TY - GEN A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Elliott, J. A1 - Heinke, J. A1 - Arneth, A. A1 - Bierkens, M. F. P. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Clark, D. B. A1 - Deryng, D. A1 - Doell, P. A1 - Falloon, P. A1 - Fekete, B. A1 - Folberth, Christian A1 - Friend, A. D. A1 - Gellhorn, C. A1 - Gosling, S. N. A1 - Haddeland, I. A1 - Khabarov, N. A1 - Lomas, M. A1 - Masaki, Y. A1 - Nishina, K. A1 - Neumann, K. A1 - Oki, T. A1 - Pavlick, R. A1 - Ruane, A. C. A1 - Schmid, E. A1 - Schmitz, C. A1 - Stacke, T. A1 - Stehfest, E. A1 - Tang, Q. A1 - Wisser, D. A1 - Huber, V. A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Warszawski, L. A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections BT - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties T2 - Earth system dynamics N2 - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 457 KW - global food demand KW - water availability KW - elevated CO2 KW - future KW - carbon KW - system KW - productivity KW - agriculture KW - emissions KW - scarcity Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Elliott, J. A1 - Heinke, Jens A1 - Arneth, A. A1 - Bierkens, M. F. P. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Clark, D. B. A1 - Deryng, D. A1 - Doell, P. A1 - Falloon, P. A1 - Fekete, B. A1 - Folberth, Christian A1 - Friend, A. D. A1 - Gellhorn, C. A1 - Gosling, S. N. A1 - Haddeland, I. A1 - Khabarov, N. A1 - Lomas, M. A1 - Masaki, Y. A1 - Nishina, K. A1 - Neumann, K. A1 - Oki, T. A1 - Pavlick, R. A1 - Ruane, A. C. A1 - Schmid, E. A1 - Schmitz, C. A1 - Stacke, T. A1 - Stehfest, E. A1 - Tang, Q. A1 - Wisser, D. A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Warszawski, Lila A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections BT - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 6 IS - 2 SP - 447 EP - 460 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Janssen, Annette B. G. A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Beusen, Arthur A1 - Bolding, Karsten A1 - Bruce, Louise A1 - Bruggeman, Jorn A1 - Couture, Raoul-Marie A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Frassl, Marieke A. A1 - Gal, Gideon A1 - Gerla, Daan J. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - Hu, Fenjuan A1 - Ives, Stephen C. A1 - Janse, Jan H. A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Joehnk, Klaus D. A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Kong, Xiangzhen A1 - Kuiper, Jan J. A1 - Lehmann, Moritz K. A1 - Lemmen, Carsten A1 - Oezkundakci, Deniz A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Robson, Barbara J. A1 - Sachse, Rene A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Schmid, Martin A1 - Scholten, Huub A1 - Teurlincx, Sven A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Troost, Tineke A. A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Gerven, Luuk P. A. A1 - Weijerman, Mariska A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. T1 - Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective JF - Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments N2 - Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary. KW - Water quality KW - Ecology KW - Geochemistry KW - Hydrology KW - Hydraulics KW - Hydrodynamics KW - Physical environment KW - Socio-economics KW - Model availability KW - Standardization KW - Linking Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-015-9544-1 SN - 1386-2588 SN - 1573-5125 VL - 49 IS - 4 SP - 513 EP - 548 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - GEN A1 - Davos, C. H. A1 - Doherty, P. A1 - Voller, Heinz A1 - Salzwedel, Annett A1 - Saure, D. A1 - Metzendorf, M. I. A1 - Jensen, K. A1 - Schmid, J. P. A1 - Rauch, B. T1 - The prognostic effect of cardiac rehabilitation in the era of acute revascularization and statin therapy: the cardiac rehabilitation outcome study (CROS) T2 - European heart journal Y1 - 2016 SN - 0195-668X SN - 1522-9645 VL - 37 SP - 645 EP - 645 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hector, Andy A1 - Hautier, Yann A1 - Saner, Philippe A1 - Wacker, Lukas A1 - Bagchi, Robert A1 - Joshi, Jasmin Radha A1 - Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael A1 - Spehn, Eva M. A1 - Bazeley-White, Ellen A1 - Weilenmann, Markus A1 - Caldeira, Maria da Conceição Brálio de Brito A1 - Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G. A1 - Finn, John A. A1 - Huss-Danell, Kerstin A1 - Jumpponen, Ari A1 - Mulder, Christa P. H. A1 - Palmborg, Cecilia A1 - Pereira, J. S. A1 - Siamantziouras, Akis S. D. A1 - Terry, Andrew C. A1 - Troumbis, Andreas Y. A1 - Schmid, Bernhard A1 - Loreau, Michel T1 - General stabilizing effects of plant diversity on grassland productivity through population asynchrony and overyielding N2 - Insurance effects of biodiversity can stabilize the functioning of multispecies ecosystems against environmental variability when differential species' responses lead to asynchronous population dynamics. When responses are not perfectly positively correlated, declines in some populations are compensated by increases in others, smoothing variability in ecosystem productivity. This variance reduction effect of biodiversity is analogous to the risk- spreading benefits of diverse investment portfolios in financial markets. We use data from the BIODEPTH network of grassland biodiversity experiments to perform a general test for stabilizing effects of plant diversity on the temporal variability of individual species, functional groups, and aggregate communities. We tested three potential mechanisms: reduction of temporal variability through population asynchrony; enhancement of long-term average performance through positive selection effects; and increases in the temporal mean due to overyielding. Our results support a stabilizing effect of diversity on the temporal variability of grassland aboveground annual net primary production through two mechanisms. Two-species communities with greater population asynchrony were more stable in their average production over time due to compensatory fluctuations. Overyielding also stabilized productivity by increasing levels of average biomass production relative to temporal variability. However, there was no evidence for a performance-enhancing effect on the temporal mean through positive selection effects. In combination with previous work, our results suggest that stabilizing effects of diversity on community productivity through population asynchrony and overyielding appear to be general in grassland ecosystems. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://esapubs.org/esapubs/journals/ecology.htm SN - 0012-9658 ER -