TY - JOUR A1 - Seroussi, Helene A1 - Nowicki, Sophie A1 - Payne, Antony J. A1 - Goelzer, Heiko A1 - Lipscomb, William H. A1 - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako A1 - Agosta, Cecile A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Asay-Davis, Xylar A1 - Barthel, Alice A1 - Calov, Reinhard A1 - Cullather, Richard A1 - Dumas, Christophe A1 - Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. A1 - Gladstone, Rupert A1 - Golledge, Nicholas R. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan M. A1 - Greve, Ralf A1 - Hattermann, Tore A1 - Hoffman, Matthew J. A1 - Humbert, Angelika A1 - Huybrechts, Philippe A1 - Jourdain, Nicolas C. A1 - Kleiner, Thomas A1 - Larour, Eric A1 - Leguy, Gunter R. A1 - Lowry, Daniel P. A1 - Little, Chistopher M. A1 - Morlighem, Mathieu A1 - Pattyn, Frank A1 - Pelle, Tyler A1 - Price, Stephen F. A1 - Quiquet, Aurelien A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne A1 - Shepherd, Andrew A1 - Simon, Erika A1 - Smith, Robin S. A1 - Straneo, Fiammetta A1 - Sun, Sainan A1 - Trusel, Luke D. A1 - Van Breedam, Jonas A1 - van de Wal, Roderik S. W. A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Zhao, Chen A1 - Zhang, Tong A1 - Zwinger, Thomas T1 - ISMIP6 Antarctica BT - a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 14 IS - 9 SP - 3033 EP - 3070 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Waldrip, S. H. A1 - Niven, R. K. A1 - Abel, Markus A1 - Schlegel, M. T1 - Maximum Entropy Analysis of Hydraulic Pipe Flow Networks JF - Journal of hydraulic engineering KW - Maximum entropy method KW - Water distribution systems KW - Hydraulic networks KW - Pipe networks KW - Hydraulic models KW - Non-linear analysis KW - Probability Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001126 SN - 0733-9429 SN - 1943-7900 VL - 142 SP - 332 EP - 347 PB - American Society of Civil Engineers CY - Reston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Waldrip, S. H. A1 - Niven, Robert K. A1 - Abel, Markus A1 - Schlegel, M. T1 - Reduced-Parameter Method for Maximum Entropy Analysis of Hydraulic Pipe Flow Networks JF - Journal of hydraulic engineering N2 - A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method is developed to predict flow rates or pressure gradients in hydraulic pipe networks without sufficient information to give a closed-form (deterministic) solution. This methodology substantially extends existing deterministic flow network analysis methods. It builds on the MaxEnt framework previously developed by the authors. This study uses a continuous relative entropy defined on a reduced parameter set, here based on the external flow rates. This formulation ensures consistency between different representations of the same network. The relative entropy is maximized subject to observable constraints on the mean values of a subset of flow rates or potential differences, the frictional properties of each pipe, and physical constraints arising from Kirchhoff’s first and second laws. The new method is demonstrated by application to a simple one-loop network and a 1,123-node, 1,140-pipe water distribution network in the suburb of Torrens, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. KW - Maximum entropy method KW - Water distribution systems KW - Hydraulic networks KW - Pipe networks KW - Hydraulic models KW - Nonlinear analysis KW - Probability Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001379 SN - 0733-9429 SN - 1943-7900 VL - 144 IS - 2 PB - American Society of Civil Engineers CY - Reston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Seroussi, Helene A1 - Nowicki, Sophie A1 - Simon, Erika A1 - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Brondex, Julien A1 - Cornford, Stephen A1 - Dumas, Christophe A1 - Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien A1 - Goelzer, Heiko A1 - Golledge, Nicholas R. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan M. A1 - Greve, Ralf A1 - Hoffman, Matthew J. A1 - Humbert, Angelika A1 - Huybrechts, Philippe A1 - Kleiner, Thomas A1 - Larourl, Eric A1 - Leguy, Gunter A1 - Lipscomb, William H. A1 - Lowry, Daniel A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Morlighem, Mathieu A1 - Pattyn, Frank A1 - Payne, Anthony J. A1 - Pollard, David A1 - Price, Stephen F. A1 - Quiquet, Aurelien A1 - Reerink, Thomas J. A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Rodehacke, Christian B. A1 - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne A1 - Shepherd, Andrew A1 - Sun, Sainan A1 - Sutter, Johannes A1 - Van Breedam, Jonas A1 - van de Wal, Roderik S. W. A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Zhang, Tong T1 - initMIP-Antarctica BT - an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 13 IS - 5 SP - 1441 EP - 1471 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmidt, Sabrina A1 - Saxenhofer, Moritz A1 - Drewes, Stephan A1 - Schlegel, Mathias A1 - Wanka, Konrad M. A1 - Frank, Raphael A1 - Klimpel, Sven A1 - von Blanckenhagen, Felix A1 - Maaz, Denny A1 - Herden, Christiane A1 - Freise, Jona A1 - Wolf, Ronny A1 - Stubbe, Michael A1 - Borkenhagen, Peter A1 - Ansorge, Hermann A1 - Eccard, Jana A1 - Lang, Johannes A1 - Jourdain, Elsa A1 - Jacob, Jens A1 - Marianneau, Philippe A1 - Heckel, Gerald A1 - Ulrich, Rainer Günter T1 - High genetic structuring of Tula hantavirus JF - Archives of virology N2 - Tula virus (TULV) is a vole-associated hantavirus with low or no pathogenicity to humans. In the present study, 686 common voles (Microtus arvalis), 249 field voles (Microtus agrestis) and 30 water voles (Arvicola spec.) were collected at 79 sites in Germany, Luxembourg and France and screened by RT-PCR and TULV-IgG ELISA. TULV-specific RNA and/or antibodies were detected at 43 of the sites, demonstrating a geographically widespread distribution of the virus in the studied area. The TULV prevalence in common voles (16.7 %) was higher than that in field voles (9.2 %) and water voles (10.0 %). Time series data at ten trapping sites showed evidence of a lasting presence of TULV RNA within common vole populations for up to 34 months, although usually at low prevalence. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated a strong genetic structuring of TULV sequences according to geography and independent of the rodent species, confirming the common vole as the preferential host, with spillover infections to co-occurring field and water voles. TULV phylogenetic clades showed a general association with evolutionary lineages in the common vole as assessed by mitochondrial DNA sequences on a large geographical scale, but with local-scale discrepancies in the contact areas. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00705-016-2762-6 SN - 0304-8608 SN - 1432-8798 VL - 161 SP - 1135 EP - 1149 PB - Springer CY - Wien ER -