TY - JOUR A1 - Konon, Alexander A1 - Fritsch, Michael A1 - Kritikos, Alexander T1 - Business cycles and start-ups across industries BT - An empirical analysis of German regions JF - Journal of Business Venturing Insights N2 - We analyze whether start-up rates in different industries systematically change with business cycle variables. Using a unique data set at the industry level, we mostly find correlations that are consistent with counter-cyclical influences of the business cycle on entries in both innovative and non-innovative industries. Entries into the large-scale industries, including the innovative part of manufacturing, are only influenced by changes in the cyclical component of unemployment, while entries into small-scale industries, like knowledge intensive services, are mostly influenced by changes in the cyclical component of GDP. Thus, our analysis suggests that favorable conditions in terms of high GDP might not be germane for start-ups. Given that both innovative and non-innovative businesses react counter-cyclically in ‘regular’ recessions, business formation may have a stabilizing effect on the economy. KW - New business formation KW - Entrepreneurship KW - Business cycle KW - Manufacturing KW - Services KW - Innovative industries Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2018.04.006 SN - 0883-9026 SN - 1873-2003 VL - 33 IS - 6 SP - 742 EP - 761 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Konon, Alexander A1 - Kritikos, Alexander T1 - Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: BT - sometimes worse than the toss of a coin JF - Small business economics : an international journal N2 - The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices-from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method should be applied if information on personality traits is used for prediction and advice? In psychological research, group profiles are widely employed. In this contribution, we examine the performance of profiles using the example of career prediction and advice, involving a comparison of average trait scores of successful entrepreneurs with the traits of potential entrepreneurs. Based on a simple theoretical model estimated with GSOEP data and analyzed with Monte Carlo methods, we show, for the first time, that the choice of the comparison method matters substantially. We reveal that under certain conditions the performance of average profiles is inferior to the tossing of a coin. Alternative methods, such as directly estimating success probabilities, deliver better performance and are more robust. KW - Advice KW - Personality KW - Entrepreneurship KW - Profiles Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8 SN - 0921-898X SN - 1573-0913 VL - 53 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 20 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - THES A1 - Konon, Alexander T1 - Essays on career choice under risk and ambiguity T1 - Essays über Karrierewahl unter Risiko und Unsicherheit N2 - This dissertation consists of five self-contained essays, addressing different aspects of career choices, especially the choice of entrepreneurship, under risk and ambiguity. In Chapter 2, the first essay develops an occupational choice model with boundedly rational agents, who lack information, receive noisy feedback, and are restricted in their decisions by their personality, to analyze and explain puzzling empirical evidence on entrepreneurial decision processes. In the second essay, in Chapter 3, I contribute to the literature on entrepreneurial choice by constructing a general career choice model on the basis of the assumption that outcomes are partially ambiguous. The third essay, in Chapter 4, theoretically and empirically analyzes the impact of media on career choices, where information on entrepreneurship provided by the media is treated as an informational shock affecting prior beliefs. The fourth essay, presented in Chapter 5, contains an empirical analysis of the effects of cyclical macro variables (GDP and unemployment) on innovative start-ups in Germany. In the fifth, and last, essay in Chapter 6, we examine whether information on personality is useful for advice, using the example of career advice. N2 - Diese Dissertation besteht aus fünf eigenständigen Aufsätzen, die sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten von Berufswahl, insbesondere der Wahl von Entrepreneurship, unter Risiko und Unsicherheit befassen. In Kapitel 2 entwickelt der erste Aufsatz ein Berufswahlmodell mit begrenzt-rationalen Agenten, die eingeschränkte Information haben, Feedback mit Rauschkomponenten erhalten und in ihren Entscheidungen durch ihre Persönlichkeit eingeschränkt sind, um einige bisher unerklärte Charakteristika von unternehmerischen Entscheidungsprozessen zu analysieren und zu erklären. Im zweiten Aufsatz in Kapitel 3 wird die Literatur zur Karrierewahl durch eine neue Perspektive ergänzt. Der Aufsatz konstruiert ein allgemeines Modell auf der Grundlage der Annahme, dass Entscheidungsergebnisse (teilweise) unsicher sind. Der dritte Aufsatz in Kapitel 4 analysiert theoretisch und empirisch die Auswirkung von Medien auf Berufsentscheidungen. Informationen über Entrepreneurship, die von den Medien zur Verfügung gestellt werden, werden als Informationsschocks behandelt, die vorherige Überzeugungen beeinflussen. Der vierte Aufsatz, der in Kapitel 5 vorgestellt wird, enthält eine empirische Analyse der Auswirkungen von zyklischen, regionalen Makrovariablen (Bruttoinlandsprodukt und Arbeitslosigkeit) auf innovative Start-Ups in Deutschland. Im fünften und letzten Aufsatz in Kapitel 6 untersuchen wir am Beispiel der Berufsberatung, ob Informationen über die Persönlichkeit für Vorhersagen und Empfehlungen nützlich sind. KW - ambiguity KW - entrepreneurship KW - Bayesian learning KW - simulation KW - Unsicherheit KW - Entrepreneurship KW - Bayes'sches Lernen KW - Simulationsmodelle Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416466 ER -