TY  - GEN
A1  - Nathan, Ran
A1  - Horvitz, Nir
A1  - He, Yanping
A1  - Kuparinen, Anna
A1  - Schurr, Frank Martin
A1  - Katul, Gabriel G.
T1  - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments
T2  - Ecology letters
N2  - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - demography
KW  - dispersal
KW  - fat-tailed dispersal kernels
KW  - forecasting
KW  - forests
KW  - invasion by extremes
KW  - long-distance dispersal
KW  - mechanistic models
KW  - plant migration
KW  - population spread
KW  - range expansion
KW  - survival
KW  - wind dispersal
Y1  - 2011
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x
SN  - 1461-023X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 211
EP  - 219
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Malden
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schurr, Frank Martin
A1  - Pagel, Jörn
A1  - Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento
A1  - Groeneveld, Juergen
A1  - Bykova, Olga
A1  - O'Hara, Robert B.
A1  - Hartig, Florian
A1  - Kissling, W. Daniel
A1  - Linder, H. Peter
A1  - Midgley, Guy F.
A1  - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris
A1  - Singer, Alexander
A1  - Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
T1  - How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography
JF  - Journal of biogeography
N2  - Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because sourcesink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.
KW  - Biodiversity monitoring
KW  - climate change
KW  - ecological forecasts
KW  - ecological niche modelling
KW  - ecological theory
KW  - geographical range shifts
KW  - global environmental change
KW  - mechanistic models
KW  - migration
KW  - process-based statistics
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02737.x
SN  - 0305-0270
VL  - 39
IS  - 12
SP  - 2146
EP  - 2162
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -