TY - JOUR A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Seroussi, Helene A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5% to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 14 IS - 9 SP - 3097 EP - 3110 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zeitz, Maria A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 14 IS - 10 SP - 3537 EP - 3550 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) BT - Part 1: boundary conditions and climatic forcing JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Simulations of the glacial-interglacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide insights into dynamic threshold behavior and estimates of the ice sheet's contributions to global sea-level changes for the past, present and future. However, boundary conditions are weakly constrained, in particular at the interface of the ice sheet and the bedrock. Also climatic forcing covering the last glacial cycles is uncertain, as it is based on sparse proxy data.
We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the dynamic effects of different choices of input data, e.g., for modern basal heat flux or reconstructions of past changes of sea level and surface temperature. As computational resources are limited, glacial-cycle simulations are performed using a comparably coarse model grid of 16 km and various parameterizations, e.g., for basal sliding, iceberg calving, or for past variations in precipitation and ocean temperatures. In this study we evaluate the model's transient sensitivity to corresponding parameter choices and to different boundary conditions over the last two glacial cycles and provide estimates of involved uncertainties. We also discuss isolated and combined effects of climate and sea-level forcing. Hence, this study serves as a "cookbook" for the growing community of PISM users and paleo-ice sheet modelers in general.
For each of the different model uncertainties with regard to climatic forcing, ice and Earth dynamics, and basal processes, we select one representative model parameter that captures relevant uncertainties and motivates corresponding parameter ranges that bound the observed ice volume at present. The four selected parameters are systematically varied in a parameter ensemble analysis, which is described in a companion paper. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 599 EP - 632 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Hilmar A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica JF - Nature climate change N2 - Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica’s coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1,2,3. Their thinning4,5,6,7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this ‘tele-buttressing’ enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10,11,12, stressing Antarctica’s vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 8 IS - 1 SP - 53 EP - 57 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rockström, Johan A1 - Kotzé, Louis A1 - Milutinović, Svetlana A1 - Biermann, Frank A1 - Brovkin, Victor A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Ebbesson, Jonas A1 - French, Duncan A1 - Gupta, Joyeeta A1 - Kim, Rakhyun A1 - Lenton, Timothy A1 - Lenzi, Dominic A1 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa A1 - Neumann, Barbara A1 - Schuppert, Fabian A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Bosselmann, Klaus A1 - Folke, Carl A1 - Lucht, Wolfgang A1 - Schlosberg, David A1 - Richardson, Katherine A1 - Steffen, Will T1 - The planetary commons BT - a new paradigm for safeguarding earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America N2 - The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no- analogue tra­jectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons frame­work by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice. KW - anthropocene KW - earth system governance KW - global commons KW - international law KW - planetary boundaries Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301531121 SN - 1091-6490 SN - 1877-2014 VL - 121 IS - 5 PB - National Academy of Sciences CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreuzer, Moritz A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Huiskamp, Willem Nicholas A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Feulner, Georg A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOMS (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain JF - Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high-resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short timescales of decades to a few centuries. We present a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model) via the ice shelf cavity model PICO (Pots-dam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel). As ice shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5 but are parameterized with the PICO box model, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean components to be run at resolutions of 16 km and 3 degrees respectively. This approach makes the coupled configuration a useful tool for the analysis of interactions between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean over time spans of the order of centuries to millennia. In this study, we describe the technical implementation of this coupling framework: sub-shelf melting in the ice sheet component is calculated by PICO from modelled ocean temperatures and salinities at the depth of the continental shelf, and, vice versa, the resulting mass and energy fluxes from melting at the ice-ocean interface are transferred to the ocean component. Mass and energy fluxes are shown to be conserved to machine precision across the considered component domains. The implementation is computationally efficient as it introduces only minimal overhead. Furthermore, the coupled model is evaluated in a 4000 year simulation under constant present-day climate forcing and is found to be stable with respect to the ocean and ice sheet spin-up states. The framework deals with heterogeneous spatial grid geometries, varying grid resolutions, and timescales between the ice and ocean component in a generic way; thus, it can be adopted to a wide range of model set-ups. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021 SN - 1991-959X SN - 1991-9603 VL - 14 IS - 6 SP - 3697 EP - 3714 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zeitz, Maria A1 - Haacker, Jan M. A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model. Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 degrees C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free within several millennia, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses are mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting an incomplete recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming - from incomplete recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse. In the incomplete recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50 000 years, and the ice volume stabilizes at 61 %-93 % of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt-elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods between 74 000 and over 300 000 years and oscillation amplitudes between 15 %-70 % of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on timescales on the order of 100 000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into of the feedback loops governing the "deep future" and, thus, long-term resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 13 IS - 3 SP - 1077 EP - 1096 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) BT - part 2: parameter ensemble analysis JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016). This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 633 EP - 656 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Garbe, Julius A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5 SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 585 IS - 7826 SP - 538 EP - 544 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schlemm, Tanja A1 - Feldmann, Johannes A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Stabilizing effect of melange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Owing to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyse the possible consequences using the parallel ice sheet model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice melange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding-line retreat and triggers marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyse marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constrained parameter that determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound of the calving rate, which is given by the ice melange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Because the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-melange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 16 IS - 5 SP - 1979 EP - 1996 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -