TY  - JOUR
A1  - Gomez-Zapata, Juan Camilo
A1  - Pittore, Massimiliano
A1  - Cotton, Fabrice
A1  - Lilienkamp, Henning
A1  - Shinde, Simantini
A1  - Aguirre, Paula
A1  - Santa Maria, Hernan
T1  - Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models
JF  - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
N2  - In seismic risk assessment, the sources of uncertainty associated with building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. Conventional practices such as assuming absolute portfolio compositions (i.e., proportions per building class) from expert-based assumptions over aggregated data crudely disregard the contribution of uncertainty of the exposure upon earthquake loss models. In this work, we introduce the concept that the degree of knowledge of a building stock can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach that integrates both expert-based prior distributions and data collection on individual buildings. We investigate the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the portfolio composition on scenario-based earthquake loss models through an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement based on synthetic building portfolios. For illustrative purposes, we consider the residential building stock of Valparaiso (Chile) subjected to seismic ground-shaking from one subduction earthquake. We have found that building class reconnaissance, either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach), or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in the statistical modelling of exposure. To model the vulnerability of such a heterogeneous building stock, we require that their associated set of structural fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods. Thereby, we also discuss the relevance and specific uncertainty upon generating either uncorrelated or spatially cross-correlated ground motion fields within this framework. We successively show how various epistemic uncertainties embedded within these probabilistic exposure models are differently propagated throughout the computed direct financial losses. This work calls for further efforts to redesign desktop exposure studies, while also highlighting the importance of exposure data collection with standardized and iterative approaches.
KW  - Epistemic uncertainty
KW  - Sensitivity analysis
KW  - Scheme
KW  - Faceted taxonomy
KW  - Probabilistic exposure modelling
KW  - Earthquake scenario
KW  - Data collection
KW  - Earthquake loss modelling
KW  - Spatially cross-correlated ground motion
KW  - fields
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9
SN  - 1570-761X
SN  - 1573-1456
N1  - Update notice

Correction to: Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models (Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, (2022), 20, 5, (2401-2438), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9)

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, Volume 20, Issue 5, Pages 2439, March 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01340-z
VL  - 20
IS  - 5
SP  - 2401
EP  - 2438
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  -