TY - JOUR A1 - Karbon, Maria A1 - Balidakis, Kyriakos A1 - Belda, Santiago A1 - Nilsson, Tobias A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan A1 - Schuh, Harald T1 - Long-Term evaluation of ocean tidal variation models of polar motion and UT1 JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth’s rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results. KW - Ocean tidal model KW - VLBI analysis KW - Euler-Liouville Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1866-1 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 175 IS - 5 SP - 1611 EP - 1629 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Palmer, Matthew D. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan A1 - Bagge, Meike A1 - Calvert, Daley A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius A1 - Howard, Tom A1 - Klemann, Volker A1 - Lowe, Jason A. A1 - Roberts, Chris A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A. A1 - Spada, Giorgio T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1353 KW - climate change KW - CMIP5 models KW - RCP scenarios KW - sea-level projections KW - tide gauge observations Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549881 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Palmer, Matthew D. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan A1 - Bagge, Meike A1 - Calvert, Daley A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius A1 - Howard, Tom A1 - Klemann, Volker A1 - Lowe, Jason A. A1 - Roberts, Chris A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A. A1 - Spada, Giorgio T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond JF - Earth's future N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. KW - climate change KW - CMIP5 models KW - RCP scenarios KW - sea-level projections KW - tide gauge observations Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 9 SP - 1 EP - 25 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER -