TY  - JOUR
A1  - Nussbaumer, S.
A1  - Schaub, Y.
A1  - Huggel, C.
A1  - Walz, Ariane
T1  - Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes
JF  - Natural hazards and earth system sciences
N2  - Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential.
 Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014
SN  - 1561-8633
VL  - 14
IS  - 6
SP  - 1611
EP  - 1624
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huss, Matthias
A1  - Bookhagen, Bodo
A1  - Huggel, C.
A1  - Jacobsen, Dean
A1  - Bradley, Raymond S.
A1  - Clague, J. J.
A1  - Vuille, Mathias
A1  - Buytaert, Wouter
A1  - Cayan, D. R.
A1  - Greenwood, G.
A1  - Mark, B. G.
A1  - Milner, A. M.
A1  - Weingartner, Rolf
A1  - Winder, M.
T1  - Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice
JF  - Earths future
N2  - The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier-and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations.Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice.
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000514
SN  - 2328-4277
VL  - 5
SP  - 418
EP  - 435
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -