TY  - JOUR
A1  - Middeldorp, Christel M.
A1  - Mahajan, Anubha
A1  - Horikoshi, Momoko
A1  - Robertson, Neil R.
A1  - Beaumont, Robin N.
A1  - Bradfield, Jonathan P.
A1  - Bustamante, Mariona
A1  - Cousminer, Diana L.
A1  - Day, Felix R.
A1  - De Silva, N. Maneka
A1  - Guxens, Monica
A1  - Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O.
A1  - St Pourcain, Beate
A1  - Warrington, Nicole M.
A1  - Adair, Linda S.
A1  - Ahlqvist, Emma
A1  - Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh
A1  - Almgren, Peter
A1  - Ang, Wei
A1  - Atalay, Mustafa
A1  - Auvinen, Juha
A1  - Bartels, Meike
A1  - Beckmann, Jacques S.
A1  - Bilbao, Jose Ramon
A1  - Bond, Tom
A1  - Borja, Judith B.
A1  - Cavadino, Alana
A1  - Charoen, Pimphen
A1  - Chen, Zhanghua
A1  - Coin, Lachlan
A1  - Cooper, Cyrus
A1  - Curtin, John A.
A1  - Custovic, Adnan
A1  - Das, Shikta
A1  - Davies, Gareth E.
A1  - Dedoussis, George V.
A1  - Duijts, Liesbeth
A1  - Eastwood, Peter R.
A1  - Eliasen, Anders U.
A1  - Elliott, Paul
A1  - Eriksson, Johan G.
A1  - Estivill, Xavier
A1  - Fadista, Joao
A1  - Fedko, Iryna O.
A1  - Frayling, Timothy M.
A1  - Gaillard, Romy
A1  - Gauderman, W. James
A1  - Geller, Frank
A1  - Gilliland, Frank
A1  - Gilsanz, Vincente
A1  - Granell, Raquel
A1  - Grarup, Niels
A1  - Groop, Leif
A1  - Hadley, Dexter
A1  - Hakonarson, Hakon
A1  - Hansen, Torben
A1  - Hartman, Catharina A.
A1  - Hattersley, Andrew T.
A1  - Hayes, M. Geoffrey
A1  - Hebebrand, Johannes
A1  - Heinrich, Joachim
A1  - Helgeland, Oyvind
A1  - Henders, Anjali K.
A1  - Henderson, John
A1  - Henriksen, Tine B.
A1  - Hirschhorn, Joel N.
A1  - Hivert, Marie-France
A1  - Hocher, Berthold
A1  - Holloway, John W.
A1  - Holt, Patrick
A1  - Hottenga, Jouke-Jan
A1  - Hypponen, Elina
A1  - Iniguez, Carmen
A1  - Johansson, Stefan
A1  - Jugessur, Astanand
A1  - Kahonen, Mika
A1  - Kalkwarf, Heidi J.
A1  - Kaprio, Jaakko
A1  - Karhunen, Ville
A1  - Kemp, John P.
A1  - Kerkhof, Marjan
A1  - Koppelman, Gerard H.
A1  - Korner, Antje
A1  - Kotecha, Sailesh
A1  - Kreiner-Moller, Eskil
A1  - Kulohoma, Benard
A1  - Kumar, Ashish
A1  - Kutalik, Zoltan
A1  - Lahti, Jari
A1  - Lappe, Joan M.
A1  - Larsson, Henrik
A1  - Lehtimaki, Terho
A1  - Lewin, Alexandra M.
A1  - Li, Jin
A1  - Lichtenstein, Paul
A1  - Lindgren, Cecilia M.
A1  - Lindi, Virpi
A1  - Linneberg, Allan
A1  - Liu, Xueping
A1  - Liu, Jun
A1  - Lowe, William L.
A1  - Lundstrom, Sebastian
A1  - Lyytikainen, Leo-Pekka
A1  - Ma, Ronald C. W.
A1  - Mace, Aurelien
A1  - Magi, Reedik
A1  - Magnus, Per
A1  - Mamun, Abdullah A.
A1  - Mannikko, Minna
A1  - Martin, Nicholas G.
A1  - Mbarek, Hamdi
A1  - McCarthy, Nina S.
A1  - Medland, Sarah E.
A1  - Melbye, Mads
A1  - Melen, Erik
A1  - Mohlke, Karen L.
A1  - Monnereau, Claire
A1  - Morgen, Camilla S.
A1  - Morris, Andrew P.
A1  - Murray, Jeffrey C.
A1  - Myhre, Ronny
A1  - Najman, Jackob M.
A1  - Nivard, Michel G.
A1  - Nohr, Ellen A.
A1  - Nolte, Ilja M.
A1  - Ntalla, Ioanna
A1  - Oberfield, Sharon E.
A1  - Oken, Emily
A1  - Oldehinkel, Albertine J.
A1  - Pahkala, Katja
A1  - Palviainen, Teemu
A1  - Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope
A1  - Pedersen, Oluf
A1  - Pennell, Craig E.
A1  - Pershagen, Goran
A1  - Pitkanen, Niina
A1  - Plomin, Robert
A1  - Power, Christine
A1  - Prasad, Rashmi B.
A1  - Prokopenko, Inga
A1  - Pulkkinen, Lea
A1  - Raikkonen, Katri
A1  - Raitakari, Olli T.
A1  - Reynolds, Rebecca M.
A1  - Richmond, Rebecca C.
A1  - Rivadeneira, Fernando
A1  - Rodriguez, Alina
A1  - Rose, Richard J.
A1  - Salem, Rany
A1  - Santa-Marina, Loreto
A1  - Saw, Seang-Mei
A1  - Schnurr, Theresia M.
A1  - Scott, James G.
A1  - Selzam, Saskia
A1  - Shepherd, John A.
A1  - Simpson, Angela
A1  - Skotte, Line
A1  - Sleiman, Patrick M. A.
A1  - Snieder, Harold
A1  - Sorensen, Thorkild I. A.
A1  - Standl, Marie
A1  - Steegers, Eric A. P.
A1  - Strachan, David P.
A1  - Straker, Leon
A1  - Strandberg, Timo
A1  - Taylor, Michelle
A1  - Teo, Yik-Ying
A1  - Thiering, Elisabeth
A1  - Torrent, Maties
A1  - Tyrrell, Jessica
A1  - Uitterlinden, Andre G.
A1  - van Beijsterveldt, Toos
A1  - van der Most, Peter J.
A1  - van Duijn, Cornelia M.
A1  - Viikari, Jorma
A1  - Vilor-Tejedor, Natalia
A1  - Vogelezang, Suzanne
A1  - Vonk, Judith M.
A1  - Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M.
A1  - Vuoksimaa, Eero
A1  - Wang, Carol A.
A1  - Watkins, William J.
A1  - Wichmann, H-Erich
A1  - Willemsen, Gonneke
A1  - Williams, Gail M.
A1  - Wilson, James F.
A1  - Wray, Naomi R.
A1  - Xu, Shujing
A1  - Xu, Cheng-Jian
A1  - Yaghootkar, Hanieh
A1  - Yi, Lu
A1  - Zafarmand, Mohammad Hadi
A1  - Zeggini, Eleftheria
A1  - Zemel, Babette S.
A1  - Hinney, Anke
A1  - Lakka, Timo A.
A1  - Whitehouse, Andrew J. O.
A1  - Sunyer, Jordi
A1  - Widen, Elisabeth E.
A1  - Feenstra, Bjarke
A1  - Sebert, Sylvain
A1  - Jacobsson, Bo
A1  - Njolstad, Pal R.
A1  - Stoltenberg, Camilla
A1  - Smith, George Davey
A1  - Lawlor, Debbie A.
A1  - Paternoster, Lavinia
A1  - Timpson, Nicholas J.
A1  - Ong, Ken K.
A1  - Bisgaard, Hans
A1  - Bonnelykke, Klaus
A1  - Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.
A1  - Tiemeier, Henning
A1  - Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta
A1  - Evans, David M.
A1  - Perry, John R. B.
A1  - Grant, Struan F. A.
A1  - Boomsma, Dorret I.
A1  - Freathy, Rachel M.
A1  - McCarthy, Mark I.
A1  - Felix, Janine F.
T1  - The Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia
BT  - design, results and future prospects
JF  - European journal of epidemiology
N2  - The impact of many unfavorable childhood traits or diseases, such as low birth weight and mental disorders, is not limited to childhood and adolescence, as they are also associated with poor outcomes in adulthood, such as cardiovascular disease. Insight into the genetic etiology of childhood and adolescent traits and disorders may therefore provide new perspectives, not only on how to improve wellbeing during childhood, but also how to prevent later adverse outcomes. To achieve the sample sizes required for genetic research, the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia were established. The majority of the participating cohorts are longitudinal population-based samples, but other cohorts with data on early childhood phenotypes are also involved. Cohorts often have a broad focus and collect(ed) data on various somatic and psychiatric traits as well as environmental factors. Genetic variants have been successfully identified for multiple traits, for example, birth weight, atopic dermatitis, childhood BMI, allergic sensitization, and pubertal growth. Furthermore, the results have shown that genetic factors also partly underlie the association with adult traits. As sample sizes are still increasing, it is expected that future analyses will identify additional variants. This, in combination with the development of innovative statistical methods, will provide detailed insight on the mechanisms underlying the transition from childhood to adult disorders. Both consortia welcome new collaborations. Policies and contact details are available from the corresponding authors of this manuscript and/or the consortium websites.
KW  - Genetics
KW  - Consortium
KW  - Childhood traits and disorders
KW  - Longitudinal
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-019-00502-9
SN  - 0393-2990
SN  - 1573-7284
VL  - 34
IS  - 3
SP  - 279
EP  - 300
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Warrington, Nicole
A1  - Beaumont, Robin
A1  - Horikoshi, Momoko
A1  - Day, Felix R.
A1  - Helgeland, Øyvind
A1  - Laurin, Charles
A1  - Bacelis, Jonas
A1  - Peng, Shouneng
A1  - Hao, Ke
A1  - Feenstra, Bjarke
A1  - Wood, Andrew R.
A1  - Mahajan, Anubha
A1  - Tyrrell, Jessica
A1  - Robertson, Neil R.
A1  - Rayner, N. William
A1  - Qiao, Zhen
A1  - Moen, Gunn-Helen
A1  - Vaudel, Marc
A1  - Marsit, Carmen
A1  - Chen, Jia
A1  - Nodzenski, Michael
A1  - Schnurr, Theresia M.
A1  - Zafarmand, Mohammad Hadi
A1  - Bradfield, Jonathan P.
A1  - Grarup, Niels
A1  - Kooijman, Marjolein N.
A1  - Li-Gao, Ruifang
A1  - Geller, Frank
A1  - Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh
A1  - Paternoster, Lavinia
A1  - Rueedi, Rico
A1  - Huikari, Ville
A1  - Hottenga, Jouke-Jan
A1  - Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka
A1  - Cavadino, Alana
A1  - Metrustry, Sarah
A1  - Cousminer, Diana L.
A1  - Wu, Ying
A1  - Thiering, Elisabeth Paula
A1  - Wang, Carol A.
A1  - Have, Christian Theil
A1  - Vilor-Tejedor, Natalia
A1  - Joshi, Peter K.
A1  - Painter, Jodie N.
A1  - Ntalla, Ioanna
A1  - Myhre, Ronny
A1  - Pitkänen, Niina
A1  - van Leeuwen, Elisabeth M.
A1  - Joro, Raimo
A1  - Lagou, Vasiliki
A1  - Richmond, Rebecca C.
A1  - Espinosa, Ana
A1  - Barton, Sheila J.
A1  - Inskip, Hazel M.
A1  - Holloway, John W.
A1  - Santa-Marina, Loreto
A1  - Estivill, Xavier
A1  - Ang, Wei
A1  - Marsh, Julie A.
A1  - Reichetzeder, Christoph
A1  - Marullo, Letizia
A1  - Hocher, Berthold
A1  - Lunetta, Kathryn L.
A1  - Murabito, Joanne M.
A1  - Relton, Caroline L.
A1  - Kogevinas, Manolis
A1  - Chatzi, Leda
A1  - Allard, Catherine
A1  - Bouchard, Luigi
A1  - Hivert, Marie-France
A1  - Zhang, Ge
A1  - Muglia, Louis J.
A1  - Heikkinen, Jani
A1  - Morgen, Camilla S.
A1  - van Kampen, Antoine H. C.
A1  - van Schaik, Barbera D. C.
A1  - Mentch, Frank D.
A1  - Langenberg, Claudia
A1  - Scott, Robert A.
A1  - Zhao, Jing Hua
A1  - Hemani, Gibran
A1  - Ring, Susan M.
A1  - Bennett, Amanda J.
A1  - Gaulton, Kyle J.
A1  - Fernandez-Tajes, Juan
A1  - van Zuydam, Natalie R.
A1  - Medina-Gomez, Carolina
A1  - de Haan, Hugoline G.
A1  - Rosendaal, Frits R.
A1  - Kutalik, Zoltán
A1  - Marques-Vidal, Pedro
A1  - Das, Shikta
A1  - Willemsen, Gonneke
A1  - Mbarek, Hamdi
A1  - Müller-Nurasyid, Martina
A1  - Standl, Marie
A1  - Appel, Emil V. R.
A1  - Fonvig, Cilius Esmann
A1  - Trier, Caecilie
A1  - van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E. M.
A1  - Murcia, Mario
A1  - Bustamante, Mariona
A1  - Bonàs-Guarch, Sílvia
A1  - Hougaard, David M.
A1  - Mercader, Josep M.
A1  - Linneberg, Allan
A1  - Schraut, Katharina E.
A1  - Lind, Penelope A.
A1  - Medland, Sarah Elizabeth
A1  - Shields, Beverley M.
A1  - Knight, Bridget A.
A1  - Chai, Jin-Fang
A1  - Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope
A1  - Bartels, Meike
A1  - Sánchez, Friman
A1  - Stokholm, Jakob
A1  - Torrents, David
A1  - Vinding, Rebecca K.
A1  - Willems, Sara M.
A1  - Atalay, Mustafa
A1  - Chawes, Bo L.
A1  - Kovacs, Peter
A1  - Prokopenko, Inga
A1  - Tuke, Marcus A.
A1  - Yaghootkar, Hanieh
A1  - Ruth, Katherine S.
A1  - Jones, Samuel E.
A1  - Loh, Po-Ru
A1  - Murray, Anna
A1  - Weedon, Michael N.
A1  - Tönjes, Anke
A1  - Stumvoll, Michael
A1  - Michaelsen, Kim Fleischer
A1  - Eloranta, Aino-Maija
A1  - Lakka, Timo A.
A1  - van Duijn, Cornelia M.
A1  - Kiess, Wieland
A1  - Koerner, Antje
A1  - Niinikoski, Harri
A1  - Pahkala, Katja
A1  - Raitakari, Olli T.
A1  - Jacobsson, Bo
A1  - Zeggini, Eleftheria
A1  - Dedoussis, George V.
A1  - Teo, Yik-Ying
A1  - Saw, Seang-Mei
A1  - Montgomery, Grant W.
A1  - Campbell, Harry
A1  - Wilson, James F.
A1  - Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M.
A1  - Vrijheid, Martine
A1  - de Geus, Eco J. C. N.
A1  - Hayes, M. Geoffrey
A1  - Kadarmideen, Haja N.
A1  - Holm, Jens-Christian
A1  - Beilin, Lawrence J.
A1  - Pennell, Craig E.
A1  - Heinrich, Joachim
A1  - Adair, Linda S.
A1  - Borja, Judith B.
A1  - Mohlke, Karen L.
A1  - Eriksson, Johan G.
A1  - Widen, Elisabeth E.
A1  - Hattersley, Andrew T.
A1  - Spector, Tim D.
A1  - Kaehoenen, Mika
A1  - Viikari, Jorma S.
A1  - Lehtimaeki, Terho
A1  - Boomsma, Dorret I.
A1  - Sebert, Sylvain
A1  - Vollenweider, Peter
A1  - Sorensen, Thorkild I. A.
A1  - Bisgaard, Hans
A1  - Bonnelykke, Klaus
A1  - Murray, Jeffrey C.
A1  - Melbye, Mads
A1  - Nohr, Ellen A.
A1  - Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O.
A1  - Rivadeneira, Fernando
A1  - Hofman, Albert
A1  - Felix, Janine F.
A1  - Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.
A1  - Hansen, Torben
A1  - Pisinger, Charlotta
A1  - Vaag, Allan A.
A1  - Pedersen, Oluf
A1  - Uitterlinden, Andre G.
A1  - Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta
A1  - Power, Christine
A1  - Hypponen, Elina
A1  - Scholtens, Denise M.
A1  - Lowe, William L.
A1  - Smith, George Davey
A1  - Timpson, Nicholas J.
A1  - Morris, Andrew P.
A1  - Wareham, Nicholas J.
A1  - Hakonarson, Hakon
A1  - Grant, Struan F. A.
A1  - Frayling, Timothy M.
A1  - Lawlor, Debbie A.
A1  - Njolstad, Pal R.
A1  - Johansson, Stefan
A1  - Ong, Ken K.
A1  - McCarthy, Mark I.
A1  - Perry, John R. B.
A1  - Evans, David M.
A1  - Freathy, Rachel M.
T1  - Maternal and fetal genetic effects on birth weight and their relevance to cardio-metabolic risk factors
JF  - Nature genetics
N2  - Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.
Y1  - 2019
SN  - 1061-4036
SN  - 1546-1718
VL  - 51
IS  - 5
SP  - 804
EP  - +
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - New York
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kikstra, Jarmo S.
A1  - Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
A1  - Smith, Christopher J.
A1  - Lewis, Jared
A1  - Lamboll, Robin D.
A1  - Byers, Edward
A1  - Sandstad, Marit
A1  - Meinshausen, Malte
A1  - Gidden, Matthew J.
A1  - Rogelj, Joeri
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Peters, Glen P.
A1  - Fuglestvedt, Jan S.
A1  - Skeie, Ragnhild B.
A1  - Samset, Bjørn H.
A1  - Wienpahl, Laura
A1  - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
A1  - van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar
A1  - Al Khourdajie, Alaa
A1  - Forster, Piers M.
A1  - Reisinger, Andy
A1  - Schaeffer, Roberto
A1  - Riahi, Keywan
T1  - The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways
BT  - from emissions to global temperatures
JF  - Geoscientific model development
N2  - While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the “climate-assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 ∘C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ∘C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ∘C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 ∘C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 ∘C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a “climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts.
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
SN  - 1991-959X
SN  - 1991-9603
VL  - 15
IS  - 24
SP  - 9075
EP  - 9109
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Nowicki, Sophie
A1  - Payne, Antony J.
A1  - Goelzer, Heiko
A1  - Lipscomb, William H.
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Agosta, Cecile
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Asay-Davis, Xylar
A1  - Barthel, Alice
A1  - Calov, Reinhard
A1  - Cullather, Richard
A1  - Dumas, Christophe
A1  - Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
A1  - Gladstone, Rupert
A1  - Golledge, Nicholas R.
A1  - Gregory, Jonathan M.
A1  - Greve, Ralf
A1  - Hattermann, Tore
A1  - Hoffman, Matthew J.
A1  - Humbert, Angelika
A1  - Huybrechts, Philippe
A1  - Jourdain, Nicolas C.
A1  - Kleiner, Thomas
A1  - Larour, Eric
A1  - Leguy, Gunter R.
A1  - Lowry, Daniel P.
A1  - Little, Chistopher M.
A1  - Morlighem, Mathieu
A1  - Pattyn, Frank
A1  - Pelle, Tyler
A1  - Price, Stephen F.
A1  - Quiquet, Aurelien
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
A1  - Shepherd, Andrew
A1  - Simon, Erika
A1  - Smith, Robin S.
A1  - Straneo, Fiammetta
A1  - Sun, Sainan
A1  - Trusel, Luke D.
A1  - Van Breedam, Jonas
A1  - van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Zhao, Chen
A1  - Zhang, Tong
A1  - Zwinger, Thomas
T1  - ISMIP6 Antarctica
BT  - a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 9
SP  - 3033
EP  - 3070
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  -