TY  - JOUR
A1  - Goswami, Bedartha
A1  - Boers, Niklas
A1  - Rheinwalt, Aljoscha
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
A1  - Heitzig, Jobst
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
T1  - Abrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an ‘uncertainty-aware’ framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02456-6
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 9
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
A1  - Adkins, Jess F.
A1  - Meyer, Hanno
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
A1  - Kumar, Kanikicharla Krishna
A1  - Haug, Gerald H.
T1  - Strong influence of water vapor source dynamics on stable isotopes in precipitation observed in Southern Meghalaya, NE India
N2  - To calibrate delta O-18 time-series from speleothems in the eastern Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region of India, and to understand the moisture regime over the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) we analyze the delta O-18 and delta D of rainwater, collected in 2007 and 2008 near Cherrapunji, India. delta D values range from + 18.5 parts per thousand to 144.4 parts per thousand, while delta O-18 varies between +0.8 parts per thousand and 18.8 parts per thousand. The Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) is found to be indistinguishable from the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL). Late ISM (September-October) rainfall exhibits lowest delta O-18 and delta D values, with little relationship to the local precipitation amount. There is a trend to lighter isotope values over the course of the ISM, but it does not correlate with the patterns of temperature and rainfall amount delta O-18 and delta D time-series have to be interpreted with caution in terms of the 'amount effect' in this subtropical region. We find that the temporal trend in delta O-18 reflects increasing transport distance during the ISM, isotopic changes in the northern BoB surface waters during late ISM, and vapor re-equilibration with rain droplets. Using an isotope box model for surface ocean waters, we quantify the potential influence of river runoff on the isotopic composition of the seasonal freshwater plume in the northern BoB. Temporal variations in this source can contribute up to 25% of the observed changes in stable isotopes of precipitation in NE India. To delineate other moisture sources, we use backward trajectory computations and find a strong correlation between source region and isotopic composition. Palaeoclimatic stable isotope time-series from northeast Indian speleothems likely reflect changes in moisture source and transport pathway, as well as the isotopic composition of the BoB surface water, all of which in turn reflect ISM strength. Stalagmite records from the region can therefore be interpreted as integrated measures of the ISM strength.
Y1  - 2010
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0012821X
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.038
SN  - 0012-821X
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
A1  - Rehfeld, Kira
A1  - Goswami, Bedartha
A1  - Baldini, James U. L.
A1  - Ridley, H. E.
A1  - Kennett, D. J.
A1  - Prufer, K. M.
A1  - Aquino, Valorie V.
A1  - Asmerom, Yemane
A1  - Polyak, V. J.
A1  - Cheng, Hai
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
T1  - Constructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)
JF  - Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question.
 We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage.
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012
SN  - 1814-9324
VL  - 8
IS  - 5
SP  - 1765
EP  - 1779
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lechleitner, Franziska A.
A1  - Baldini, James U. L.
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
A1  - Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd
A1  - McIntyre, Cameron
A1  - Goswami, Bedartha
A1  - Jamieson, Robert A.
A1  - van der Voort, Tessa S.
A1  - Prufer, Keith
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
A1  - Culleton, Brendan J.
A1  - Kennett, Douglas J.
A1  - Asmerom, Yemane
A1  - Polyak, Victor
A1  - Eglinton, Timothy I.
T1  - Hydrological and climatological controls on radiocarbon concentrations in a tropical stalagmite
JF  - Geochimica et cosmochimica acta : journal of the Geochemical Society and the Meteoritical Society
N2  - Precisely-dated stalagmites are increasingly important archives for the reconstruction of terrestrial paleoclimate at very high temporal resolution. In-depth understanding of local conditions at the cave site and of the processes driving stalagmite deposition is of paramount importance for interpreting proxy signals incorporated in stalagmite carbonate. Here we present a sub-decadally resolved dead carbon fraction (DCF) record for a stalagmite from Yok Balum Cave (southern Belize). The record is coupled to parallel stable carbon isotope (delta C-13) and U/Ca measurements, as well as radiocarbon (C-14) measurements from soils overlying the cave system. Using a karst carbon cycle model we disentangle the importance of soil and karst processes on stalagmite DCF incorporation, revealing a dominant host rock dissolution control on total DCF. Covariation between DCF, delta C-13, and U/Ca indicates that karst processes are a common driver of all three parameters, suggesting possible use of delta C-13 and trace element ratios to independently quantify DCF variability. A statistically significant multi-decadal lag of variable length exists between DCF and reconstructed solar activity, suggesting that solar activity influenced regional precipitation in Mesoamerica over the past 1500 years, but that the relationship was non-static. Although the precise nature of the observed lag is unclear, solar-induced changes in North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may play a role. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KW  - Stalagmite
KW  - Tropics
KW  - Radiocarbon
KW  - Trace elements
KW  - Hydroclimate
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2016.08.039
SN  - 0016-7037
SN  - 1872-9533
VL  - 194
SP  - 233
EP  - 252
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
T1  - Changes in monsoonal precipitation and atmospheric circulation during the Holocene reconstructed from stalagmites from Northeastern India
T1  - Veränderungen monsunalen Niederschlages und atmosphärischer Zirkulation während des Holozäns, rekonstruiert aus Stalagmiten aus Nordostindien
N2  - Recent years witnessed a vast advent of stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives. The multitude of geochemical and physical proxies and a promise of a precise and accurate age model greatly appeal to palaeoclimatologists. Although substantial progress was made in speleothem-based palaeoclimate research and despite high-resolution records from low-latitudinal regions, proving that palaeo-environmental changes can be archived on sub-annual to millennial time scales our comprehension of climate dynamics is still fragmentary. This is in particular true for the summer monsoon system on the Indian subcontinent. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As this rainfall belt migrates northward during boreal summer, it brings monsoonal rainfall. ISM strength depends however on a variety of factors, including snow cover in Central Asia and oceanic conditions in the Indic and Pacific. Presently, many of the factors influencing the ISM are known, though their exact forcing mechanism and mutual relations remain ambiguous. Attempts to make an accurate prediction of rainfall intensity and frequency and drought recurrence, which is extremely important for South Asian countries, resemble a puzzle game; all interaction need to fall into the right place to obtain a complete picture. My thesis aims to create a faithful picture of climate change in India, covering the last 11,000 ka. NE India represents a key region for the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM, as it is here where the monsoon splits into a northwestward and a northeastward directed arm. The Meghalaya Plateau is the first barrier for northward moving air masses and receives excessive summer rainfall, while the winter season is very dry. The proximity of Meghalaya to the Tibetan Plateau on the one hand and the BoB on the other hand make the study area a key location for investigating the interaction between different forcings that governs the ISM. A basis for the interpretation of palaeoclimate records, and a first important outcome of my thesis is a conceptual model which explains the observed pattern of seasonal changes in stable isotopes (d18O and d2H) in rainfall. I show that although in tropical and subtropical regions the amount effect is commonly called to explain strongly depleted isotope values during enhanced rainfall, alone it cannot account for observed rainwater isotope variability in Meghalaya. Monitoring of rainwater isotopes shows no expected negative correlation between precipitation amount and d18O of rainfall. In turn I find evidence that the runoff from high elevations carries an inherited isotopic signature into the BoB, where during the ISM season the freshwater builds a strongly depleted plume on top of the marine water. The vapor originating from this plume is likely to memorize' and transmit further very negative d18O values. The lack of data does not allow for quantication of this plume effect' on isotopes in rainfall over Meghalaya but I suggest that it varies on seasonal to millennial timescales, depending on the runoff amount and source characteristics. The focal point of my thesis is the extraction of climatic signals archived in stalagmites from NE India. High uranium concentration in the stalagmites ensured excellent age control required for successful high-resolution climate reconstructions. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and grey-scale data allow unprecedented insights into millennial to seasonal dynamics of the summer and winter monsoon in NE India. ISM strength (i. e. rainfall amount) is recorded in changes in d18Ostalagmites. The d13C signal, reflecting drip rate changes, renders a powerful proxy for dry season conditions, and shows similarities to temperature-related changes on the Tibetan Plateau. A sub-annual grey-scale profile supports a concept of lower drip rate and slower stalagmite growth during dry conditions. During the Holocene, ISM followed a millennial-scale decrease of insolation, with decadal to centennial failures resulting from atmospheric changes. The period of maximum rainfall and enhanced seasonality corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Optimum observed in Europe. After a phase of rather stable conditions, 4.5 kyr ago, the strengthening ENSO system dominated the ISM. Strong El Nino events weakened the ISM, especially when in concert with positive Indian Ocean dipole events. The strongest droughts of the last 11 kyr are recorded during the past 2 kyr. Using the advantage of a well-dated stalagmite record at hand I tested the application of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to detect sub-annual to sub-decadal changes in element concentrations in stalagmites. The development of a large ablation cell allows for ablating sample slabs of up to 22 cm total length. Each analyzed element is a potential proxy for different climatic parameters. Combining my previous results with the LAICP- MS-generated data shows that element concentration depends not only on rainfall amount and associated leaching from the soil. Additional factors, like biological activity and hydrogeochemical conditions in the soil and vadose zone can eventually affect the element content in drip water and in stalagmites. I present a theoretical conceptual model for my study site to explain how climatic signals can be transmitted and archived in stalagmite carbonate. Further, I establish a first 1500 year long element record, reconstructing rainfall variability. Additionally, I hypothesize that volcanic eruptions, producing large amounts of sulfuric acid, can influence soil acidity and hence element mobilization.
N2  - Stalagmiten erfuhren in den letzten Jahren vermehrt Aufmerksamkeit als bedeutende Paläoklima- Archive. Paläoklimatologen sind beeindruckt von der grossen Zahl geochemischer und physikalischer Indikatoren (Proxies) und der Möglichkeit, präzise absolute Altersmodelle zu erstellen. Doch obwohl substantielle Fortschritte in der speleothem-basierten Klimaforschung gemacht wurden, und trotz hochaufgelöster Archive aus niederen Breiten, welche zeigen, das Umweltveränderungen auf Zeitskalen von Jahren bis Jahrtausenden archiviert und rekonstruiert werden können, bleibt unser Verständnis der Klimadynamik fragmentarisch. Ganz besonders gilt dies für den Indischen Sommermonsun (ISM) auf dem Indischen Subkontinent. Der ISM ist heute als ein integraler Bestandteil der intertropischen Konvergenzzone verstanden. Sobald dieser Regengürtel während des borealen Sommer nordwärts migriert kann der ISM seine feuchten Luftmassen auf dem Asiatischen Festland entladen. Dabei hängt die Stärke des ISM von einer Vielzahl von Faktoren ab. Zu diesen gehören die Schneedicke in Zentralasien im vorhergehenden Winter und ozeanische Bedingungen im Indischen und Pazifschen Ozean. Heute sind viele dieser Faktoren bekannt. Trotzdem bleiben deren Mechanismen und internen Verbindungen weiterhin mysteriös. Versuche, korrekte Vorhersagen zu Niederschlagsintensität und Häufigkeit oder zu Dürreereignissen zu erstellen ähneln einem Puzzle. All die verschiedenen Interaktionen müssen an die richtige Stelle gelegt werden, um ein sinnvolles Bild entstehen zu lassen. Meine Dissertation versucht, ein vertrauenswürdiges Bild des sich wandelnden Holozänen Klimas in Indien zu erstellen. NE Indien ist eine Schlüsselregion für den östlichen Arm des ISM, da sich hier der ISM in zwei Arme aufteilt, einen nordwestwärts und einen nordostwärts gerichteten. Das Meghalaya Plateau ist das erste Hindernis für die sich nordwärts bewegenden Luftmassen und erhält entsprechend exzessive Niederschläge während des Sommers. Die winterliche Jahreszeit dagegen ist sehr trocken. Die Nähe zum Tibetplateau einerseits und der Bucht von Bengalen andererseits determinieren die Schlüsselposition dieser Region für das Studium der Interaktionen der den ISM beeinflussenden Kräfte. Ein Fundament für die Interpretation der Paläoklimarecords und ein erstes wichtiges Ergebnis meiner Arbeit ist ein konzeptuelles Modell, welches die beobachteten saisonalen Veränderungen stabiler Isotope (d18O und d2H) im Niederschlag erklärt. Ich zeige, das obwohl in tropischen und subtropischen Regionen meist der amount effect zur Erklärung stark negativer Isotopenwerte während starker Niederschläge herangezogen wird, dieser allein nicht ausreicht, um die Isotopenvariabilität im Niederschlag Meghalaya's zu erklären. Die Langzeitbeobachtung der Regenwasserisotopie zeigt keine negative Korrelation zwischen Niederschlagsmenge und d18O. Es finden sich Hinweise, das der Abfluss aus den Hochgebirgsregionen Tibets und des Himalaya eine Isotopensignatur an das Oberflächenwasser der Bucht von Bengalen vererbt. Dort bildet sich aus isotopisch stark abgereicherten Wässern während des ISM eine Süsswasserlinse aus. Es ist wahrscheinlich, das Wasserdampf, der aus dieser Linse stammt, ein Isotopensignal aufgeprägt bekommt, welches abgereichertes d18O weitertransportiert. Der Mangel an Daten lässt es bisher leider nicht zu, quantitative Aussagen über den Einfluss dieses plume effect' auf Niederschläge in Meghalaya zu treffen. Es lässt sich allerdings vermuten, das dieser Einfluss auf saisonalen wie auch auf langen Zeitskalen variabel ist, abhängig vom Abfluss und der Quellencharacteristik. Der Fokus meiner Arbeit liegt in der Herauslösung klimatischer Signale aus nordostindischen Stalagmiten. Hohe Urankonzentrationen in diesen Stalagmiten erlaubt eine exzellente Alterskontrolle, die für hochauflösende Klimarekonstruktionen unerlässlich ist. Die stabilen Isotope (d18O und d13C), sowie Grauwertdaten, erlauben einmalige Einblicke in die Dynamik des Sommer und auch des Wintermonsun in NE Indien. Die ISM Stärke (d. h. Niederschlagsmenge) wird in Veränderungen in den d18Ostalagmites reflektiert. Das d13C Signal, welches Tropfratenänderungen speichert, dient als potenter Indikator für winterliche Trockenheitsbedingungen. Es zeigt Ähnlichkeit zu temperaturabhängigen Veränderungen auf dem Tibetplateau. Das sub-annuell aufgelöste Grauwertprofil stärkt das Konzept, das verminderte Tropfraten und langsameres Stalagmitenwachstum eine Folge von Trockenheit sind. Während des Holozäns folgte der ISM der jahrtausendelangen Verringerung der Insolation. Es finden sich aber ebenso rapide Anomalien, die aus atmosphärischen Veränderungen resultieren. Die Phase des höchsten Niederschlages und erhöhter Saisonalität korrespondiert mit dem Holozänen Thermalen Maximum. Nach einer Phase einigermassen stabilen Bedingungen begann vor ca. 4500 Jahren ENSO einen zunehmenden Einfluss auf den ISM auszuüben. Starke El Nino Ereignisse schwächen den ISM, besonders wenn diese zeitgleich mit positiven Indian Ocean Dipole Ereignissen auftreten. Die stärksten Dürren des gesamten Holozäns traten in den letzten 2000 Jahren auf. Um zusätzliche Informationen aus den hervorragenden Proben zu gewinnen nutzte ich die Vorteile der laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Diese erlaubt die Detektion sub-annueller bis sub-dekadischer Elementkonzentrationsveränderungen in Stalagmiten. Mittels einer neu entwickelten Ablationszelle konnten Proben von maximal 22 cm Länge untersucht werden. Jedes analysierte Element ist ein potentieller Träger einer Klimainformation. Die Kombination der früheren Ergebnisse mit denen der LA-IPC-MS zeigt, das die Elementkonzentrationen nicht nur von Niederschlagsveränderungen und assoziiertem Auswaschen aus dem Boden abhängen. Zusätzlich können auch die biologische Aktivität und hydrogeochemische Bedingungen in der vadosen Zone Einfluss auf die Elementzusammensetzung im Tropfwasser und in den Stalagmiten haben. Darum entwickelte ich ein theoretisches Modell für meinen Standort, um zu klären, wie Klimasignale von der Atmosphäre in die Höhle transportiert werden können. Ein anschliessend rekonstruierter 1500 Jahre langer Proxyrecord zeigt Niederschlagsvariabilität an. Zudem besteht die Möglichkeit, das Vulkaneruptionen, welche grosse Mengen an Schwefelsäure produzieren, eine Bodenversauerung verursachen und damit die Elementmobilisierung verstärken können.
KW  - Indischer Sommermonsun
KW  - Stabile Isotope
KW  - Stalagmiten
KW  - Holozän
KW  - Bucht von Bengalen
KW  - Indian Summer Monsoon
KW  - Bay of Bengal
KW  - stable isotopes
KW  - stalagmites
KW  - Laser ablation
Y1  - 2009
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-37807
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lechleitner, Franziska A.
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
A1  - Cheng, Hai
A1  - Plessen, Birgit
A1  - Rehfeld, Kira
A1  - Goswami, Bedartha
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
A1  - Eroglu, Deniz
A1  - Adkins, Jess F.
A1  - Haug, Gerald
T1  - Climatic and in-cave influences on delta O-18 and delta C-13 in a stalagmite from northeastern India through the last deglaciation
JF  - Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal
N2  - Northeastern (NE) India experiences extraordinarily pronounced seasonal climate, governed by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The vulnerability of this region to floods and droughts calls for detailed and highly resolved paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the recurrence rate and driving factors of ISM changes. We use stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta C-13) from stalagmite MAW-6 from Mawmluh Cave to infer climate and environmental conditions in NE India over the last deglaciation (16-6ka). We interpret stalagmite delta O-18 as reflecting ISM strength, whereas delta C-13 appears to be driven by local hydroclimate conditions. Pronounced shifts in ISM strength over the deglaciation are apparent from the delta O-18 record, similarly to other records from monsoonal Asia. The ISM is weaker during the late glacial (LG) period and the Younger Dryas, and stronger during the BOlling-Allerod and Holocene. Local conditions inferred from the delta C-13 record appear to have changed less substantially over time, possibly related to the masking effect of changing precipitation seasonality. Time series analysis of the delta O-18 record reveals more chaotic conditions during the late glacial and higher predictability during the Holocene, likely related to the strengthening of the seasonal recurrence of the ISM with the onset of the Holocene.
KW  - Indian Summer Monsoon
KW  - stalagmite
KW  - oxygen isotopes
KW  - carbon isotopes
KW  - deglaciation
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2017.72
SN  - 0033-5894
SN  - 1096-0287
VL  - 88
SP  - 458
EP  - 471
PB  - Cambridge Univ. Press
CY  - New York
ER  -