TY  - JOUR
A1  - Pohanková, Eva
A1  - Hlavinka, Petr
A1  - Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
A1  - Rodríguez, Alfredo
A1  - Balek, Jan
A1  - Bednařík, Martin
A1  - Dubrovský, Martin
A1  - Gobin, Anne
A1  - Hoogenboom, Gerrit
A1  - Moriondo, Marco
A1  - Nendel, Claas
A1  - Olesen, Jørgen E. E.
A1  - Rötter, Reimund Paul
A1  - Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita
A1  - Shelia, Vakhtang
A1  - Stella, Tommaso
A1  - Hoffmann, Munir Paul
A1  - Takáč, Jozef
A1  - Eitzinger, Josef
A1  - Dibari, Camilla
A1  - Ferrise, Roberto
A1  - Bláhová, Monika
A1  - Trnka, Miroslav
T1  - Expected effects of climate change on the production and water use of crop rotation management reproduced by crop model ensemble for Czech Republic sites
JF  - European journal of agronomy
N2  - Crop rotation, fertilization and residue management affect the water balance and crop production and can lead to different sensitivities to climate change. To assess the impacts of climate change on crop rotations (CRs), the crop model ensemble (APSIM,AQUACROP, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT, HERMES, MONICA) was used. The yields and water balance of two CRs with the same set of crops (winter wheat, silage maize, spring barley and winter rape) in a continuous transient run from 1961 to 2080 were simulated. CR1 was without cover crops and without manure application. Straw after the harvest was exported from the fields. CR2 included cover crops, manure application and crop residue retention left on field. Simulations were performed using two soil types (Chernozem, Cambisol) within three sites in the Czech Republic, which represent temperature and precipitation gradients for crops in Central Europe. For the description of future climatic conditions, seven climate scenarios were used. Six of them had increasing CO & nbsp;concentrations according RCP 8.5, one had no CO2 increase in the future. The output of an ensemble expected higher productivity by 0.82 t/ha/year and 2.04 t/ha/year for yields and aboveground biomass in the future (2051-2080). However, if the direct effect of a CO2 increase is not considered, the average yields for lowlands will be lower. Compared to CR1, CR2 showed higher average yields of 1.26 t/ha/year for current climatic conditions and 1.41 t/ha/year for future climatic conditions. For the majority of climate change scenarios, the crop model ensemble agrees on the projected yield increase in C3 crops in the future for CR2 but not for CR1. Higher agreement for future yield increases was found for Chernozem, while for Cambisol, lower yields under dry climate scenarios are expected. For silage maize, changes in simulated yields depend on locality. If the same hybrid will be used in the future, then yield reductions should be expected within lower altitudes. The results indicate the potential for higher biomass production from cover crops, but CR2 is associated with almost 120 mm higher evapotranspiration compared to that of CR1 over a 5-year cycle for lowland stations in the future, which in the case of the rainfed agriculture could affect the long-term soil water balance. This could affect groundwater replenishment, especially for locations with fine textured soils, although the findings of this study highlight the potential for the soil water-holding capacity to buffer against the adverse weather conditions.
KW  - Yields
KW  - Evapotranspiration
KW  - Winter wheat
KW  - Silage maize
KW  - Spring barley
KW  - Winter oilseed rape
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2021.126446
SN  - 1161-0301
SN  - 1873-7331
VL  - 134
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  -