TY  - JOUR
A1  - Meyer, Nele Kristin
A1  - Schwanghart, Wolfgang
A1  - Korup, Oliver
A1  - Romstad, Bard
A1  - Etzelmuller, Bernd
T1  - Estimating the topographic predictability of debris flows
JF  - Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology
N2  - The Norwegian traffic network is impacted by about 2000 landslides, avalanches, and debris flows each year that incur high economic losses. Despite the urgent need to mitigate future losses, efforts to locate potential debris flow source areas have been rare at the regional scale. We tackle this research gap by exploring a minimal set of possible topographic predictors of debris flow initiation that we input to a Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) model for mapping the regional susceptibility to debris flows in western Norway. We use an inventory of 429 debris flows that were recorded between 1979 and 2008, and use the terrain variables of slope, total curvature, and contributing area (flow accumulation) to compute the posterior probabilities of local debris flow occurrence. The novelty of our approach is that we quantify the uncertainties in the WofE approach arising from different predictor classification schemes and data input, while estimating model accuracy and predictive performance from independent test data. Our results show that a percentile-based classification scheme excels over a manual classification of the predictor variables because differing abundances in manually defined bins reduce the reliability of the conditional independence tests, a key, and often neglected, prerequisite for the WofE method. The conditional dependence between total curvature and flow accumulation precludes their joint use in the model. Slope gradient has the highest true positive rate (88%), although the fraction of area classified as susceptible is very large (37%). The predictive performance, i.e. the reduction of false positives, is improved when combined with either total curvature or flow accumulation. Bootstrapping shows that the combination of slope and flow accumulation provides more reliable predictions than the combination of slope and total curvature, and helps refining the use of slope-area plots for identifying morphometric fingerprints of debris flow source areas, an approach used outside the field of landslide susceptibility assessments.
KW  - Weights-of-Evidence
KW  - Debris flows
KW  - Susceptibility
KW  - Slope-area plot
KW  - Process domains
KW  - Norway
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.030
SN  - 0169-555X
SN  - 1872-695X
VL  - 207
SP  - 114
EP  - 125
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Biskaborn, Boris
A1  - Smith, Sharon L.
A1  - Noetzli, Jeannette
A1  - Matthes, Heidrun
A1  - Vieira, Gonçalo
A1  - Streletskiy, Dmitry A.
A1  - Schoeneich, Philippe
A1  - Romanovsky, Vladimir E.
A1  - Lewkowicz, Antoni G.
A1  - Abramov, Andrey
A1  - Allard, Michel
A1  - Boike, Julia
A1  - Cable, William L.
A1  - Christiansen, Hanne H.
A1  - Delaloye, Reynald
A1  - Diekmann, Bernhard
A1  - Drozdov, Dmitry
A1  - Etzelmüller, Bernd
A1  - Große, Guido
A1  - Guglielmin, Mauro
A1  - Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas
A1  - Isaksen, Ketil
A1  - Ishikawa, Mamoru
A1  - Johansson, Margareta
A1  - Joo, Anseok
A1  - Kaverin, Dmitry
A1  - Kholodov, Alexander
A1  - Konstantinov, Pavel
A1  - Kröger, Tim
A1  - Lambiel, Christophe
A1  - Lanckman, Jean-Pierre
A1  - Luo, Dongliang
A1  - Malkova, Galina
A1  - Meiklejohn, Ian
A1  - Moskalenko, Natalia
A1  - Oliva, Marc
A1  - Phillips, Marcia
A1  - Ramos, Miguel
A1  - Sannel, A. Britta K.
A1  - Sergeev, Dmitrii
A1  - Seybold, Cathy
A1  - Skryabin, Pavel
A1  - Vasiliev, Alexander
A1  - Wu, Qingbai
A1  - Yoshikawa, Kenji
A1  - Zheleznyak, Mikhail
A1  - Lantuit, Hugues
T1  - Permafrost is warming at a global scale
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 669 
KW  - seasonal snow cover
KW  - thermal state
KW  - climate-change
KW  - activ-layer
KW  - Antarctic Peninsula
KW  - stability
Y1  - 2019
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425341
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 669
ER  -