TY - JOUR A1 - Gutt, Julian A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Bracegridle, Thomas J. A1 - Cheung, William A1 - Clark, Melody S. A1 - Convey, Peter A1 - Danis, Bruno A1 - David, Bruno A1 - De Broyer, Claude A1 - di Prisco, Guido A1 - Griffiths, Huw A1 - Laffont, Remi A1 - Peck, Lloyd S. A1 - Pierrat, Benjamin A1 - Riddle, Martin J. A1 - Saucede, Thomas A1 - Turner, John A1 - Verde, Cinzia A1 - Wang, Zhaomin A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic a cross-disciplinary concept JF - Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research N2 - Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of the future of the Antarctic biosphere are increasingly demanded by decision makers and the public, and are of fundamental scientific interest. This paper briefly reviews existing predictive models applied to Antarctic ecosystems before providing a conceptual framework for the further development of spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models. The concept suggests how to improve approaches to relating species' habitat description to the physical environment, for which a case study on sea urchins is presented. In addition, the concept integrates existing and new ideas to consider dynamic components, particularly information on the natural history of key species, from physiological experiments and biomolecular analyses. Thereby, we identify and critically discuss gaps in knowledge and methodological limitations. These refer to process understanding of biological complexity, the need for high spatial resolution oceanographic data from the entire water column, and the use of data from biomolecular analyses in support of such ecological approaches. Our goal is to motivate the research community to contribute data and knowledge to a holistic, Antarctic-specific, macroecological framework. Such a framework will facilitate the integration of theoretical and empirical work in Antarctica, improving our mechanistic understanding of this globally influential ecoregion, and supporting actions to secure this biodiversity hotspot and its ecosystem services. KW - Environmental change KW - integrative modelling framework KW - spatially and temporally explicit modelling macroecology KW - biodiversity KW - habitat suitability models Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091 SN - 0800-0395 VL - 31 IS - 6 PB - Co-Action Publ. CY - Jarfalla ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ziege, Madlen A1 - Hennige-Schulz, Carmen A1 - Muecksch, Frauke A1 - Bierbach, David A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph A1 - Streit, Bruno A1 - Plath, Martin T1 - A comparison of two methods to assess audience-induced changes in male mate choice JF - Current zoology N2 - Multidirectional communicative interactions in social networks can have a profound effect on mate choice behavior. Male Atlantic molly Poecilia mexicana exhibit weaker mating preferences when an audience male is presented. This could be a male strategy to reduce sperm competition risk: interacting more equally with different females may be advantageous because rivals might copy mate choice decisions. In line with this hypothesis, a previous study found males to show a strong audience effect when being observed while exercising mate choice, but not when the rival was presented only before the choice tests. Audience effects on mate choice decisions have been quantified in poeciliid fishes using association preference designs, but it remains unknown if patterns found from measuring association times translate into actual mating behavior. Thus, we created five audience treatments simulating different forms of perceived sperm competition risk and determined focal males' mating preferences by scoring pre-mating (nipping) and mating behavior (gonopodial thrusting). Nipping did not reflect the pattern that was found when association preferences were measured, while a very similar pattern was uncovered in thrusting behavior. The strongest response was observed when the audience could eavesdrop on the focal male's behavior. A reduction in the strength of focal males' preferences was also seen after the rival male had an opportunity to mate with the focal male's preferred mate. In comparison, the reduction of mating preferences in response to an audience was greater when measuring association times than actual mating behavior. While measuring direct sexual interactions between the focal male and both stimulus females not only the male's motivational state is reflected but also females' behavior such as avoidance of male sexual harassment. KW - Communication networks KW - Male mate choice KW - Non-independent mate choice KW - Sexual selection KW - Sperm competition risk KW - Audience effect Y1 - 2012 SN - 1674-5507 VL - 58 IS - 1 SP - 84 EP - 94 PB - Current Zoology CY - Beijing ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lim, Sze Chern A1 - Friemel, Martin A1 - Marum, Justine E. A1 - Tucker, Elena J. A1 - Bruno, Damien L. A1 - Riley, Lisa G. A1 - Christodoulou, John A1 - Kirk, Edwin P. A1 - Boneh, Avihu A1 - DeGennaro, Christine M. A1 - Springer, Michael A1 - Mootha, Vamsi K. A1 - Rouault, Tracey A. A1 - Leimkühler, Silke A1 - Thorburn, David R. A1 - Compton, Alison G. T1 - Mutations in LYRM4, encoding ironsulfur cluster biogenesis factor ISD11, cause deficiency of multiple respiratory chain complexes JF - Human molecular genetics N2 - Ironsulfur clusters (ISCs) are important prosthetic groups that define the functions of many proteins. Proteins with ISCs (called ironsulfur or FeS proteins) are present in mitochondria, the cytosol, the endoplasmic reticulum and the nucleus. They participate in various biological pathways including oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), the citric acid cycle, iron homeostasis, heme biosynthesis and DNA repair. Here, we report a homozygous mutation in LYRM4 in two patients with combined OXPHOS deficiency. LYRM4 encodes the ISD11 protein, which forms a complex with, and stabilizes, the sulfur donor NFS1. The homozygous mutation (c.203GT, p.R68L) was identified via massively parallel sequencing of 1000 mitochondrial genes (MitoExome sequencing) in a patient with deficiency of complexes I, II and III in muscle and liver. These three complexes contain ISCs. Sanger sequencing identified the same mutation in his similarly affected cousin, who had a more severe phenotype and died while a neonate. Complex IV was also deficient in her skeletal muscle. Several other FeS proteins were also affected in both patients, including the aconitases and ferrochelatase. Mutant ISD11 only partially complemented for an ISD11 deletion in yeast. Our in vitro studies showed that the l-cysteine desulfurase activity of NFS1 was barely present when co-expressed with mutant ISD11. Our findings are consistent with a defect in the early step of ISC assembly affecting a broad variety of FeS proteins. The differences in biochemical and clinical features between the two patients may relate to limited availability of cysteine in the newborn period and suggest a potential approach to therapy. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/hmg/ddt295 SN - 0964-6906 SN - 1460-2083 VL - 22 IS - 22 SP - 4460 EP - 4473 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Basso, Stefano A1 - Fischer, Svenja A1 - Lun, David A1 - Bloeschl, Guenter A1 - Merz, Ralf A1 - Guse, Bjorn A1 - Viglione, Alberto A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Macdonald, Elena A1 - Wietzke, Luzie A1 - Schumann, Andreas T1 - Understanding heavy tails of flood peak distributions JF - Water resources research N2 - Statistical distributions of flood peak discharge often show heavy tail behavior, that is, extreme floods are more likely to occur than would be predicted by commonly used distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. This heavy tail behavior may surprise flood managers and citizens, as human intuition tends to expect light tail behavior, and the heaviness of the tails is very difficult to predict, which may lead to unnecessarily high flood damage. Despite its high importance, the literature on the heavy tail behavior of flood distributions is rather fragmented. In this review, we provide a coherent overview of the processes causing heavy flood tails and the implications for science and practice. Specifically, we propose nine hypotheses on the mechanisms causing heavy tails in flood peak distributions related to processes in the atmosphere, the catchment, and the river system. We then discuss to which extent the current knowledge supports or contradicts these hypotheses. We also discuss the statistical conditions for the emergence of heavy tail behavior based on derived distribution theory and relate them to the hypotheses and flood generation mechanisms. We review the degree to which the heaviness of the tails can be predicted from process knowledge and data. Finally, we recommend further research toward testing the hypotheses and improving the prediction of heavy tails. KW - extreme events KW - flood frequency KW - flood risk KW - upper tail Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030506 SN - 0043-1397 SN - 1944-7973 VL - 58 IS - 6 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Duethmann, Doris A1 - Bolch, Tobias A1 - Farinotti, Daniel A1 - Kriegel, David A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Pieczonka, Tino A1 - Jiang, Tong A1 - Su, Buda A1 - Güntner, Andreas T1 - Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia JF - Water resources research N2 - Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period 1957-2004. This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended. KW - trend analysis KW - data-based KW - simulation-based KW - multiobjective calibration KW - hydrological modeling KW - glacier melt Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016716 SN - 0043-1397 SN - 1944-7973 VL - 51 IS - 6 SP - 4727 EP - 4750 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bresch, David N. A1 - Domeisen, Daniela I. A1 - Feser, Frauke A1 - Koszalka, Inga A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Pantillon, Florian A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Pinto, Joaquim G. A1 - Punge, Heinz Jürgen A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Strehlow, Karen A1 - Weisse, Ralf A1 - Wurpts, Andreas T1 - Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards JF - Reviews of geophysics N2 - Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. KW - impact forecasting KW - natural hazards KW - early warning Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704 SN - 8755-1209 SN - 1944-9208 VL - 58 IS - 4 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tarasova, Larisa A1 - Merz, Ralf A1 - Kiss, Andrea A1 - Basso, Stefano A1 - Blöchl, Günter A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Viglione, Alberto A1 - Plötner, Stefan A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Schumann, Andreas A1 - Fischer, Svenja A1 - Ahrens, Bodo A1 - Anwar, Faizan A1 - Bárdossy, András A1 - Bühler, Philipp A1 - Haberlandt, Uwe A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Krug, Amelie A1 - Lun, David A1 - Müller-Thomy, Hannes A1 - Pidoto, Ross A1 - Primo, Cristina A1 - Seidel, Jochen A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Wietzke, Luzie T1 - Causative classification of river flood events JF - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Water N2 - A wide variety of processes controls the time of occurrence, duration, extent, and severity of river floods. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in enhancing the accuracy of local and regional flood frequency estimates and support the detection and interpretation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper provides a critical review of existing causative classifications of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events, discusses their validity and applications, and identifies opportunities for moving toward more comprehensive approaches. So far no unified definition of causative mechanisms of flood events exists. Existing frameworks for classification of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events adopt different perspectives: hydroclimatic (large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric state at the time of the event), hydrological (catchment scale precipitation patterns and antecedent catchment state), and hydrograph-based (indirectly considering generating mechanisms through their effects on hydrograph characteristics). All of these approaches intend to capture the flood generating mechanisms and are useful for characterizing the flood processes at various spatial and temporal scales. However, uncertainty analyses with respect to indicators, classification methods, and data to assess the robustness of the classification are rarely performed which limits the transferability across different geographic regions. It is argued that more rigorous testing is needed. There are opportunities for extending classification methods to include indicators of space-time dynamics of rainfall, antecedent wetness, and routing effects, which will make the classification schemes even more useful for understanding and estimating floods. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Methods KW - flood genesis KW - flood mechanisms KW - flood typology KW - historical floods KW - hydroclimatology of floods Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1353 SN - 2049-1948 VL - 6 IS - 4 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER -