TY  - JOUR
A1  - Warszawski, Lila
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Lenton, Timothy M.
A1  - Gaffney, Owen
A1  - Jacob, Daniela
A1  - Klingenfeld, Daniel
A1  - Koide, Ryu
A1  - Costa, María Máñez
A1  - Messner, Dirk
A1  - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
A1  - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
A1  - Schlosser, Peter
A1  - Takeuchi, Kazuhiko
A1  - van der Leeuw, Sander
A1  - Whiteman, Gail
A1  - Rockström, Johan
T1  - All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C
BT  - a scenario appraisal
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
KW  - climate change
KW  - emissions scenarios
KW  - 1.5 ◦C
KW  - negative emissions
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec
SN  - 1748-9326
N1  - Corrigendum: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbf6a
VL  - 16
IS  - 6
PB  - IOP Publishing
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rockström, Johan
A1  - Kotzé, Louis
A1  - Milutinović, Svetlana
A1  - Biermann, Frank
A1  - Brovkin, Victor
A1  - Donges, Jonathan
A1  - Ebbesson, Jonas
A1  - French, Duncan
A1  - Gupta, Joyeeta
A1  - Kim, Rakhyun
A1  - Lenton, Timothy
A1  - Lenzi, Dominic
A1  - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
A1  - Neumann, Barbara
A1  - Schuppert, Fabian
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Bosselmann, Klaus
A1  - Folke, Carl
A1  - Lucht, Wolfgang
A1  - Schlosberg, David
A1  - Richardson, Katherine
A1  - Steffen, Will
T1  - The planetary commons
BT  - a new paradigm for safeguarding earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no- analogue tra­jectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems  on  Earth  upon  which  the  world  collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions  of  the  Earth  system  irrespective  of  national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons frame­work by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive  stewardship  obligations  through  Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.
KW  - anthropocene
KW  - earth system governance
KW  - global commons
KW  - international law
KW  - planetary boundaries
Y1  - 2024
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301531121
SN  - 1091-6490
SN  - 1877-2014
VL  - 121
IS  - 5
PB  - National Academy of Sciences
CY  - Washington, DC
ER  -