TY - JOUR A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Schultes, Anselm A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Bauer, Nico T1 - Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling JF - Environmental & resource economics : the official journal of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists N2 - Despite increasing empirical evidence of strong links between climate and economic growth, there is no established model to describe the dynamics of how different types of climate shocks affect growth patterns. Here we present the first comprehensive, comparative analysis of the long-term dynamics of one-time, temporary climate shocks on production factors, and factor productivity, respectively, in a Ramsey-type growth model. Damages acting directly on production factors allow us to study dynamic effects on factor allocation, savings and economic growth. We find that the persistence of impacts on economic activity is smallest for climate shocks directly impacting output, and successively increases for direct damages on capital, loss of labor and productivity shocks, related to different responses in savings rates and factor-specific growth. Recurring shocks lead to large welfare effects and long-term growth effects, directly linked to the persistence of individual shocks. Endogenous savings and shock anticipation both have adaptive effects but do not eliminate differences between impact channels or significantly lower the dissipation time. Accounting for endogenous growth mechanisms increases the effects. We also find strong effects on income shares, important for distributional implications. This work fosters conceptual understanding of impact dynamics in growth models, opening options for links to empirics. KW - Climate change KW - Damages KW - Economic growth KW - Impact channels KW - Production factors KW - Persistence Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-00306-7 SN - 0924-6460 SN - 1573-1502 VL - 73 IS - 4 SP - 1357 EP - 1385 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Weindl, Isabelle A1 - Rauner, Sebastian A1 - Dirnaichner, Alois A1 - Ruhe, Constantin A1 - Hofmann, Matthias A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Leininger, Julia A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Pehl, Michaja A1 - Wingens, Christopher A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Beier, Felicitas A1 - Dietrich, Jan Philipp A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - von Jeetze, Patrick A1 - Klein, David A1 - Koch, Johannes A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Popp, Alexander T1 - A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda JF - Nature climate change N2 - Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate-change policy KW - socioeconomic scenarios KW - sustainability Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 8 SP - 656 EP - 664 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Popp, Alexander T1 - Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty JF - Nature Communications N2 - Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (-6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries. Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 12 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER -