TY  - JOUR
A1  - Yalew, S. G.
A1  - Pilz, Tobias
A1  - Schweitzer, C.
A1  - Liersch, Stefan
A1  - van der Kwast, J.
A1  - van Griensven, A.
A1  - Mul, Marloes L.
A1  - Dickens, Chris
A1  - van der Zaag, Pieter
T1  - Coupling land-use change and hydrologic models for quantification of catchment ecosystem services
JF  - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news
N2  - Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly.
KW  - Model coupling
KW  - Ecosystem services
KW  - Integrated modelling
KW  - Land and water
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.029
SN  - 1364-8152
SN  - 1873-6726
VL  - 109
SP  - 315
EP  - 328
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Espe, Katharina M.
A1  - Raila, Jens
A1  - Henze, Andrea
A1  - Blouin, Katja
A1  - Schneider, Andreas
A1  - Schmiedeke, Daniel
A1  - Krane, Vera
A1  - Pilz, Stefan
A1  - Schweigert, Florian J.
A1  - Hocher, Berthold
A1  - Wanner, Christoph
A1  - Drechsler, Christiane
T1  - Low plasma alpha-tocopherol concentrations and adverse clinical outcomes in diabetic hemodialysis patients
JF  - Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology
N2  - Background and objectives Trials with the antioxidant vitamin E have failed to show benefit in the general population. Considering the different causes of death in ESRD, this study investigated the association between plasma concentrations of alpha-tocopherol and specific clinical outcomes in diabetic hemodialysis patients.
 Design, settings, participants, & measurements In 1046 diabetic hemodialysis patients (participants of the German Diabetes and Dialysis Study), alpha-tocopherol was measured in plasma by reversed-phase HPLC. By Cox regression analyses, hazard ratios were determined for prespecified end points according to baseline plasma alpha-tocopherol levels: sudden death (n=134), myocardial infarction (n=172), stroke (n=89), combined cardiovascular events (n=398), fatal infection (n=107), and all-cause mortality (n=508).
 Results Patients had a mean age of 66 8 years, and mean plasma alpha-tocopherol level was 22.8+/-9.6 mu mol/L. Levels of alpha-tocopherol were highly correlated to triglycerides (r=0.63, P<0.001). Patients in the lowest alpha-tocopherol quartile had (in unadjusted analyses) a 79% higher risk of stroke and a 31% higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with patients in the highest quartile. The associations were attenuated after adjustment for confounders (hazard ratio(stroke)=1.56, 95% confidence interval=0.75-3.25; hazard ratio(mortality)=1.22, 95% confidence interval=0.89-1.69, respectively). There was no association between alpha-tocopherol and myocardial infarction, sudden death, or infectious death.
 Conclusions Plasma alpha-tocopherol concentrations were not independently associated with cardiovascular outcomes, infectious deaths, or all-cause mortality in diabetic hemodialysis patients. The lack of association can partly be explained by a confounding influence of malnutrition, which should be considered in the planning of trials to reduce cardiovascular risk in dialysis patients.
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.2215/CJN.04880511
SN  - 1555-9041
VL  - 8
IS  - 3
SP  - 452
EP  - 458
PB  - American Society of Nephrology
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Drechsler, Christiane
A1  - Pilz, Stefan
A1  - Obermayer-Pietsch, Barbara
A1  - Verduijn, Marion
A1  - Tomaschitz, Andreas
A1  - Krane, Vera
A1  - Espe, Katharina
A1  - Dekker, Friedo
A1  - Brandenburg, Vincent
A1  - Maerz, Winfried
A1  - Ritz, Eberhard
A1  - Wanner, Christoph
T1  - Vitamin D deficiency is associated with sudden cardiac death, combined cardiovascular events, and mortality in haemodialysis patients
N2  - Dialysis patients experience an excess mortality, predominantly of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Accumulating evidence suggests a role of vitamin D for myocardial and overall health. This study investigated the impact of vitamin D status on cardiovascular outcomes and fatal infections in haemodialysis patients. 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was measured in 1108 diabetic haemodialysis patients who participated in the German Diabetes and Dialysis Study and were followed up for a median of 4 years. By Cox regression analyses, we determined hazard ratios (HR) for pre-specified, adjudicated endpoints according to baseline 25(OH)D levels: SCD (n = 146), myocardial infarction (MI, n = 174), stroke (n = 89), cardiovascular events (CVE, n = 414), death due to heart failure (n = 37), fatal infection (n = 111), and all- cause mortality (n = 545). Patients had a mean age of 66 +/- 8 years (54% male) and median 25(OH)D of 39 nmol/L (interquartile range: 28-55). Patients with severe vitamin D deficiency [25(OH)D of < 25 nmol/L] had a 3-fold higher risk of SCD compared with those with sufficient 25(OH)D levels > 75 nmol/L [HR: 2.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39- 6.40]. Furthermore, CVE and all-cause mortality were strongly increased (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.18-2.69, and HR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.22-2.47, respectively), all persisting in multivariate models. There were borderline non-significant associations with stroke and fatal infection while MI and deaths due to heart failure were not meaningfully affected. Severe vitamin D deficiency was strongly associated with SCD, CVE, and mortality, and there were borderline associations with stroke and fatal infection. Whether vitamin D supplementation decreases adverse outcomes requires further evaluation.
Y1  - 2010
UR  - http://eurheartj.oxfordjournals.org/
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehq246
SN  - 0195-668X
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Reinhardt, Julia
A1  - Liersch, Stefan
A1  - Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi
A1  - Diallo, Mori
A1  - Dickens, Chris
A1  - Fournet, Samuel
A1  - Hattermann, Fred
A1  - Kabaseke, Clovis
A1  - Muhumuza, Moses
A1  - Mul, Marloes L.
A1  - Pilz, Tobias
A1  - Otto, Ilona M.
A1  - Walz, Ariane
T1  - Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management
BT  - evidence from four case studies in Africa
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 930 
KW  - Africa
KW  - global and regional change
KW  - integrated assessments
KW  - participatory research
KW  - sustainability science
Y1  - 2020
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445784
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 930
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reinhardt, Julia
A1  - Liersch, Stefan
A1  - Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi
A1  - Diallo, Mori
A1  - Dickens, Chris
A1  - Fournet, Samuel
A1  - Hattermann, Fred
A1  - Kabaseke, Clovis
A1  - Muhumuza, Moses
A1  - Mul, Marloes L.
A1  - Pilz, Tobias
A1  - Otto, Ilona M.
A1  - Walz, Ariane
T1  - Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management
BT  - evidence from four case studies in Africa
JF  - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
N2  - Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
KW  - Africa
KW  - global and regional change
KW  - integrated assessments
KW  - participatory research
KW  - sustainability science
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09728-230105
SN  - 1708-3087
VL  - 23
IS  - 1
PB  - Resilience Alliance
CY  - Wolfville
ER  -