TY - JOUR A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - What helps people recover from floods? BT - insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in German JF - Regional environmental change N2 - The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods. KW - Floods KW - Resilience KW - Recovery KW - Natural hazards KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 287 EP - 296 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - INPR A1 - Wellstein, Camilla A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Reineking, Bjoern A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. T1 - Understanding species and community response to environmental change - A functional trait perspective T2 - Agriculture, ecosystems & environment : an international journal for scientific research on the relationship of agriculture and food production to the biosphere KW - Functional traits KW - Functional diversity KW - Database KW - Land use KW - Management KW - Climate change KW - Landscape KW - Ecosystem function KW - Clonal plants KW - Dispersal KW - Plant growth KW - Orthoptera Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.06.024 SN - 0167-8809 VL - 145 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 4 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Rößner, Sigrid A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya JF - Nature climate change N2 - Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards. KW - Climate change KW - Cryospheric science KW - Environmental impact KW - Geomorphology Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 9 IS - 5 SP - 379 EP - 383 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bergholz, Kolja A1 - May, Felix A1 - Ristow, Michael A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - Ziv, Yaron A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient JF - Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft für Ökologie N2 - Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. KW - Climate change KW - Functional ecology KW - Plant height KW - Drought stress KW - Rainfall gradient KW - Trait-environment relationship KW - Local adaptation KW - Phenotypic plasticity Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001 SN - 1439-1791 SN - 1618-0089 VL - 25 SP - 48 EP - 58 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Norris, Jesse A1 - Carvalho, Leila M. V. A1 - Jones, Charles A1 - Cannon, Forest A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Palazzi, Elisa A1 - Tahir, Adnan Ahmad T1 - The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya. KW - WRF KW - Himalayas KW - Mesoscale KW - Precipitation KW - Climate change KW - Orographicprecipitation KW - Water resources Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3414-y SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 49 SP - 2179 EP - 2204 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Yair, Aaron A1 - Bryan, Rorke B. A1 - Lavee, Hanoch A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang A1 - Kuhn, Nikolaus J. T1 - The resilience of a badland area to climate change in an arid environment JF - Catena : an interdisciplinary journal of soil science, hydrology, geomorphology focusing on geoecology and landscape evolution N2 - Badlands have long been considered as model landscapes due to their perceived close relationship between form and process. The often intense features of erosion have also attracted many geomorphologists because the associated high rates of erosion appeared to offer the opportunity for studying surface processes and the resulting forms. Recently, the perceived simplicity of badlands has been questioned because the expected relationships between driving forces for erosion and the resulting sediment yield could not be observed. Further, a high variability in erosion and sediment yield has been observed across scales. Finally, denudation based on currently observed erosion rates would have lead to the destruction of most badlands a long time ago. While the perceived simplicity of badlands has sparked a disproportional (compared to the land surface they cover) amount of research, our increasing amount of information has not necessarily increased our understanding of badlands in equal terms. Overall, badlands appear to be more complex than initially assumed. In this paper, we review 40 years of research in the Zin Valley Badlands in Israel to reconcile some of the conflicting results observed there and develop a perspective on the function of badlands as model landscapes. While the data collected in the Zin Valley clearly confirm that spatial and temporal patterns of geomorphic processes and their interaction with topography and surface properties have to be understood, we still conclude that the process of realizing complexity in the "simple" badlands has a model function both for our understanding as well as perspective on all landscape systems. KW - Badlands KW - Model landscape KW - Climate change KW - Resilience Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2012.04.006 SN - 0341-8162 VL - 106 IS - 4 SP - 12 EP - 21 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Pfister, A. A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall JF - Journal of climate N2 - Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30% for MC and by 83% for MC+; the RL rises by 14% for MC and by 33% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature. KW - Extreme events KW - Rainfall KW - Climate change KW - Statistical techniques KW - Time series KW - Stochastic models Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1 SN - 0894-8755 SN - 1520-0442 VL - 32 IS - 22 SP - 7597 EP - 7609 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wiesmeier, Martin A1 - Prietzel, Jörg A1 - Barthold, Frauke Katrin A1 - Spörlein, Peter A1 - Geuss, Uwe A1 - Hangen, Edzard A1 - Reischl, Arthur A1 - Schilling, Bernd A1 - von Lützow, Margit A1 - Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid T1 - Storage and drivers of organic carbon in forest soils of southeast Germany (Bavaria) - Implications for carbon sequestration JF - Forest ecology and management N2 - Temperate forest soils of central Europe are regarded as important pools for soil organic carbon (SOC) and thought to have a high potential for carbon (C) sequestration. However, comprehensive data on total SOC storage, particularly under different forest types, and its drivers is limited. In this study, we analyzed a forest data set of 596 completely sampled soil profiles down to the parent material or to a depth of 1 m within Bavaria in southeast Germany in order to determine representative SOC stocks under different forest types in central Europe and the impact of different environmental parameters. We calculated a total median SOC stock of 9.8 kg m(-2) which is considerably lower compared with many other inventories within central Europe that used modelled instead of measured soil properties. Statistical analyses revealed climate as controlling parameter for the storage of SOC with increasing stocks in cool, humid mountainous regions and a strong decrease in areas with higher temperatures. No significant differences of total SOC storage were found between broadleaf, coniferous and mixed forests. However, coniferous forests stored around 35% of total SOC in the labile organic layer that is prone to human disturbance, forest fires and rising temperatures. In contrast, mixed and broadleaf forests stored the major part of SOC in the mineral soil. Moreover, these two forest types showed unchanged or even slightly increased mineral SOC stocks with higher temperatures, whereas SOC stocks in mineral soils under coniferous forest were distinctly lower. We conclude that mixed and broadleaf forests are more advantageous for C sequestration than coniferous forests. An intensified incorporation of broadleaf species in extent coniferous forests of Bavaria would prevent substantial SOC losses as a result of rising temperatures in the course of climate change. KW - Tree species effect KW - Soil organic matter KW - Climate change KW - Forest management Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.01.025 SN - 0378-1127 VL - 295 IS - 10 SP - 162 EP - 172 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Horvitz, Nir A1 - He, Yanping A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Katul, Gabriel G. T1 - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments T2 - Ecology letters N2 - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift. KW - Climate change KW - demography KW - dispersal KW - fat-tailed dispersal kernels KW - forecasting KW - forests KW - invasion by extremes KW - long-distance dispersal KW - mechanistic models KW - plant migration KW - population spread KW - range expansion KW - survival KW - wind dispersal Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x SN - 1461-023X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 211 EP - 219 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bell, M. J. A1 - Jones, E. A1 - Smith, J. A1 - Smith, P. A1 - Yeluripati, J. A1 - Augustin, Jürgen A1 - Juszczak, R. A1 - Olejnik, J. A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Simulation of soil nitrogen, nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation scenarios at 3 European cropland sites using the ECOSSE model JF - Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems N2 - The global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its long atmospheric lifetime mean its presence in the atmosphere is of major concern, and that methods are required to measure and reduce emissions. Large spatial and temporal variations means, however, that simple extrapolation of measured data is inappropriate, and that other methods of quantification are required. Although process-based models have been developed to simulate these emissions, they often require a large amount of input data that is not available at a regional scale, making regional and global emission estimates difficult to achieve. The spatial extent of organic soils means that quantification of emissions from these soil types is also required, but will not be achievable using a process-based model that has not been developed to simulate soil water contents above field capacity or organic soils. The ECOSSE model was developed to overcome these limitations, and with a requirement for only input data that is readily available at a regional scale, it can be used to quantify regional emissions and directly inform land-use change decisions. ECOSSE includes the major processes of nitrogen (N) turnover, with material being exchanged between pools of SOM at rates modified by temperature, soil moisture, soil pH and crop cover. Evaluation of its performance at site-scale is presented to demonstrate its ability to adequately simulate soil N contents and N2O emissions from cropland soils in Europe. Mitigation scenarios and sensitivity analyses are also presented to demonstrate how ECOSSE can be used to estimate the impact of future climate and land-use change on N2O emissions. KW - Soil N2O emissions KW - Process-based models KW - Land-use KW - Climate change Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-011-9479-4 SN - 1385-1314 VL - 92 IS - 2 SP - 161 EP - 181 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nitze, Ingmar A1 - Grosse, Guido A1 - Jones, Benjamin M. A1 - Romanovsky, Vladimir E. A1 - Boike, Julia T1 - Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Local observations indicate that climate change and shifting disturbance regimes are causing permafrost degradation. However, the occurrence and distribution of permafrost region disturbances (PRDs) remain poorly resolved across the Arctic and Subarctic. Here we quantify the abundance and distribution of three primary PRDs using time-series analysis of 30-m resolution Landsat imagery from 1999 to 2014. Our dataset spans four continental-scale transects in North America and Eurasia, covering ~10% of the permafrost region. Lake area loss (−1.45%) dominated the study domain with enhanced losses occurring at the boundary between discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions. Fires were the most extensive PRD across boreal regions (6.59%), but in tundra regions (0.63%) limited to Alaska. Retrogressive thaw slumps were abundant but highly localized (<10−5%). Our analysis synergizes the global-scale importance of PRDs. The findings highlight the need to include PRDs in next-generation land surface models to project the permafrost carbon feedback. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 799 KW - Carbon cycle KW - Climate change KW - Cryospheric science KW - Environmental sciences Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-426171 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 799 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wischnewski, Juliane A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Ruehland, Kathleen M. A1 - Braeuning, Achim A1 - Mischke, Steffen A1 - Smol, John P. A1 - Wang, Lily T1 - Recent ecological responses to climate variability and human impacts in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains (eastern Tibetan Plateau) inferred from pollen, diatom and tree-ring data JF - Journal of paleolimnolog N2 - The Tibetan Plateau is a region that is highly sensitive to recent global warming, but the complexity and heterogeneity of its mountainous landscape can result in variable responses. In addition, the scarcity and brevity of regional instrumental and palaeoecological records still hamper our understanding of past and present patterns of environmental change. To investigate how the remote, high-alpine environments of the Nianbaoyeze Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau, are affected by climate change and human activity over the last similar to 600 years, we compared regional tree-ring studies with pollen and diatom remains archived in the dated sediments of Dongerwuka Lake (33.22A degrees N, 101.12A degrees E, 4,307 m a.s.l.). In agreement with previous studies from the eastern Tibetan Plateau, a strong coherence between our two juniper-based tree-ring chronologies from the Nianbaoyeze and the Anemaqin Mountains was observed, with pronounced cyclical variations in summer temperature reconstructions. A positive directional trend to warmer summer temperatures in the most recent decades, was, however, not observed in the tree-ring record. Likewise, our pollen and diatom spectra showed minimal change over the investigated time period. Although modest, the most notable change in the diatom relative abundances was a subtle decrease in the dominant planktonic Cyclotella ocellata and a concurrent increase in small, benthic fragilarioid taxa in the similar to 1820s, suggesting higher ecosystem variability. The pollen record subtly indicates three periods of increased cattle grazing activity (similar to 1400-1480 AD, similar to 1630-1760 AD, after 1850 AD), but shows generally no significant vegetation changes during past similar to 600 years. The minimal changes observed in the tree-ring, diatom and pollen records are consistent with the presence of localised cooling centres that are evident in instrumental and tree-ring data within the southeastern and eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given the minor changes in regional temperature records, our complacent palaeoecological profiles suggest that climatically induced ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains region. KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - Nianbaoyeze Mountains KW - Pollen KW - Diatoms KW - Tree-ring KW - Climate change KW - Human impact Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-013-9747-1 SN - 0921-2728 SN - 1573-0417 VL - 51 IS - 2 SP - 287 EP - 302 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sommer, Robert S. A1 - Kalbe, Johannes A1 - Ekstrom, Jonas A1 - Benecke, Norbert A1 - Liljegren, Ronnie T1 - Range dynamics of the reindeer in Europe during the last 25,000 years JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Aim To understand the role and significance of the reindeer, Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758), as a specific indicator in terms of late Quaternary biogeography and to determine the effects of global climate change on its range and local extinction dynamics at the end of the Ice Age. Location Late Pleistocene/early Holocene range of reindeer over all of central and western Europe, including southern Scandinavia and northern Iberia, but excluding Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine. Methods Radiocarbon-dated subfossil records of R. tarandus from both archaeological and natural deposits younger than 25,000 years were assembled in a database. The distribution area was divided into six representative regions. The C-14 dates were calibrated and plotted chronologically in maps in order to compare presence and absence and regional extinction patterns from one region to another. Main conclusions The late Quaternary record for reindeer in Europe during the last 25 kyr shows a climate-driven dispersal and retreat in response to climate change, with regional variations. The collapse of the mammoth steppe biome did not lead to the local extinction in Europe, as in the case of other megafaunal species. Rangifer tarandus co-existed for about 3000 years during the Late Glacial and early Holocene with typical temperate species such as red deer and roe deer in non-analogue faunal communities. The regional extinction at the end of the Pleistocene coincides with the transition from light open birch/pine forests to pine/deciduous forests. KW - Climate change KW - environmental change KW - extinction KW - global change KW - late Quaternary KW - Pleistocene/Holocene transition KW - Rangifer tarandus KW - reindeer Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12193 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 41 IS - 2 SP - 298 EP - 306 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dolgener, Nicola A1 - Freudenberger, L. A1 - Schneeweiss, N. A1 - Ibisch, P. L. A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads. KW - Brandenburg KW - Climate change KW - Distribution modelling KW - Endangered species KW - Fire-bellied toad KW - Maxent Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 1063 EP - 1072 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Luis Horreo, Jose A1 - Luisa Pelaez, Maria A1 - Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne A1 - Suarez, Teresa A1 - Urieta, Maria A1 - Fitze, Patrick S. T1 - Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard JF - European journal of wildlife research N2 - Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species’ adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area. KW - Climate change KW - Conservation KW - First-generation migrant KW - gene flow KW - IBD KW - Zootoca vivipara Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6 SN - 1612-4642 SN - 1439-0574 VL - 65 IS - 1 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lemke, Isgard H. A1 - Kolb, Annette A1 - Graae, Bente J. A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Acharya, Kamal P. A1 - Blandino, Cristina A1 - Brunet, Jorg A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, Sara A. O. A1 - Decocq, Guillaume A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Hermy, Martin A1 - Liira, Jaan A1 - Schmucki, Reto A1 - Shevtsova, Anna A1 - Verheyen, Kris A1 - Diekmann, Martin T1 - Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change. KW - Climate change KW - Global environmental change KW - Milium effusum KW - Phenotypic plasticity KW - Intraspecific variation KW - Stachys sylvatica Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-015-0534-0 SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 216 IS - 11 SP - 1523 EP - 1536 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wischnewski, Juliane A1 - Mackay, Anson W. A1 - Appleby, Peter G. A1 - Mischke, Steffen A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Modest diatom responses to regional warming on the southeast Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries JF - Journal of paleolimnolog N2 - A general mean annual temperature increase accompanied with substantial glacial retreat has been noted on the Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries but most significantly since the mid 1950s. These climate trends are particularly apparent on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, the Tibetan Plateau (due to its heterogeneous mountain landscape) has very complex and spatially differing temperature and precipitations patterns. As a result, intensive palaeolimnological investigations are necessary to decipher these climatic patterns and to understand ecological responses to recent environmental change. Here we present palaeolimnological results from a (210)Pb/(137)Cs-dated sediment core spanning approximately the last 200 years from a remote high-mountain lake (LC6 Lake, working name) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Sediment profiles of diatoms, organic variables (TOC, C:N) and grain size were investigated. The (210)Pb record suggests a period of rapid sedimentation, which might be linked to major tectonic events in the region ca. 1950. Furthermore, unusually high (210)Pb supply rates over the last 50 years suggest that the lake has possibly been subjected to increasing precipitation rates, sediment focussing and/or increased spring thaw. The majority of diatom taxa encountered in the core are typical of slightly acidic to circumneutral, oligotrophic, electrolyte-poor lakes. Diatom species assemblages were rich, and dominated by Cyclotella sp., Achnanthes sp., Aulacoseira sp. and fragilarioid taxa. Diatom compositional change was minimal over the 200-year period (DCCA = 0.85 SD, p = 0.59); only a slightly more diverse but unstable diatom assemblage was recorded during the past 50 years. The results indicate that large-scale environmental changes recorded in the twentieth century (i.e. increased precipitation and temperatures) are likely having an affect on the LC6 Lake, but so far these impacts are more apparent on the lake geochemistry than on the diatom flora. Local and/or regional peculiarities, such as increasing precipitation and cloud cover, or localized climatic phenomena, such as negative climate feedbacks, might have offset the effects of increasing mean surface temperatures. KW - Diatoms KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - Mountain lake KW - Climate change KW - Lake sediments KW - Palaeolimnology Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-011-9533-x SN - 0921-2728 VL - 46 IS - 2 SP - 215 EP - 227 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Trauth, Martin H. T1 - Modelling vegetation change during Late Cenozoic uplift of the East African plateaus JF - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences N2 - The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level. KW - Dynamic vegetation models KW - Palaeovegetation KW - Evolution KW - Late Cenozoic KW - East Africa KW - Climate change Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.007 SN - 0031-0182 SN - 1872-616X VL - 467 SP - 120 EP - 130 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schaldach, Rüdiger A1 - Wimmer, Florian A1 - Koch, Jennifer A1 - Volland, Jan A1 - Geissler, Katja A1 - Köchy, Martin T1 - Model-based analysis of the environmental impacts of grazing management on Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems in Jordan JF - Journal of environmental management N2 - Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to desertification when under grazing pressure. Therefore, management of grazing intensity plays a crucial role to avoid or to diminish land degradation and to sustain both livelihoods and ecosystem functioning. The dynamic land-use model LandSHIFT was applied to a case study on the country level for Jordan. The impacts of different stocking densities on the environment were assessed through a set of simulation experiments for various combinations of climate input and assumptions about the development of livestock numbers. Indicators used for the analysis include a set of landscape metrics to account for habitat fragmentation and the "Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production" (HANPP), i.e., the difference between the amount of net primary production (NPP) that would be available in a natural ecosystem and the amount of NPP that remains under human management. Additionally, the potential of the economic valuation of ecosystem services, including landscape and grazing services, as an analysis concept was explored. We found that lower management intensities had a positive effect on HANPP but at the same time resulted in a strong increase of grazing area. This effect was even more pronounced under climate change due to a predominantly negative effect on the biomass productivity of grazing land. Also Landscape metrics tend to indicate decreasing habitat fragmentation as a consequence of lower grazing pressure. The valuation of ecosystem services revealed that low grazing intensity can lead to a comparatively higher economic value on the country level average. The results from our study underline the importance of considering grazing management as an important factor to manage dry-land ecosystems in a sustainable manner. KW - Sustainable management of Mediterranean grazing land KW - Land-use modeling KW - Climate change KW - Landscape metrics KW - Ecosystem service value KW - Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.024 SN - 0301-4797 SN - 1095-8630 VL - 127 IS - 9 SP - S84 EP - S95 PB - Elsevier CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - De Frenne, P. A1 - Brunet, J. A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, S. A. O. A1 - De Backer, L. A1 - Diekmann, M. A1 - Graae, B. J. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Kolb, A. A1 - Naaf, T. A1 - Plue, J. A1 - Selvi, F. A1 - Strimbeck, G. R. A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography. KW - Acer platanoides KW - Acer pseudoplatanus KW - Climate change KW - Seed traits KW - Latitudinal gradient Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0343-x SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 215 IS - 8 SP - 911 EP - 925 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -