TY - JOUR A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Weindl, Isabelle A1 - Rauner, Sebastian A1 - Dirnaichner, Alois A1 - Ruhe, Constantin A1 - Hofmann, Matthias A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Leininger, Julia A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Pehl, Michaja A1 - Wingens, Christopher A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Beier, Felicitas A1 - Dietrich, Jan Philipp A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - von Jeetze, Patrick A1 - Klein, David A1 - Koch, Johannes A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Popp, Alexander T1 - A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda JF - Nature climate change N2 - Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate-change policy KW - socioeconomic scenarios KW - sustainability Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 8 SP - 656 EP - 664 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Popp, Alexander T1 - Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty JF - Nature Communications N2 - Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (-6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries. Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 12 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schultes, Anselm A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar T1 - Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only. KW - climate change KW - climate mitigation KW - climate impacts KW - integrated assessment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 10 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER -