TY - GEN A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Elliott, J. A1 - Heinke, J. A1 - Arneth, A. A1 - Bierkens, M. F. P. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Clark, D. B. A1 - Deryng, D. A1 - Doell, P. A1 - Falloon, P. A1 - Fekete, B. A1 - Folberth, Christian A1 - Friend, A. D. A1 - Gellhorn, C. A1 - Gosling, S. N. A1 - Haddeland, I. A1 - Khabarov, N. A1 - Lomas, M. A1 - Masaki, Y. A1 - Nishina, K. A1 - Neumann, K. A1 - Oki, T. A1 - Pavlick, R. A1 - Ruane, A. C. A1 - Schmid, E. A1 - Schmitz, C. A1 - Stacke, T. A1 - Stehfest, E. A1 - Tang, Q. A1 - Wisser, D. A1 - Huber, V. A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Warszawski, L. A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections BT - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties T2 - Earth system dynamics N2 - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 457 KW - global food demand KW - water availability KW - elevated CO2 KW - future KW - carbon KW - system KW - productivity KW - agriculture KW - emissions KW - scarcity Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Elliott, J. A1 - Heinke, Jens A1 - Arneth, A. A1 - Bierkens, M. F. P. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Clark, D. B. A1 - Deryng, D. A1 - Doell, P. A1 - Falloon, P. A1 - Fekete, B. A1 - Folberth, Christian A1 - Friend, A. D. A1 - Gellhorn, C. A1 - Gosling, S. N. A1 - Haddeland, I. A1 - Khabarov, N. A1 - Lomas, M. A1 - Masaki, Y. A1 - Nishina, K. A1 - Neumann, K. A1 - Oki, T. A1 - Pavlick, R. A1 - Ruane, A. C. A1 - Schmid, E. A1 - Schmitz, C. A1 - Stacke, T. A1 - Stehfest, E. A1 - Tang, Q. A1 - Wisser, D. A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Warszawski, Lila A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections BT - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 6 IS - 2 SP - 447 EP - 460 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, B. A1 - Zimmermann, Alexander A1 - Scheckenbach, H. L. A1 - Schmid, T. A1 - Hall, Jefferson. S. A1 - van Breugel, Michiel T1 - Changes in rainfall interception along a secondary forest succession gradient in lowland Panama JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - Secondary forests are rapidly expanding in tropical regions. Yet, despite the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of land-cover dynamics, the relationship between forest succession and canopy interception is poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because rainfall interception plays an important role in regional water cycles and needs to be quantified for many modeling purposes. To help close this knowledge gap, we designed a throughfall monitoring study along a secondary succession gradient in a tropical forest region of Panama. The investigated gradient comprised 20 forest patches 3 to 130 yr old. We sampled each patch with a minimum of 20 funnel-type throughfall collectors over a continuous 2month period that had nearly 900 mm of rain. During the same period, we acquired forest inventory data and derived several forest structural attributes. We then applied simple and multiple regression models (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and identified those vegetation parameters that had the strongest influence on the variation of canopy interception. Our analyses yielded three main findings. First, canopy interception changed rapidly during forest succession. After only a decade, throughfall volumes approached levels that are typical for mature forests. Second, a parsimonious (simple linear regression) model based on the ratio of the basal area of small stems to the total basal area outperformed more complex multivariate models (BMA approach). Third, based on complementary forest inventory data, we show that the influence of young secondary forests on interception in realworld fragmented landscapes might be detectable only in regions with a substantial fraction of young forests. Our re-sults suggest that where entire catchments undergo forest regrowth, initial stages of succession may be associated with a substantial decrease of streamflow generation. Our results further highlight the need to study hydrological processes in all forest succession stages, including early ones. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4659-2013 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 17 IS - 11 SP - 4659 EP - 4670 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Janssen, Annette B. G. A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Beusen, Arthur A1 - Bolding, Karsten A1 - Bruce, Louise A1 - Bruggeman, Jorn A1 - Couture, Raoul-Marie A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Frassl, Marieke A. A1 - Gal, Gideon A1 - Gerla, Daan J. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - Hu, Fenjuan A1 - Ives, Stephen C. A1 - Janse, Jan H. A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Joehnk, Klaus D. A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Kong, Xiangzhen A1 - Kuiper, Jan J. A1 - Lehmann, Moritz K. A1 - Lemmen, Carsten A1 - Oezkundakci, Deniz A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Robson, Barbara J. A1 - Sachse, Rene A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Schmid, Martin A1 - Scholten, Huub A1 - Teurlincx, Sven A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Troost, Tineke A. A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Gerven, Luuk P. A. A1 - Weijerman, Mariska A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. T1 - Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective JF - Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments N2 - Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary. KW - Water quality KW - Ecology KW - Geochemistry KW - Hydrology KW - Hydraulics KW - Hydrodynamics KW - Physical environment KW - Socio-economics KW - Model availability KW - Standardization KW - Linking Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-015-9544-1 SN - 1386-2588 SN - 1573-5125 VL - 49 IS - 4 SP - 513 EP - 548 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Riedel, K. A1 - Beyersdorf-Radeck, Baerbel A1 - Neumann, B. A1 - Scheller, Frieder W. A1 - Schmid, Rolf D. T1 - Microbial sensors for determination of aromatics and their chloro derivatives. Part III: Determination of chlorinated phenols using a biosensor containing Trichosporon beigelii (cutaneum) Y1 - 1995 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Moradi, H. A1 - Fakheran, S. A1 - Peintinger, M. A1 - Bergamini, A. A1 - Schmid, B. A1 - Joshi, Jasmin Radha T1 - Profiteers of environmental change in the Swiss Alps increase of thermophilous and generalist plants in wetland ecosystems within the last 10 years JF - Alpine botany N2 - It has been predicted that Europe will experience a rise in temperature of 2.2-5.3 A degrees C within this century. This increase in temperature may lead to vegetation change along altitudinal gradients. To test whether vegetation composition has already changed in the recent decade due to current warming (and other concomitant environmental changes), we recorded plant species composition in 1995 and 2005/2006 in Swiss pre-alpine fen meadows (800-1,400 m a.s.l.). Despite no obvious changes in the management of these fens, overall, plant species richness (cumulative number of plant species at five plots per site) significantly increased over this period. This was mainly due to an increase in the number of thermophilous, rich-soil-indicator and shade-indicator species, which corresponded to increased community productivity and shading within the vegetation layer. In contrast, fen specialists significantly declined in species numbers. The strongest species shifts occurred at the lowest sites, which overall had a higher colonization rate by new species than did sites at higher altitudes. Vegetation change along the altitudinal gradient was also affected by different types of land management: early-flowering species and species with low habitat specificity had high colonization rates in grazed fens, especially at low altitudes. KW - Altitudinal gradient KW - Fen meadows KW - Global change KW - Multi-factorial environmental change KW - Land management KW - Vegetation change KW - Land use Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00035-012-0102-3 SN - 1664-2201 VL - 122 IS - 1 SP - 45 EP - 56 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Davos, C. H. A1 - Doherty, P. A1 - Voller, Heinz A1 - Salzwedel, Annett A1 - Saure, D. A1 - Metzendorf, M. I. A1 - Jensen, K. A1 - Schmid, J. P. A1 - Rauch, B. T1 - The prognostic effect of cardiac rehabilitation in the era of acute revascularization and statin therapy: the cardiac rehabilitation outcome study (CROS) T2 - European heart journal Y1 - 2016 SN - 0195-668X SN - 1522-9645 VL - 37 SP - 645 EP - 645 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -