TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Measuring migration 2.0 BT - a review of digital data sources JF - Comparative migration studies : CMS N2 - The interest in human migration is at its all-time high, yet data to measure migration is notoriously limited. “Big data” or “digital trace data” have emerged as new sources of migration measurement complementing ‘traditional’ census, administrative and survey data. This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of eight novel, digital data sources along five domains: reliability, validity, scope, access and ethics. The review highlights the opportunities for migration scholars but also stresses the ethical and empirical challenges. This review intends to be of service to researchers and policy analysts alike and help them navigate this new and increasingly complex field. KW - Migration KW - Big data KW - Digital trace KW - Measurement KW - Survey KW - Review Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-021-00273-x SN - 2214-594X VL - 9 IS - 1 PB - Springer CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper A1 - Haarmann, Esther A1 - Savaskan, Nicolai T1 - Experimental evidence on improving COVID-19 vaccine outreach among migrant communities on social media JF - Scientific reports N2 - Studies from several countries suggest that COVID-19 vaccination rates are lower among migrants compared to the general population. Urgent calls have been made to improve vaccine outreach to migrants, however, there is limited evidence on effective approaches, especially using social media. We assessed a targeted, low-cost, Facebook campaign disseminating COVID-19 vaccine information among Arabic, Turkish and Russian speakers in Germany (N = 888,994). As part of the campaign, we conducted two randomized, online experiments to assess the impact of the advertisement (1) language and (2) depicted messenger (government authority, religious leader, doctor or family). Key outcomes included reach, click-through rates, conversion rates and cost-effectiveness. Within 29 days, the campaign reached 890 thousand Facebook users. On average, 2.3 individuals accessed the advertised COVID-19 vaccination appointment tool for every euro spent on the campaign. Migrants were 2.4 (Arabic), 1.8 (Russian) and 1.2 (Turkish) times more likely to click on advertisements translated to their native language compared to German-language advertisements. Furthermore, findings showed that government representatives can be more successful in engaging migrants online compared to other messengers, despite common claims of lower trust in government institutions among migrants. This study highlights the potential of tailored, and translated, vaccination campaigns on social media for reaching migrants who may be left out by traditional media campaigns. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-20340-2 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 12 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tjaden, Jasper A1 - Haarmann, Esther A1 - Savaskan, Nicolai T1 - Experimental evidence on improving COVID-19 vaccine outreach among migrant communities on social media T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Studies from several countries suggest that COVID-19 vaccination rates are lower among migrants compared to the general population. Urgent calls have been made to improve vaccine outreach to migrants, however, there is limited evidence on effective approaches, especially using social media. We assessed a targeted, low-cost, Facebook campaign disseminating COVID-19 vaccine information among Arabic, Turkish and Russian speakers in Germany (N = 888,994). As part of the campaign, we conducted two randomized, online experiments to assess the impact of the advertisement (1) language and (2) depicted messenger (government authority, religious leader, doctor or family). Key outcomes included reach, click-through rates, conversion rates and cost-effectiveness. Within 29 days, the campaign reached 890 thousand Facebook users. On average, 2.3 individuals accessed the advertised COVID-19 vaccination appointment tool for every euro spent on the campaign. Migrants were 2.4 (Arabic), 1.8 (Russian) and 1.2 (Turkish) times more likely to click on advertisements translated to their native language compared to German-language advertisements. Furthermore, findings showed that government representatives can be more successful in engaging migrants online compared to other messengers, despite common claims of lower trust in government institutions among migrants. This study highlights the potential of tailored, and translated, vaccination campaigns on social media for reaching migrants who may be left out by traditional media campaigns. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 156 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-587409 SN - 1867-5808 N1 - Author correction unter https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-26500-8 IS - 156 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Measuring migration 2.0 BT - a review of digital data sources T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The interest in human migration is at its all-time high, yet data to measure migration is notoriously limited. “Big data” or “digital trace data” have emerged as new sources of migration measurement complementing ‘traditional’ census, administrative and survey data. This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of eight novel, digital data sources along five domains: reliability, validity, scope, access and ethics. The review highlights the opportunities for migration scholars but also stresses the ethical and empirical challenges. This review intends to be of service to researchers and policy analysts alike and help them navigate this new and increasingly complex field. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 149 KW - Migration KW - Big data KW - Digital trace KW - Measurement KW - Survey KW - Review Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-553873 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 149 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper Dag A1 - Dunsch, Felipe Alexander T1 - The effect of peer-to-peer risk information on potential migrants BT - evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Senegal JF - World development : the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development N2 - In response to mounting evidence on the dangers of irregular migration from Africa to Europe, the number of information campaigns which aim to raise awareness about the potential risks has rapidly increased. Governments, international organizations and civil society organizations implement a variety of campaigns to counter the spread of misinformation accelerated by smuggling and trafficking networks. The evidence on the effects of such information interventions on potential migrants remains limited and largely anecdotal. More generally, the role of risk perceptions in the decision-making process of potential irregular migrants is rarely explicitly tested, despite the fact that the concept of risk pervades conventional migration models, particularly in the field of economics. We address this gap by assessing the effects of a peer-to-peer information intervention on the perceptions, knowledge and intentions of potential migrants in Dakar, Senegal, using a randomized controlled trial design. The results show that - three months after the intervention - peer-to-peer information events increase potential migrants' subjective information levels, raise risk awareness, and reduce intentions to migrate irregularly. We find no substantial effects on factual migration knowledge. We discuss how the effects may be driven by the trust and identification-enhancing nature of peer-to-peer communication.
(c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Randomized controlled trial KW - Migration KW - Information KW - Decision-making KW - Communication for development KW - Peer-to-peer Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105488 SN - 0305-750X VL - 145 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Web scraping for migration, mobility, and migrant integration studies BT - introduction, application, and potential use cases JF - International migration review N2 - Web scraping, a technique for extracting data from web pages, has been in use for decades, yet its utilization in the field of migration, mobility, and migrant integration studies has been limited. The field faces notorious limitations regarding data access and availability, particularly in low-income settings. Web scraping has the potential to provide new datasets for further qualitative and quantitative analysis. Web scraping requires no financial resources, is agnostic to epistemic divides in the field, reduces researcher bias, and increases transparency and replicability of data collection. As large providers of digital data such as Facebook or Twitter increasingly restrict access to their data for researchers, web scraping will become more important in the future and deserves its place in the toolbox of migration and mobility scholars. This short and nontechnical methods note introduces the fundamental concepts of web scraping, provides guidance on how to learn the technique, showcases practical applications of web scraping in the study of migrant populations, and discusses potential future use cases. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183231208428 SN - 0197-9183 SN - 1747-7379 PB - Sage Publications CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper A1 - Gninafon, Horace T1 - Raising awareness about the risk of irregular migration BT - quasi‐experimental evidence from Guinea JF - Population and development review N2 - In response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference-in-difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decision-making process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12468 SN - 0098-7921 SN - 1728-4457 VL - 48 IS - 3 SP - 745 EP - 766 PB - Population Council CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Risky journeys BT - risk and decision‐making among potential irregular migrants in Senegal and Guinea JF - International migration N2 - In response to well-documented harms inflicted on irregular migrants attempting to travel from West Africa to Europe, various actors have scaled up information interventions to counter misinformation by smuggling networks and facilitate safe migration decisions. Many interventions include information on the potential dangers involved in migration. However, there is a striking lack of empirical evidence assessing a key assumption of campaign effectiveness, that is the relationship between risk perceptions and the decision to migrate irregularly. This study contributes an empirical account based on two independently collected surveys in Senegal and Guinea. Consistent with rational choice theories on migration decisions under uncertainty, the results suggest that higher risk perceptions are consistently and strongly associated with reduced intentions to migrate irregularly. Yet, the explanatory power of risk perceptions depends on context and is generally less important than structural and socio-economic factors. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13003 SN - 0020-7985 SN - 1468-2435 VL - 61 IS - 2 SP - 212 EP - 225 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper A1 - Spörlein, Christoph T1 - How much do “local policies” matter for refugee integration? BT - an analytical model and evidence from a highly decentralized country JF - International migration review N2 - A growing number of studies have recently postulated a so-called local turn in the study of immigrant and refugee integration policy. A fundamental, yet untested, assumption of this body of research is that local (sub-national) policies and administrations shape how migrants and refugees integrate into society. We develop and apply an analytical model using multilevel modeling techniques based on large-N, longitudinal survey data (N > 9000) with refugees (2012–2018) in a highly decentralized country (Germany) to estimate the scope for local policy effects net of individual-level and state- and district-level characteristics. We show that region and district-level variation in integration outcomes across multiple dimensions (employment, education, language, housing, social) is limited (∼5%) within 4–8 years after immigration. We find modest variation in policy indicators (∼10%), which do not appear to directly translate into outcomes. We discuss implications for the study of local policies and the potential for greater convergence between administrative and political science, interested in governance structures and policy variation, and sociology and economics, interested primarily in integration outcomes. KW - refugee KW - policy KW - integration Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183231205561 SN - 0197-9183 SN - 1747-7379 PB - Sage Publications CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ndashimye, Felix A1 - Hebie, Oumarou A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Effectiveness of WhatsApp for measuring migration in follow-up phone surveys BT - lessons from a mode experiment in two low-income countries during COVID contact restrictions JF - Social science computer review N2 - Phone surveys have increasingly become important data collection tools in developing countries, particularly in the context of sudden contact restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. So far, there is limited evidence regarding the potential of the messenger service WhatsApp for remote data collection despite its large global coverage and expanding membership. WhatsApp may offer advantages in terms of reducing panel attrition and cutting survey costs. WhatsApp may offer additional benefits to migration scholars interested in cross-border migration behavior which is notoriously difficult to measure using conventional face-to-face surveys. In this field experiment, we compared the response rates between WhatsApp and interactive voice response (IVR) modes using a sample of 8446 contacts in Senegal and Guinea. At 12%, WhatsApp survey response rates were nearly eight percentage points lower than IVR survey response rates. However, WhatsApp offers higher survey completion rates, substantially lower costs and does not introduce more sample selection bias compared to IVR. We discuss the potential of WhatsApp surveys in low-income contexts and provide practical recommendations for field implementation. KW - WhatsApp KW - survey mode KW - migration KW - Covid KW - phone Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/08944393221111340 SN - 0894-4393 SN - 1552-8286 PB - Sage CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sohst, Rhea Ravenna A1 - Acostamadiedo, Eduardo A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys BT - a case study on immigration to the EU JF - Demographic research N2 - Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030. Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates. Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration. Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers. Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored. KW - European Union KW - immigration KW - international migration KW - migration flows Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2023.49.36 SN - 2363-7064 SN - 1435-9871 VL - 49 SP - 983 EP - 1020 PB - Max Planck Inst. for Demographic Research CY - Rostock ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Khalil, Samir A1 - Kohler, Ulrich A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Is there a rural penalty in language acquisition? BT - evidence from Germany's refugee allocation policy JF - Frontiers in sociology N2 - Emerging evidence has highlighted the important role of local contexts for integration trajectories of asylum seekers and refugees. Germany's policy of randomly allocating asylum seekers across Germany may advantage some and disadvantage others in terms of opportunities for equal participation in society. This study explores the question whether asylum seekers that have been allocated to rural areas experience disadvantages in terms of language acquisition compared to those allocated to urban areas. We derive testable assumptions using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) which are then tested using large-N survey data (IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee survey). We find that living in a rural area has no negative total effect on language skills. Further the findings suggest that the "null effect" is the result of two processes which offset each other: while asylum seekers in rural areas have slightly lower access for formal, federally organized language courses, they have more regular exposure to German speakers. KW - refugees KW - allocation policies KW - rural KW - language acquisition KW - intergroup KW - contacts KW - language courses KW - integration Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2022.841775 SN - 2297-7775 VL - 7 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Khalil, Samir A1 - Kohler, Ulrich A1 - Tjaden, Jasper Dag T1 - Is There a Rural Penalty in Language Acquisition? Evidence From Germany's Refugee Allocation Policy JF - Frontiers in Sociology N2 - Emerging evidence has highlighted the important role of local contexts for integration trajectories of asylum seekers and refugees. Germany's policy of randomly allocating asylum seekers across Germany may advantage some and disadvantage others in terms of opportunities for equal participation in society. This study explores the question whether asylum seekers that have been allocated to rural areas experience disadvantages in terms of language acquisition compared to those allocated to urban areas. We derive testable assumptions using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) which are then tested using large-N survey data (IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee survey). We find that living in a rural area has no negative total effect on language skills. Further the findings suggest that the “null effect” is the result of two processes which offset each other: while asylum seekers in rural areas have slightly lower access for formal, federally organized language courses, they have more regular exposure to German speakers. KW - refugees KW - allocation policies KW - rural KW - language acquisition KW - intergroup contacts KW - language courses KW - integration Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2022.841775 SN - 2297-7775 VL - 7 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Frontiers CY - Lausanne, Schweiz ER - TY - GEN A1 - Khalil, Samir A1 - Kohler, Ulrich A1 - Tjaden, Jasper Dag T1 - Is There a Rural Penalty in Language Acquisition? Evidence From Germany's Refugee Allocation Policy T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Emerging evidence has highlighted the important role of local contexts for integration trajectories of asylum seekers and refugees. Germany's policy of randomly allocating asylum seekers across Germany may advantage some and disadvantage others in terms of opportunities for equal participation in society. This study explores the question whether asylum seekers that have been allocated to rural areas experience disadvantages in terms of language acquisition compared to those allocated to urban areas. We derive testable assumptions using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) which are then tested using large-N survey data (IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee survey). We find that living in a rural area has no negative total effect on language skills. Further the findings suggest that the “null effect” is the result of two processes which offset each other: while asylum seekers in rural areas have slightly lower access for formal, federally organized language courses, they have more regular exposure to German speakers. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 151 KW - refugees KW - allocation policies KW - rural KW - language acquisition KW - intergroup contacts KW - language courses KW - integration Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-566264 SN - 1867-5808 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Matthias A1 - Tjaden, Jasper A1 - Kampe, Heike A1 - Scholz, Jana A1 - Aust, Sarah-Madeleine A1 - Himmler, Lena A1 - Agrofylax, Luisa A1 - Mey, Jürgen A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Nikoloski, Zoran A1 - Mikulla, Stefanie A1 - Horn-Conrad, Antje A1 - Evans, Myfanwy T1 - Portal Wissen = Education:Digital T2 - Portal Wissen: The research magazine of the University of Potsdam N2 - Have you already swiped or liked this morning? Have you taken part in a video conference at work, used or programmed a database? Have you paid with your smartphone on the way home, listened to a podcast, or extended the lending of books you borrowed from the library? And in the evening, have you filled out your tax return application on ELSTER.de on your tablet, shopped online, or paid invoices before you were tempted to watch a series on a streaming platform? Our lives are entirely digitalized. These changes make many things faster, easier, and more efficient. But keeping pace with these changes demands a lot from us, and not everyone succeeds. There are people who prefer to go to the bank to make a transfer, leave the programming to the experts, send their tax return by mail, and only use their smartphone to make phone calls. They don’t want to keep pace, or maybe they can’t. They haven’t learned these things. Others, younger people, grow up as “digital natives” surrounded by digital devices, tools, and processes. But does that mean they really know how to use them? Or do they also need digital education? But what does successful digital education actually look like? Does it teach us how to use a tablet, how to google properly, and how to write Excel spreadsheets? Perhaps it’s about more than that. It’s about understanding the comprehensive change that has been taking hold of our world since it was broken down into digital ones and zeros and rebuilt virtually. But how do we learn to live in a world of digitality – with all that it entails, and to our benefit? For the new issue of “Portal Wissen”, we looked around at the university and interviewed researchers about the role that the connection between digitalization and learning plays in the research of various disciplines. We spoke to Katharina Scheiter, Professor of Digital Education, about the future of German schools and had several experts show us examples of how digital tools can improve learning in schools. We also talked to computer science and agricultural researchers about how even experienced farmers can still learn a lot about their land and their work thanks to digital tools. We spoke to educational researchers who are using big data to analyze how boys and girls learn and what the possible causes for differences are. Education and political scientist Nina Kolleck, on the other hand, looks at education against the backdrop of globalization and relies on the analysis of large amounts of social media data. Of course, we don’t lose sight of the diversity of research at the University of Potsdam. We learn, for example, what alternatives to antibiotics could soon be available. This magazine also looks at stress and how it makes us ill as well as the research into sustainable ore extraction. A new feature of our magazine is a whole series of shorter articles that invite you to browse and read: from research news and photographic insights into laboratories to simple explanations of complex phenomena and outlooks into the wider world of research to a small scientific utopia and a personal thanks to research. All this in the name of education, of course. Enjoy your read! T3 - Portal Wissen: The research magazine of the University of Potsdam [Englische Ausgabe] - 1/2024 Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-646977 SN - 2198-9974 IS - 1/2024 ER -