TY - RPRT A1 - Kirchner, Jan-Robert A1 - Prinz, Andreas A1 - Richter, Martin A1 - Strätling, Ansgar T1 - Bilanzierungshilfe nach NKF-CUIG im kommunalen Haushaltsrecht in NRW BT - Praxishilfe zur rechtssicheren Anwendung und Prüfung T2 - ifV - Positionspapier N2 - Durch die Covid-19-Pandemie und den Ukraine- Krieg sind den Kommunen erhebliche finanzielle Mehrbelastungen in Form von zusätzlichen Aufwendungen und Mindererträgen entstanden. Das Land NRW hatte daher mit dem „Gesetz zur Isolierung der aus der Covid-19-Pandemie folgenden Belastungen der kommunalen Haushalte im Land Nordrhein-Westfalen (NKF-COVID-19- Isolierungsgesetz – NKF-CIG)“ vom 29. September 2020 beschlossen, befristet die Aufstellung der Haushalte zu erleichtern und finanzielle Mehrbelastungen bilanziell zu „isolieren“. Mit dem ersten Änderungsgesetz vom 1. Dezember 2021 wurden die Regelungen überarbeitet und der Geltungszeitraum verlängert. Mit dem zweiten Änderungsgesetz vom 9. Dezember 2022 erfolgte eine sachliche und zeitliche Erweiterung. Gleichzeitig wurde das Gesetz umbenannt, um die sachliche Erweiterung um die finanziellen Mehrbelastungen aus dem Ukraine-Krieg zu verdeutlichen (NKF-CUIG). Unser Positionspapier setzt sich in einem ersten Schritt kritisch mit der bilanziellen „Isolierung“ dieser finanziellen Mehrbelastungen mittels Bilanzierungshilfe auseinander und identifiziert sowohl die Herausforderungen bei der genauen Bestimmung dieser finanziellen Mehrbelastungen als auch die Anwendungsprobleme bei der Bildung, dem Ausweis und der Bewertung dieser Bilanzierungshilfe im kommunalen Jahresabschluss. In einem zweiten Schritt werden die Auswirkungen der Bilanzierung einer solchen Bilanzierungshilfe auf die Prüfung des Jahresabschlusses eingehend untersucht und kritisch diskutiert. In einem dritten Schritt wird eine rechtspolitische Bewertung des NKF-CUIG vorgenommen. Zusammenfassend ist festzuhalten, dass eine „Hilfe“, wie sie der Begriff der Bilanzierungshilfe im pragmatischen Sprachgebrauch suggeriert, in keiner Weise festzustellen ist. Auch in Zukunft ist mit Situationen zu rechnen, die der Covid-Pandemie und dem Ukraine-Krieg vergleichbar sind. Auch dann könnten finanzielle Mehrbelastungen die rechtliche Handlungsfähigkeit der Kommunen gefährden. Um diese zu erhalten, sollten vom Landesgesetzgeber jedoch andere Maßnahmen als die Aktivierung einer Bilanzierungshilfe in Betracht gezogen werden. Die alternativen Maßnahmen sollten einerseits den Besonderheiten der historischen Situation und dem Ziel des Erhalts der rechtlichen Handlungsfähigkeit der Kommunen gerecht werden. Sie sollten gleichzeitig aber auch Systembrüche in der Doppik und im Haushaltsrecht sowie unnötige Bürokratielasten vermeiden. KW - kommunales Haushaltsrecht KW - NRW KW - NKF-CUIG KW - Bilanzierungshilfe KW - Jahresabschluss KW - Prüfung KW - Blianzierung Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-636159 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Angenendt, Steffen A1 - Koch, Anne A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Predicting irregular migration BT - SWP research paper T2 - high hopes, meagre results N2 - German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved. KW - Migration KW - Migrationspolitik KW - Wanderungsprognosen KW - Vorhersage KW - Vorausschau KW - displacement forecasting KW - Krisenfrüherkennung KW - Risikoanalyse KW - Künstliche Intelligenz KW - maschinelles Lernen KW - Agentenbasierte Modellierung KW - predicting irregular migration KW - forecast KW - quantitative migration prediction KW - UNHCR KW - IOM KW - Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN) KW - Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM) KW - Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) KW - Frontex KW - Pact on Migration and Asylum Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18449/2023RP11 SN - 2747-5123 SN - 1863-1053 VL - 11 PB - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Angenendt, Steffen A1 - Koch, Anne A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Die Prognose ungeregelter Wanderungen BT - große Erwartungen, begrenzter Nutzen T2 - SWP-Studie N2 - Die deutsche und europäische Migrationspolitik befindet sich im permanenten Krisenmodus. Plötzliche Anstiege ungeregelter Zuwanderung nähren ein Gefühl von Kontrollverlust, das wiederum von populistischen Kräften instrumentalisiert wird. Daher hat die Politik großes Interesse an quantitativen Migrationsprognosen. Besondere Erwartungen wecken KI-gestützte Instrumente zur Vorhersage ungeregelter Wanderungsbewegungen, wie sie zurzeit entwickelt werden. Die Anwendungsfelder dieser Instrumente sind vielfältig. Sie reichen von einer Stärkung der Aufnahmekapazitäten in der EU über die präventive Verschärfung von Grenzschutzmaßnahmen und eine bedarfsgerechte Bereitstellung von Ressourcen in humanitären Krisen bis zur längerfristigen entwicklungspolitischen Programmplanung. Allerdings besteht eine deutliche Kluft zwischen den Erwartungen an die neuen Instrumente und ihrem praktischen Mehrwert. Zum einen sind die technischen Möglichkeiten begrenzt, und mittelfristige Vorhersagen zu ungeregelten Wanderungen sind methodisch kaum möglich. Zum anderen mangelt es an Verfahren, um die Ergebnisse in politische Entscheidungsprozesse einfließen zu lassen. Die hohe Nachfrage nach Prognosen erklärt sich aus den politischen Funktionen quantitativer Migrationsvorhersage - beispielsweise ihrem Potential für die politische Kommunikation, die Mitteleinwerbung und die Legitimierung politischer Entscheidungen. Investitionen in die Qualität der den Prognosen zugrunde liegenden Daten sind sinnvoller als die Entwicklung immer neuer Instrumente. Bei der Mittelvergabe für Prognosen sollten Anwendungen in der Nothilfe und der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit priorisiert werden. Zudem sollten die Krisenfrüherkennung und die Risikoanalyse gestärkt werden, und die beteiligten Akteure sollten sich besser vernetzen. KW - Migration KW - Migrationspolitik KW - Wanderungsprognosen KW - Vorhersage KW - Vorausschau KW - Displacement Forecasting KW - Krisenfrüherkennung KW - Risikoanalyse KW - Künstliche Intelligenz KW - maschinelles Lernen KW - Agentenbasierte Modellierung Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18449/2023S10 SN - 2747-5115 SN - 1611-6372 VL - 10 PB - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Brodeur, Abel A1 - Mikola, Derek A1 - Cook, Nikolai A1 - Brailey, Thomas A1 - Briggs, Ryan A1 - Gendre, Alexandra de A1 - Dupraz, Yannick A1 - Fiala, Lenka A1 - Gabani, Jacopo A1 - Gauriot, Romain A1 - Haddad, Joanne A1 - Lima, Goncalo A1 - Ankel-Peters, Jörg A1 - Dreber, Anna A1 - Campbell, Douglas A1 - Kattan, Lamis A1 - Fages, Diego Marino A1 - Mierisch, Fabian A1 - Sun, Pu A1 - Wright, Taylor A1 - Connolly, Marie A1 - Hoces de la Guardia, Fernando A1 - Johannesson, Magnus A1 - Miguel, Edward A1 - Vilhuber, Lars A1 - Abarca, Alejandro A1 - Acharya, Mahesh A1 - Adjisse, Sossou Simplice A1 - Akhtar, Ahwaz A1 - Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez A1 - Albrecht, Sabina A1 - Andersen, Synve Nygaard A1 - Andlib, Zubaria A1 - Arrora, Falak A1 - Ash, Thomas A1 - Bacher, Etienne A1 - Bachler, Sebastian A1 - Bacon, Félix A1 - Bagues, Manuel A1 - Balogh, Timea A1 - Batmanov, Alisher A1 - Barschkett, Mara A1 - Basdil, B. Kaan A1 - Dower, Jaromneda A1 - Castek, Ondrej A1 - Caviglia-Harris, Jill A1 - Strand, Gabriella Chauca A1 - Chen, Shi A1 - Chzhen, Asya A1 - Chung, Jong A1 - Collins, Jason A1 - Coppock, Alexander A1 - Cordeau, Hugo A1 - Couillard, Ben A1 - Crechet, Jonathan A1 - Crippa, Lorenzo A1 - Cui, Jeanne A1 - Czymara, Christian A1 - Daarstad, Haley A1 - Dao, Danh Chi A1 - Dao, Dong A1 - Schmandt, Marco David A1 - Linde, Astrid de A1 - Melo, Lucas De A1 - Deer, Lachlan A1 - Vera, Micole De A1 - Dimitrova, Velichka A1 - Dollbaum, Jan Fabian A1 - Dollbaum, Jan Matti A1 - Donnelly, Michael A1 - Huynh, Luu Duc Toan A1 - Dumbalska, Tsvetomira A1 - Duncan, Jamie A1 - Duong, Kiet Tuan A1 - Duprey, Thibaut A1 - Dworschak, Christoph A1 - Ellingsrud, Sigmund A1 - Elminejad, Ali A1 - Eissa, Yasmine A1 - Erhart, Andrea A1 - Etingin-Frati, Giulian A1 - Fatemi-Pour, Elaheh A1 - Federice, Alexa A1 - Feld, Jan A1 - Fenig, Guidon A1 - Firouzjaeiangalougah, Mojtaba A1 - Fleisje, Erlend A1 - Fortier-Chouinard, Alexandre A1 - Engel, Julia Francesca A1 - Fries, Tilman A1 - Fortier, Reid A1 - Fréchet, Nadjim A1 - Galipeau, Thomas A1 - Gallegos, Sebastián A1 - Gangji, Areez A1 - Gao, Xiaoying A1 - Garnache, Cloé A1 - Gáspár, Attila A1 - Gavrilova, Evelina A1 - Ghosh, Arijit A1 - Gibney, Garreth A1 - Gibson, Grant A1 - Godager, Geir A1 - Goff, Leonard A1 - Gong, Da A1 - González, Javier A1 - Gretton, Jeremy A1 - Griffa, Cristina A1 - Grigoryeva, Idaliya A1 - Grtting, Maja A1 - Guntermann, Eric A1 - Guo, Jiaqi A1 - Gugushvili, Alexi A1 - Habibnia, Hooman A1 - Häffner, Sonja A1 - Hall, Jonathan D. A1 - Hammar, Olle A1 - Kordt, Amund Hanson A1 - Hashimoto, Barry A1 - Hartley, Jonathan S. A1 - Hausladen, Carina I. A1 - Havránek, Tomáš A1 - Hazen, Jacob A1 - He, Harry A1 - Hepplewhite, Matthew A1 - Herrera-Rodriguez, Mario A1 - Heuer, Felix A1 - Heyes, Anthony A1 - Ho, Anson T. Y. A1 - Holmes, Jonathan A1 - Holzknecht, Armando A1 - Hsu, Yu-Hsiang Dexter A1 - Hu, Shiang-Hung A1 - Huang, Yu-Shiuan A1 - Huebener, Mathias A1 - Huber, Christoph A1 - Huynh, Kim P. A1 - Irsova, Zuzana A1 - Isler, Ozan A1 - Jakobsson, Niklas A1 - Frith, Michael James A1 - Jananji, Raphaël A1 - Jayalath, Tharaka A. A1 - Jetter, Michael A1 - John, Jenny A1 - Forshaw, Rachel Joy A1 - Juan, Felipe A1 - Kadriu, Valon A1 - Karim, Sunny A1 - Kelly, Edmund A1 - Dang, Duy Khanh Hoang A1 - Khushboo, Tazia A1 - Kim, Jin A1 - Kjellsson, Gustav A1 - Kjelsrud, Anders A1 - Kotsadam, Andreas A1 - Korpershoek, Jori A1 - Krashinsky, Lewis A1 - Kundu, Suranjana A1 - Kustov, Alexander A1 - Lalayev, Nurlan A1 - Langlois, Audrée A1 - Laufer, Jill A1 - Lee-Whiting, Blake A1 - Leibing, Andreas A1 - Lenz, Gabriel A1 - Levin, Joel A1 - Li, Peng A1 - Li, Tongzhe A1 - Lin, Yuchen A1 - Listo, Ariel A1 - Liu, Dan A1 - Lu, Xuewen A1 - Lukmanova, Elvina A1 - Luscombe, Alex A1 - Lusher, Lester R. A1 - Lyu, Ke A1 - Ma, Hai A1 - Mäder, Nicolas A1 - Makate, Clifton A1 - Malmberg, Alice A1 - Maitra, Adit A1 - Mandas, Marco A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Márk, Lili A1 - Martignano, Andres A1 - Marsh, Abigail A1 - Masetto, Isabella A1 - McCanny, Anthony A1 - McManus, Emma A1 - McWay, Ryan A1 - Metson, Lennard A1 - Kinge, Jonas Minet A1 - Mishra, Sumit A1 - Mohnen, Myra A1 - Möller, Jakob A1 - Montambeault, Rosalie A1 - Montpetit, Sébastien A1 - Morin, Louis-Philippe A1 - Morris, Todd A1 - Moser, Scott A1 - Motoki, Fabio A1 - Muehlenbachs, Lucija A1 - Musulan, Andreea A1 - Musumeci, Marco A1 - Nabin, Munirul A1 - Nchare, Karim A1 - Neubauer, Florian A1 - Nguyen, Quan M. P. A1 - Nguyen, Tuan A1 - Nguyen-Tien, Viet A1 - Niazi, Ali A1 - Nikolaishvili, Giorgi A1 - Nordstrom, Ardyn A1 - Nü, Patrick A1 - Odermatt, Angela A1 - Olson, Matt A1 - ien, Henning A1 - Ölkers, Tim A1 - Vert, Miquel Oliver i. A1 - Oral, Emre A1 - Oswald, Christian A1 - Ousman, Ali A1 - Özak, Ömer A1 - Pandey, Shubham A1 - Pavlov, Alexandre A1 - Pelli, Martino A1 - Penheiro, Romeo A1 - Park, RyuGyung A1 - Martel, Eva Pérez A1 - Petrovičová, Tereza A1 - Phan, Linh A1 - Prettyman, Alexa A1 - Procházka, Jakub A1 - Putri, Aqila A1 - Quandt, Julian A1 - Qiu, Kangyu A1 - Nguyen, Loan Quynh Thi A1 - Rahman, Andaleeb A1 - Rea, Carson H. A1 - Reiremo, Adam A1 - Renée, Laëtitia A1 - Richardson, Joseph A1 - Rivers, Nicholas A1 - Rodrigues, Bruno A1 - Roelofs, William A1 - Roemer, Tobias A1 - Rogeberg, Ole A1 - Rose, Julian A1 - Roskos-Ewoldsen, Andrew A1 - Rosmer, Paul A1 - Sabada, Barbara A1 - Saberian, Soodeh A1 - Salamanca, Nicolas A1 - Sator, Georg A1 - Sawyer, Antoine A1 - Scates, Daniel A1 - Schlüter, Elmar A1 - Sells, Cameron A1 - Sen, Sharmi A1 - Sethi, Ritika A1 - Shcherbiak, Anna A1 - Sogaolu, Moyosore A1 - Soosalu, Matt A1 - Srensen, Erik A1 - Sovani, Manali A1 - Spencer, Noah A1 - Staubli, Stefan A1 - Stans, Renske A1 - Stewart, Anya A1 - Stips, Felix A1 - Stockley, Kieran A1 - Strobel, Stephenson A1 - Struby, Ethan A1 - Tang, John A1 - Tanrisever, Idil A1 - Yang, Thomas Tao A1 - Tastan, Ipek A1 - Tatić, Dejan A1 - Tatlow, Benjamin A1 - Seuyong, Féraud Tchuisseu A1 - Thériault, Rémi A1 - Thivierge, Vincent A1 - Tian, Wenjie A1 - Toma, Filip-Mihai A1 - Totarelli, Maddalena A1 - Tran, Van-Anh A1 - Truong, Hung A1 - Tsoy, Nikita A1 - Tuzcuoglu, Kerem A1 - Ubfal, Diego A1 - Villalobos, Laura A1 - Walterskirchen, Julian A1 - Wang, Joseph Taoyi A1 - Wattal, Vasudha A1 - Webb, Matthew D. A1 - Weber, Bryan A1 - Weisser, Reinhard A1 - Weng, Wei-Chien A1 - Westheide, Christian A1 - White, Kimberly A1 - Winter, Jacob A1 - Wochner, Timo A1 - Woerman, Matt A1 - Wong, Jared A1 - Woodard, Ritchie A1 - Wroński, Marcin A1 - Yazbeck, Myra A1 - Yang, Gustav Chung A1 - Yap, Luther A1 - Yassin, Kareman A1 - Ye, Hao A1 - Yoon, Jin Young A1 - Yurris, Chris A1 - Zahra, Tahreen A1 - Zaneva, Mirela A1 - Zayat, Aline A1 - Zhang, Jonathan A1 - Zhao, Ziwei A1 - Yaolang, Zhong T1 - Mass reproducibility and replicability BT - a new hope T2 - I4R discussion paper series N2 - This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes. KW - conomics KW - open science KW - political science KW - replication KW - reproduction KW - research transparency Y1 - 2024 SN - 2752-1931 IS - 107 PB - Institute for Replication CY - Essen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Siedler, Thomas A1 - Anger, Silke A1 - Christoph, Bernhard A1 - Galkiewicz, Agata Danuta A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Peter, Frauke A1 - Sandner, Malte T1 - War, international spillovers, and adolescents BT - evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 T2 - Discussion paper series N2 - Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded shortly after the conflict began and applying difference-in-differences (DiD) models over time, we find a significant decline in the outcome after the war started. These findings provide new evidence on how armed conflicts influence social trust and well-being among young people in a country not directly involved in the war. KW - war KW - trust KW - social capital KW - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Y1 - 2024 UR - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/16921/war-international-spillovers-and-adolescents-evidence-from-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-in-2022 SN - 2365-9793 VL - 16921 PB - IZA CY - Bonn ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Lessmann, Kai A1 - Gruner, Friedemann A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates BT - Deterring Mitigation or Increasing Ambition? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We analyze how conventional emissions trading schemes (ETS) can be modified by introducing “clean-up certificates” to allow for a phase of net-negative emissions. Clean-up certificates bundle the permission to emit CO2 with the obligation for its removal. We show that demand for such certificates is determined by cost-saving technological progress, the discount rate and the length of the compliance period. Introducing extra clean-up certificates into an existing ETS reduces near-term carbon prices and mitigation efforts. In contrast, substituting ETS allowances with clean-up certificates reduces cumulative emissions without depressing carbon prices or mitigation in the near term. We calibrate our model to the EU ETS and identify reforms where simultaneously (i) ambition levels rise, (ii) climate damages fall, (iii) revenues from carbon prices rise and (iv) carbon prices and aggregate mitigation cost fall. For reducing climate damages, roughly half of the issued clean-up certificates should replace conventional ETS allowances. In the context of the EU ETS, a European Carbon Central Bank could manage the implementation of cleanup certificates and could serve as an enforcement mechanism. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 79 KW - carbon removal KW - carbon pricing KW - net-negative emissions KW - carbon debt Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-641368 SN - 2628-653X IS - 79 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Barschkett, Mara A1 - Huebener, Mathias A1 - Leibing, Andreas A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik T1 - Replication of Atwood’s (2022) the long-term effects of measles vaccination on earnings and employment T2 - I4R discussion paper series N2 - Atwood (2022) analyzes the effects of the 1963 U.S. measles vaccination on longrun labor market outcomes, using a generalized difference-in-differences approach. We reproduce the results of this paper and perform a battery of robustness checks. Overall, we confirm that the measles vaccination had positive labor market effects. While the negative effect on the likelihood of living in poverty and the positive effect on the probability of being employed are very robust across the different specifications, the headline estimate-the effect on earnings-is more sensitive to the exclusion of certain regions and survey years. Y1 - 2023 SN - 2752-1931 IS - 33 PB - Institute for Replication CY - Essen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Mulder, Peter T1 - Energy policies and pollution in two developing country cities BT - A quantitative model T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 78 KW - pollution KW - energy policy KW - discrete choice KW - developing country cities Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638472 SN - 2628-653X IS - 78 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa T1 - Communicating Cartel Intentions T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While the economic harm of cartels is caused by their price-increasing effect, sanctioning by courts rather targets at the underlying process of firms reaching a price-fixing agreement. This paper provides experimental evidence on the question whether such sanctioning meets the economic target, i.e., whether evidence of a collusive meeting of the firms and of the content of their communication reliably predicts subsequent prices. We find that already the mere mutual agreement to meet predicts a strong increase in prices. Conversely, express distancing from communication completely nullifies its otherwise price-increasing effect. Using machine learning, we show that communication only increases prices if it is very explicit about how the cartel plans to behave. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 77 KW - cartel KW - collusion KW - communication KW - machine learning KW - experiment Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638469 SN - 2628-653X IS - 77 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schwab, Regine A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Massoud, Samer T1 - The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars BT - evidence from Syria (2017 - 2020) T2 - HiCN Working paper N2 - The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants. KW - civil war KW - collective targeting KW - civilian infrastructure KW - hospitals KW - rebel attacks KW - Syria Y1 - 2023 UR - https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/HiCN-WP-403-2.pdf VL - 403 PB - Households in Conflict Network CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Maliranta, Mika A1 - Nippala, Veera A1 - Nurmi, Satu T1 - Does gender of firm ownership matter? BT - Female entrepreneurs and the gender pay gap T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is – starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others – firm managers – determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 76 KW - entrepreneurship KW - gender pay gap KW - discrimination KW - linked employer-employee data Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-636194 SN - 2628-653X IS - 76 SP - 1 EP - 39 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Debre, Maria Josepha A1 - Sommerer, Thomas T1 - Weathering the storm? BT - the third wave of autocratization and international organization membership T2 - IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations N2 - Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of subregime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ucigcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Debre-Sommerer-Working-Paper-11.21.23.pdf PB - UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation CY - La Jolla, CA ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Dörfler, Thomas ED - Lohmann, Sascha ED - Vorrath, Judith T1 - Interface challenges of UN sanctions with forums of export control BT - towards cohesion and consistency in non-proliferation sanctions? T2 - International sanctions: improving implementation through better interface management Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/WP_International_Sanctions.pdf SP - 23 EP - 31 PB - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. A1 - Silva-Goncalves, Juliana A1 - Uhlendorff, Arne T1 - Locus of control and the preference for agency T2 - IZA discussion paper N2 - We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people's preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal-agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually link locus of control to decision-making: (i) preference for agency; (ii) optimism and (iii) confidence regarding the return to effort; and (iv) illusion of control. Knowing the return and cost of stated effort, principals either retain or delegate the right to make an investment decision that generates payoffs for themselves and their agents. Extending the game to the context in which the return to stated effort is unknown allows us to explicitly study the relationship between locus of control and beliefs about the return to effort. We find that internal locus of control is linked to the preference for agency, an effect that is driven by women. We find no evidence that locus of control influences optimism and confidence about the return to stated effort, or that it operates through an illusion of control. KW - locus of control KW - preference for agency KW - decision-making KW - beliefs KW - optimism KW - confidence KW - illusion of control Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4416820 SN - 2365-9793 VL - No. 16061 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Matzat, Johannes A1 - Schmeißer, Aiko T1 - Do unions shape political ideologies at work? T2 - CESifo Working Paper N2 - Labor unions’ greatest potential for political influence likely arises from their direct connection to millions of individuals at the workplace. There, they may change the ideological positions of both unionizing workers and their non-unionizing management. In this paper, we analyze the workplace-level impact of unionization on workers’ and managers’ political campaign contributions over the 1980-2016 period in the United States. To do so, we link establishment-level union election data with transaction-level campaign contributions to federal and local candidates. In a difference-in-differences design that we validate with regression discontinuity tests and a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that unionization leads to a leftward shift of campaign contributions. Unionization increases the support for Democrats relative to Republicans not only among workers but also among managers, which speaks against an increase in political cleavages between the two groups. We provide evidence that our results are not driven by compositional changes of the workforce and are weaker in states with Right-to-Work laws where unions can invest fewer resources in political activities. KW - labor unions KW - political ideology KW - campaign contributions KW - worker-manager relations Y1 - 2023 SN - 2364-1428 SN - 1617-9595 IS - 10301 PB - CESifo GmbH (Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft) CY - München ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Herlo, Bianca A1 - Ullrich, André A1 - Vladova, Gergana T1 - Sustainable digital sovereignty BT - interdependencies between sustainable digitalization and digital sovereignty T2 - Weizenbaum series N2 - This study is dedicated to the interdependencies between digital sovereignty and sustainable digitalization, which need to be explicitly linked to an increasing degree in political discourse, academia, and societal debates. Digital skills are the prerequisites for shaping digitalization in the interest of society and sustainable development. KW - digital sovereignty Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.34669/WI.WS/32 SN - 2748-5587 VL - 32 PB - Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society - the German Internet Institute CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian T1 - Equilibrium selection in infinitely repeated games with communication T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The present paper proposes a novel approach for equilibrium selection in the infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma where players can communicate before choosing their strategies. This approach yields a critical discount factor that makes different predictions for cooperation than the usually considered sub-game perfect or risk dominance critical discount factors. In laboratory experiments, we find that our factor is useful for predicting cooperation. For payoff changes where the usually considered factors and our factor make different predictions, the observed cooperation is consistent with the predictions based on our factor. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 75 KW - cooperation KW - communication KW - infinitely repeated game KW - machine learning Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-631800 SN - 2628-653X IS - 75 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Petrishcheva, Vasilisa T1 - Does communication increase the precision of beliefs? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In this paper, we study one channel through which communication may facilitate cooperative behavior – belief precision. In a prisoner’s dilemma experiment, we show that communication not only makes individuals more optimistic that their partner will cooperate but also increases the precision of this belief, thereby reducing strategic uncertainty. To disentangle the shift in mean beliefs from the increase in precision, we elicit beliefs and precision in a two-stage procedure and in three situations: without communication, before communication, and after communication. We find that the precision of beliefs increases during communication. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 74 KW - prisoner’s dilemma KW - communication KW - beliefs KW - strategic uncertainty KW - experiment Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-629367 SN - 2628-653X IS - 74 SP - 1 EP - 33 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Nastasa, Ruxandra T1 - Germany and the EU’s pursuit of gender equality in peace and security BT - A look at the implementation of the WPS Agenda T2 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere T2 - State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers N2 - The Women, Peace and Security Agenda (WPSA) is an international framework addressing the disproportionate impact of armed conflict on women and girls and promoting their meaningful participation in peacebuilding efforts. The Security Council called on Member States to develop National Action Plans (NAPs) to operationalize the four pillars of the Agenda. This study looks at the relevant steps undertaken by both Germany and the European Union. The author calls for improvements on either level and makes four recommendations. N2 - Die Agenda für Frauen, Frieden und Sicherheit (Women, Peace and Security Agenda, WPSA) ist ein internationaler Rahmen, der sich mit den unverhältnismäßigen Auswirkungen bewaffneter Konflikte auf Frauen und Mädchen befasst und ihre sinnvolle Beteiligung an friedensschaffenden Maßnahmen fördert. Der Sicherheitsrat forderte die Mitgliedstaaten auf, Nationale Aktionspläne (NAPs) zu entwickeln, um die vier Säulen der Agenda umzusetzen. In dieser Studie werden die entsprechenden Schritte Deutschlands und der Europäischen Union untersucht. Die Autorin fordert Verbesserungen auf beiden Ebenen und gibt vier Empfehlungen dazu. T3 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere = State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers - 16 KW - WPS Agenda KW - Nationale Aktionspläne KW - feministische Außenpolitik KW - Frauen KW - Frieden KW - WPS agenda KW - national action plans KW - feminist foreign policy KW - women KW - peace Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-628501 SN - 2509-6974 IS - 16 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Eisenkopf, Gerald A1 - Nithammer, Juri T1 - Pre-election communication in public good games with endogenous leaders T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Leadership plays an important role for the efficient and fair solution of social dilemmas but the effectiveness of a leader can vary substantially. Two main factors of leadership impact are the ability to induce high contributions by all group members and the (expected) fair use of power. Participants in our experiment decide about contributions to a public good. After all contributions are made, the leader can choose how much of the joint earnings to assign to herself; the remainder is distributed equally among the followers. Using machine learning techniques, we study whether the content of initial open statements by the group members predicts their behavior as a leader and whether groups are able to identify such clues and endogenously appoint a “good” leader to solve the dilemma. We find that leaders who promise fairness are more likely to behave fairly, and that followers appoint as leaders those who write more explicitly about fairness and efficiency. However, in their contribution decision, followers focus on the leader’s first-move contribution and place less importance on the content of the leader’s statements. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 73 KW - leadership KW - public good KW - voting KW - experiment KW - promises Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623952 SN - 2628-653X IS - 73 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Estrin, Saul A1 - Khavul, Susanna A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Löher, Jonas T1 - Access to digital finance BT - equity crowdfunding across countries and platforms T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated with differences across three countries and seven platforms. Using a novel dataset of successful fundraising on the most prominent platforms in the UK, Germany, and the USA, we find the underlying relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised for entrepreneurs is loglinear, with a coefficient less than one and concave to the origin. We identify significant variation in the average amount invested in each pitch across countries and platforms. Our findings have implications for market actors as well as regulators who set competitive frameworks. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 72 KW - equity crowdfunding KW - soft information KW - entrepreneurship KW - finance KW - financial access and inclusion Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623261 SN - 2628-653X IS - 72 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Saniter, Nils A1 - Schumann, Mathias A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - Do internships pay off? BT - the effects of student internships on earnings T2 - Journal of human resources N2 - We study the causal effect of student internship experience in firms on earnings later in life. We use mandatory firm internships at German universities as an instrument for doing a firm internship while attending university. Employing longitudinal data from graduate surveys, we find positive and significant earnings returns of about 6 percent in both ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) regressions. The positive returns are particularly pronounced for individuals and areas of study that are characterized by a weak labor market orientation. The empirical findings show that graduates who completed a firm internship face a lower risk of unemployment during the first year of their careers, suggesting a smoother transition to the labor market. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.57.4.0418-9460R2 SN - 0022-166X SN - 1548-8004 VL - 57 IS - 4 SP - 1242 EP - 1275 PB - University of Wisconsin Press CY - Madison ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kellner, Maximilian A1 - Amberg, Maximilian A1 - Bergmann, Tobias A1 - Roolfs, Christina A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Entlastungspakete für Energiepreisanstiege BT - Auswirkungen und Nachbesserungsbedarf Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/user_upload/Kalkuhl/2022_MCC_Entlastungspakete_fuer_Energiepreisanstiege_.pdf U6 - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6617130 PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Missbach, Leonard A1 - Ohlendorf, Nils A1 - Feindt, Simon A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Effects of the energy price crisis on European households BT - socio-political challenges and policy options Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/C18_MCC_Publications/2022_MCC_Effects_of_the_energy_price_crisis_on_European_households.pdf PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Knopf, Brigitte A1 - Amberg, Maximilian A1 - Bergmann, Tobias A1 - Kellner, Maximilian A1 - Stüber, Sophia A1 - Haywood, Luke A1 - Roolfs, Christina A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Auswirkungen der Energiepreiskrise auf Haushalte in Deutschland BT - sozialpolitische Herausforderungen und Handlungsoptionen Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/C18_MCC_Publications/2022_MCC_Auswirkungen_der_Energiepreiskrise_auf_Haushalte.pdf PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Amberg, Maximilian A1 - Bergmann, Tobias A1 - Knopf, Brigitte A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Gaspreisdeckel, Mehrwertsteuersenkung, Energiepauschale BT - wie kann die Bevölkerung zielgenau und schnell entlastet werden? Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/C18_MCC_Publications/2022_MCC_Gaspreise_und_Entlastungsma%C3%9Fnahmen.pdf PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Knopf, Brigitte A1 - Amberg, Maximilian A1 - Bergmann, Tobias A1 - Kellner, Maximilian A1 - Stüber, Sophia A1 - Haywood, Luke A1 - Roolfs, Christina A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Effects of the energy price crisis on households in Germany BT - socio-political challenges and policy options Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/C18_MCC_Publications/2022_MCC_Effects_of_the_energy_price_crisis_on_households.pdf PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Nastansky, Andreas A1 - Siris, Sarah T1 - Risikoverbund zwischen Banken und Staaten BT - eine empirische Analyse für den Euroraum T2 - Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge N2 - Die Begrenzung systemischer Risiken ist essentieller Bestandteil der neuen internationalen Finanzmarktordnung. Dabei galt es nicht nur die Verflechtung der Banken untereinander, sondern auch die Verbindung zwischen den Staatsfinanzen und der Solvenz der nationalen Bankensysteme (dem sog. Risikoverbund zwischen Staat und Banken) zu durchbrechen. Der Beitrag beleuchtet die Entwicklung der Forderungen gegenüber Staaten in den Bankbilanzen der Euroländer und des Eurosystems im Zeitverlauf sowie den daraus erwachsenden Risiken für die Finanzstabilität. Hierzu werden die Determinanten des Risikoverbunds theoretisch wie empirisch analysiert. Die fiskalische Kapazität der Eurostaaten wird anhand verschiedener Faktoren wie der Verschuldungsquote, dem Leistungsbilanzsaldo und der Kredit-BIP Lücke aufgezeigt; anschließend werden die Strukturen der Bankensysteme im Euroraum untersucht. Im Einzelnen werden die private und staatliche Gesamtverschuldung, die konsolidierte Bankenbilanzsumme und die darin enthaltenen Verbindlichkeiten sowie der Anteil des Bankensektors an der Bruttowertschöpfung in Relation zur Wirtschaftsleistung betrachtet. Außerdem finden NPE-Bestände in den Bankbilanzen sowie die Renditen der emittierten Staatsanleihen und damit in Verbindung stehenden CDS-Spreads Betrachtung. Zusätzlich werden die Konzentration, der Verschuldungsgrad, Liquiditätsziffern sowie länderspezifische Unterschiede in Art und Fristigkeit der Refinanzierung der Bankensektoren abgebildet. Auf Basis der empirischen Befunde werden im Hinblick auf die wechselseitigen Ansteckungseffekte zwischen Banken und Staaten Implikationen für die Finanzmarktregulierung diskutiert. N2 - Limiting systemic risks is an essential part of the new international financial market regulation. The purpose was not only to break the interconnectedness of banks, but also to reduce the link between public finances and the solvency of national banking systems (the so-called sovereign-bank diabolic loop). This article examines the development of sovereign exposures in the bank balance sheets of the euro countries and the Eurosystem over time and the resulting risks to financial stability. To this end, the determinants of the risk network are analysed both theoretically and empirically. The fiscal capacity of the euro countries is checked on the basis of various factors such as the debt ratio, the current account balance and the credit-GDP gap; the structures of the banking systems in the euro area are then examined. Specifically, total private and public debt, the consolidated banking balance sheet total and the liabilities contained therein as well as the share of the banking sector in gross value added in relation to economic output are evaluated. NPE holdings in bank balance sheets as well as the yields on government bonds issued and the associated CDS spreads are also analysed. Moreover, concentration, leverage ratio, liquidity ratios and country-specific differences in the type and maturity of refinancing in the banking sectors are studied. Based on the empirical findings, implications for the financial market regulation are discussed with regard to the reciprocal contagion effects between banks and states. T3 - Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge - 56 KW - banking KW - fiscal capacity KW - public debt KW - sovereign exposure KW - systemic risk KW - Banken KW - fiskalische Kapazität KW - Staatsanleihen KW - Staatsverschuldung KW - systemisches Risiko Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-619891 VL - 56 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Blanz, Alkis A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Heinemann, Maik A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Moretti, Nikolaj T1 - Fiscal Policy and Energy Price Shocks T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The effects of energy price increases are heterogeneous between households and firms. Financially constrained poorer households, who spend a larger relative share of their income on energy, are particularly affected. In this analysis, we examine the macroeconomic and welfare effects of energy price shocks in the presence of credit-constrained households that have subsistence-level energy demand. Within a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated for the German economy, we compare the performance of different policy measures (transfers and energy subsidies) and different financing schemes (income tax vs. debt). Our results show that credit-constrained households prefer debt over tax financing regardless of the compensation measure due to their difficulty to smooth consumption. On the contrary, rich households tend to prefer tax-financed measures as they increase the labor supply of poor households. From an aggregate perspective, tax-financed measures targeting firms effectively cushion aggregate output losses. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 70 KW - energy prices KW - E-DSGE KW - fiscal policy KW - welfare Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-612763 SN - 2628-653X IS - 70 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Amoroso, Sara A1 - Herrmann, Benedikt A1 - Kritikos, Alexander T1 - The Role of Regulation and Regional Government Quality for High Growth Firms BT - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - High growth firms (HGFs) are important for job creation and considered to be precursors of economic growth. We investigate how formal institutions, like product- and labor-market regulations, as well as the quality of regional governments that implement these regulations, affect HGF development across European regions. Using data from Eurostat, OECD, WEF, and Gothenburg University, we show that both regulatory stringency and the quality of the regional government influence the regional shares of HGFs. More importantly, we find that the effect of labor- and product-market regulations ultimately depends on the quality of regional governments: in regions with high quality of government, the share of HGFs is neither affected by the level of product market regulation, nor by more or less flexibility in hiring and firing practices. Our findings contribute to the debate on the effects of regulations by showing that regulations are not, per se, “good, bad, and ugly”, rather their impact depends on the efficiency of regional governments. Our paper offers important building blocks to develop tailored policy measures that may influence the development of HGFs in a region. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 71 KW - High growth firms KW - Regulation KW - Quality of regional governments KW - Regions Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-612771 SN - 2628-653X IS - 71 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Hilbert, Viola A1 - König, Johannes T1 - Inequality of Opportunity in Wealth BT - Levels, Trends, and Drivers T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While inequality of opportunity (IOp) in earnings is well studied, the literature on IOp in individual net wealth is scarce to non-existent. This is problematic because both theoretical and empirical evidence show that the position in the wealth and income distribution can significantly diverge.We measure ex-ante IOp in net wealth for Germany using data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Ex-ante IOp is defined as the contribution of circumstances to the inequality in net wealth before effort is exerted. The SOEP allows for a direct mapping from individual circumstances to individual net wealth and for a detailed decomposition of net wealth inequality into a variety of circumstances; among them childhood background, intergenerational transfers, and regional characteristics. The ratio of inequality of opportunity to total inequality is stable from 2002 to 2019. This is in sharp contrast to labor earnings, where ex-ante IOp is declining over time. Our estimates suggest that about 62% of the inequality in net wealth is due to circumstances. The most important circumstances are intergenerational transfers, parental occupation, and the region of birth. In contrast, gender and individuals’ own education are the most important circumstances for earnings. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 69 KW - inequality KW - wealth KW - inequality of opportunity KW - decomposition Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-609673 SN - 2628-653X IS - 69 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Späth, Maximilian A1 - Goller, Daniel T1 - Gender differences in investment reactions to irrelevant information T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Economic agents often irrationally base their decision-making on irrelevant information. This research analyzes whether men and women react to futile information about past outcomes. For this purpose, we run a laboratory experiment (Study 1) and use field data (Study 2). In both studies, the behavior of men is consistent with falsely assumed negative autocorrelation, often referred to as gambler’s fallacy Women’s behavior aligns with falsely assumed positive autocorrelation, a notion of the hot hand fallacy. On the aggregate, the two fallacies cancel out. Even when individuals are, on average, rational, the biases in the decision-making of subgroups might cause inefficient outcomes. In a mediation analysis, we find that a) the agents stated perceived probabilities of future outcomes are not blurred by irrelevant information and b) about 40 % of the observed biases are driven by differences in the perceived attractiveness of available choices caused by the irrelevant information. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 67 KW - hot hand fallacy KW - gambler’s fallac KW - gender KW - irrelevant information Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-606351 SN - 2628-653X IS - 67 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Rodríguez Guio, Daniel Felipe T1 - Divergent thinking and post-launch entrepreneurial outcomes BT - non-linearities and the moderating role of experience T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Divergent thinking is the ability to produce numerous and diverse responses to questions or tasks, and it is used as a predictor of creative achievement. It plays a significant role in the business organization’s innovation process and the recognition of new business opportunities. Drawing upon the cumulative process model of creativity in entrepreneurship, we hypothesize that divergent thinking has a lasting effect on post-launch entrepreneurial outcomes related to innovation and growth, but that this relation might not always be linear. Additionally, we hypothesize that domain-specific experience has a moderating role in this relation. We test our hypotheses based on a representative longitudinal sample of 457 German business founders, which we observe up until 40 months after start-up. We find strong relative effects for innovation and growth outcomes. For survival we find conclusive evidence for non-linearities in the effects of divergent thinking. Additionally, we show that such effects are moderated by the type of domain-specific experience that entrepreneurs gathered pre-launch, as it shapes the individual’s ideational abilities to fit into more sophisticated strategies regarding entrepreneurial creative achievement. Our findings have relevant policy implications in characterizing and identifying business start-ups with growth and innovation potential, allowing a more efficient allocation of public and private funds. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 68 KW - divergent thinking KW - entrepreneurial performance KW - survival KW - business expansion KW - innovation Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-607408 SN - 2628-653X IS - 68 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Sondergeld, Virginia A1 - Wrohlich, Katharina T1 - Women in management and the gender pay gap T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We analyze the impact of women’s managerial representation on the gender pay gap among employees on the establishment level using German Linked-Employer-Employee-Data from the years 2004 to 2018. For identification of a causal effect we employ a panel model with establishment fixed effects and industry-specific time dummies. Our results show that a higher share of women in management significantly reduces the gender pay gap within the firm. An increase in the share of women in first-level management e.g. from zero to above 33 percent decreases the adjusted gender pay gap from a baseline of 15 percent by 1.2 percentage points, i.e. to roughly 14 percent. The effect is stronger for women in second-level than first-level management, indicating that women managers with closer interactions with their subordinates have a higher impact on the gender pay gap than women on higher management levels. The results are similar for East and West Germany, despite the lower gender pay gap and more gender egalitarian social norms in East Germany. From a policy perspective, we conclude that increasing the number of women in management positions has the potential to reduce the gender pay gap to a limited extent. However, further policy measures will be needed in order to fully close the gender gap in pay. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 66 KW - gender pay gap KW - women in management KW - board diversity KW - two-way fixed effects KW - linked employer-employee data Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-605813 SN - 2628-653X IS - 66 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Leupold, Florian T1 - What is it good for? BT - On the Inflationary Effects of Military Conflicts T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Military conflicts and wars affect a country’s development in various dimensions. Rising inflation rates are a potentially important economic effect associated with conflict. High inflation can undermine investment, weigh on private consumption, and threaten macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, these effects are not necessarily restricted to the locality of the conflict, but can also spill over to other countries. Therefore, to understand how conflict affects the economy and to make a more comprehensive assessment of the costs of armed conflict, it is important to take inflationary effects into account. To disentangle the conflict-inflation-nexus and to quantify this relationship, we conduct a panel analysis for 175 countries over the period 1950–2019. To capture indirect inflationary effects, we construct a distance based spillover index. In general, the results of our analysis confirm a statistically significant positive direct association between conflicts and inflation rates. This finding is robust across various model specifications. Moreover, our results indicate that conflict induced inflation is not solely driven by increasing money supply. Furthermore, we document a statistically significant positive indirect association between conflicts and inflation rates in uninvolved countries. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 65 KW - inflation KW - wars KW - military conflicts KW - spillover effects KW - dynamic panel estimation Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-597966 SN - 2628-653X IS - 65 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Huber, Katrin A1 - Rolvering, Geske T1 - Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - This paper studies the effect of public child care on mothers’ career trajectories. To this end, we combine county-level data on child care coverage with detailed individual-level information from the German social security records and exploit a set of German reforms leading to a substantial temporal and spatial variation in child care coverage for children under the age of three. We conduct an event study approach that investigates the labor market outcomes of mothers in the years around the birth of their first child. We thereby explore career trajectories, both in terms of quantity and quality of employment. We find that public child care improves maternal labor supply in the years immediately following childbirth. However, the results on quality-related outcomes suggest that the effect of child care provision does not reach far beyond pure employment effects. These results do not change for mothers with different ‘career costs of children’. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 64 KW - child care KW - maternal employment KW - career costs of children KW - women’s careers Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-587310 SN - 2628-653X IS - 64 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Gohl, Niklas T1 - Working Longer, Working Stronger? BT - The Forward-Looking Effects of Increasing the Retirement Age on (Un)employment Behaviour T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Leveraging two cohort-specific pension reforms, this paper estimates the forward-looking effects of an exogenous increase in the working horizon on (un)employment behaviour for individuals with a long remaining statutory working life. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches based on administrative and survey data, I show that a longer legal working horizon increases individuals’ subjective expectations about the length of their work life, raises the probability of employment, decreases the probability of unemployment, and increases the intensity of job search among the unemployed. Heterogeneity analyses show that the demonstrated employment effects are strongest for women and in occupations with comparatively low physical intensity, i.e., occupations that can be performed at older ages. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 63 KW - retirement policies KW - employment KW - DiD Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-585275 SN - 2628-653X IS - 63 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hajos, Yael T1 - A Critical Overview of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern Mechanism BT - The Case of Covid-19 T2 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere T2 - State, Law, and Politics — Research and Discussion Papers N2 - The last years have been affected by Covid-19 and the international emergency mecha-nism to deal with health-related threats. The effects of this period manifested differ-ently worldwide, depending on matters such as international relations, national policies, power dynamics etc. Additionally, the impact of this time will likely have long-term effects which are yet to be known. This paper gives a critical overview of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) mechanism in the context of Covid-19. It does so by explaining the legal framework for states of emergency, specifically in the context of a PHEIC, while considering its restrictions and limitations on human rights. It further outlines issues in the manifestation of global protections and limitations on human rights during Covid-19. Lastly, considering the likelihood of future PHEICs and the known systemic obstructions, this paper offers ways to im-prove this mechanism from a holistic, non-zero-sum perspective. N2 - Die letzten Jahre waren geprägt von Covid-19 und dem internationalen Notfallmecha-nismus zur Bewältigung gesundheitsbe-zogener Bedrohungen. Die Auswirkungen dieser Zeit zeigten sich weltweit unter-schiedlich, abhängig von den internatio-nalen Beziehungen, der nationalen Politik, der Machtdynamik usw. Außerdem werden die Auswirkungen dieser Zeit wahrschein-lich langfristige, heute noch unbekannte Folgen haben. Diese Studie gibt einen kriti-schen Überblick über den Mechanismus für internationale gesundheitliche Notfälle (Public Health Emergency of International Concern – PHEIC) im Kontext von Covid-19. Zu diesem Zweck wird der rechtliche Rahmen für Notfälle, insbesondere im Zusammenhang mit PHEIC, erläutert, und es werden die damit verbundenen Ein-schränkungen und Begrenzungen der Menschenrechte betrachtet. In Anbetracht der Wahrscheinlichkeit künftiger PHEICs und der bekannten systemischen Hin-dernisse bietet dieses Papier schließlich Möglichkeiten zur Verbesserung dieses Mechanismus aus einer ganzheitlichen Per-spektive. T3 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere = State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers - 15 Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-585238 SN - 2509-6974 IS - 15 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Dehnen, Elias T1 - Juridifying Bolsonaro’s mass deforestation policies in Brazil through the International Criminal Court BT - Chances and Challenges T2 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere T2 - State, Law, and Politics — Research and Discussion Papers N2 - Under Brazil's ex-president Bolsonaro, deforestation of the Amazon increased dramatically. An Austrian NGO filed a complaint to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Bolsonaro in October 2021, accusing him of crimes against humanity against the backdrop of his involvement in environmental destruction. This paper deals with the question of whether this initi-ative constitutes a promising means of juridification to mitigate conflicts revolving around mass deforestation in Brazil. It thematizes attempts to juridify environmental destruction in international criminal law and examines the Climate Fund Case at the Brazilian Supreme Court. Finally, emerging problems and arguments in favour of starting preliminary examinations at the ICC against Bolsonaro are illuminated. This paper provides arguments as to why the initiative might be a promising undertaking, even though it is unlikely that Bolsonaro will be arrested. N2 - In der Amtszeit des brasilianischen Ex-Präsidenten Bolsonaro nahm die Abholzung des Amazonasgebiets drastisch zu. Eine österreichi-sche NGO reichte im Oktober 2021 beim Anklä-ger des Internationalen Strafgerichtshofs (IStGH) eine Beschwerde gegen Bolsonaro ein, die seine Abholzungspolitik als Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit einstuft. Der Beitrag behandelt die Frage, ob die Initiative ein vielversprechen-des Mittel der Verrechtlichung darstellt, um Kon-flikte rund um die Massenabholzung des Amazo-nas zu entschärfen. Dafür werden Versuche be-leuchtet, Umweltzerstörung im internationalen Strafrecht zu verrechtlichen. Zudem wird der Klimafonds-Fall vor dem Obersten Gerichtshof Brasiliens vorgestellt. Abschließend werden Probleme und Argumente für die Einleitung von Voruntersuchungen gegen Bolsonaro vor dem IStGH diskutiert. Der Beitrag liefert Argumente, weshalb die Initiative erfolgreich sein könnte, obgleich es unwahrscheinlich ist, dass Bolsonaro verhaftet wird. T3 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere = State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers - 14 Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-581742 SN - 2509-6974 IS - 14 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kienbaum, Janna A1 - Würfl, Katja A1 - Favella, Gianpiero T1 - Leitfaden für einen qualitativen Methoden- und Feldbericht N2 - Der Leitfaden für einen qualitativen Methoden- und Feldbericht ist im Rahmen des DFG-Verbundprojektes “FDNext” (2020-2023) entstanden und dient als Orientierungshilfe für die Dokumentation erhobener Daten mit dem Schwerpunkt auf die qualitative Bildungsforschung. KW - research data management KW - rdm in disciplines KW - data documentation KW - educational sciences KW - qualitative research data KW - Forschungsdatenmanagement KW - disziplinspezifisches FDM KW - Datendokumentation KW - Bildungswissenschaften KW - Qualitative Forschungsdaten Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7247993 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kienbaum, Janna A1 - Fischer, Patryk A1 - Passmann, Sven T1 - Forschungsdatenmanagement bei personenbezogenen Daten BT - eine Handreichung N2 - Das Dokument "Forschungsdatenmanagement bei personenbezogenen Daten - eine Handreichung" versammelt zentrale Inhalte, Verweise und Vorgehensweisen für Forscher*innen, die in einer Studie personenbezogene Daten erheben und diese verarbeiten, archivieren oder veröffentlichen wollen. Die Handreichung verweist an den entsprechenden Abschnitten auf weiterführende Materialien wie insbesondere die Handreichung „Datenschutz“ des Rats für die Sozial-, Verhaltens-, Bildungs- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften (RatSWD). KW - research data management KW - personal information KW - General Data Protection Regulation KW - legal aspects KW - research data KW - discipline specific rdm KW - psychology KW - educational sciences KW - Forschungsdatenmanagement KW - Personenbezogene Daten KW - Datenschutzgrundverordnung KW - rechtliche Aspekte KW - Forschungsdaten KW - Disziplinspezifisches FDM KW - Psychologie KW - Bildungswissenschaften Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7428524 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Baganz, Melissa A1 - de Teresa, Aurelia Gómez A1 - Lingg, Rosana T. A1 - Montijo, Yuriditzi Pascacio T1 - A critical assessment on National Action Plans BT - Challenges and benefits for the promotion and protection of Human Rights T2 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere T2 - State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers N2 - National Action Plans (NAPs) have been increas-ingly adopted world-wide after the Vienna Dec-laration in 1993, where it was urged to consider the improvement and promotion of Human Rights. In this paper, we discuss their usefulness and success by analysing the challenges present-ed during NAP processes as well as the benefits this set of actions entails: The challenges for their implementation outweigh its actual benefits. Nevertheless, NAPs have great potential. Based on new research, we elaborate a set of recom-mendations for improving the design and imple-mentation of national action planning. In order to effectively bring NAP into practice, we consider it crucial to plan and analyse every state local circumstances in detail. The latter is important, since the implementation of a concrete set of actions is intended to directly transform and improve the local living conditions of the people. In a long-term perspective, we defend the benefit of NAP’s implementation for complying obliga-tions set up by HR treaties. N2 - Nationale Aktionspläne (NAP) werden seit der Wiener Erklärung von 1993, in der die Verbesse-rung und Förderung der Menschenrechte gefor-dert wird, weltweit zunehmend angenommen. In diesem Papier diskutieren wir ihren Nutzen und Erfolg, indem wir die Herausforderungen, die sich während der NAP-Prozesse ergeben, sowie die Vorteile, die dieses Maßnahmenpaket mit sich bringt, analysieren: Die Herausforderungen bei ihrer Umsetzung überwiegen die tatsächlichen Vorteile. Dennoch haben NAPs ein großes Poten-zial. Beruhend auf neueren Forschungen erarbei-ten wir eine Reihe von Empfehlungen zur Ver-besserung der Gestaltung und Umsetzung der nationalen Aktionsplanung. Um einen NAP effek-tiv in die Praxis umzusetzen, halten wir es für entscheidend, die lokalen Gegebenheiten jedes Staates im Detail zu planen und zu analysieren. Letzteres ist wichtig, da die Umsetzung eines konkreten Maßnahmenpakets die Lebensbedin-gungen der Menschen vor Ort direkt verändern und verbessern soll. Langfristig gesehen vertei-digen wir den Nutzen der Umsetzung des NAP für die Einhaltung der in den Menschenrechts-verträgen festgelegten Verpflichtungen. T3 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere = State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers - 13 Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-576797 SN - 2509-6974 IS - 13 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Gruner, Friedemann A1 - Lessmann, Kai A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Pigou’s Advice and Sisyphus’ Warning BT - Carbon Pricing with Non-Permanent Carbon-Dioxide Removal T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere is becoming an important option to achieve net zero climate targets. This paper develops a welfare and public economics perspective on optimal policies for carbon removal and storage in non-permanent sinks like forests, soil, oceans, wood products or chemical products. We derive a new metric for the valuation of non-permanent carbon storage, the social cost of carbon removal (SCC-R), which embeds also the conventional social cost of carbon emissions. We show that the contribution of CDR is to create new carbon sinks that should be used to reduce transition costs, even if the stored carbon is released to the atmosphere eventually. Importantly, CDR does not raise the ambition of optimal temperature levels unless initial atmospheric carbon stocks are excessively high. For high initial atmospheric carbon stocks, CDR allows to reduce the optimal temperature below initial levels. Finally, we characterize three different policy regimes that ensure an optimal deployment of carbon removal: downstream carbon pricing, upstream carbon pricing, and carbon storage pricing. The policy regimes differ in their informational and institutional requirements regarding monitoring, liability and financing. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 62 KW - Carbon Dioxide Removal KW - Carbon Capture KW - Social Cost of Carbon KW - Climate Policy KW - Impermanence Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-575882 SN - 2628-653X IS - 62 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Rodriguez, Daniel A1 - Stier, Claudia T1 - Self-Efficacy and Entrepreneurial Performance of Start-Ups T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Self-efficacy reflects the self-belief that one can persistently perform difficult and novel tasks while coping with adversity. As such beliefs reflect how individuals behave, think, and act, they are key for successful entrepreneurial activities. While existing literature mainly analyzes the influence of the task-related construct of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, we take a different perspective and investigate, based on a representative sample of 1,405 German business founders, how the personality characteristic of generalized self-efficacy influences start-up performance as measured by a broad set of business outcomes up to 19 months after business creation. Outcomes include start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, as well as growth-oriented outcomes such as job creation and innovation. We find statistically significant and economically important positive effects of high scores of self-efficacy on start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, which become even stronger when focusing on the growth-oriented outcome of innovation. Furthermore, we observe that generalized self-efficacy is similarly distributed between female and male business founders, with effects being partly stronger for female entrepreneurs. Our findings are important for policy instruments that are meant to support firm growth by facilitating the design of more target-oriented offers for training, coaching, and entrepreneurial incubators. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 61 KW - entrepreneurship KW - firm performance KW - general self-efficacy KW - survival KW - job creation KW - innovation Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-572527 SN - 2628-653X IS - 61 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Nastansky, Andreas T1 - Gruppierung von Daten BT - Topologische Verfahren vs. Clusteranalyse T2 - Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge N2 - Dieser Beitrag beinhaltet einen Vergleich zwischen den Methoden der Topologischen Datenanalyse (TDA) und statistischen Clusterverfahren bei der Gruppierung von Daten. Es werden Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede bei der Bildung der Cluster und Zuordnung der statistischen Einheiten identifiziert. Hierzu werden zwei empirische Datensätze aus der Biologie und Medizin herangezogen. Zusammengefasst haben sich die Verfahren der TDA als ein praktikables Werkzeug bei der Gruppierung von Objekten erwiesen. Vor allem mit dem Mapper-Algorithmus konnten adäquate Cluster erkannt werden. Beim Iris Flower-Datensatz hat die TDA ähnliche Ergebnisse wie die Clusteranalyse erzielt. Der Heart Disease-Datensatz war schwieriger zu behandeln. Die genutzten clusteranalytischen Verfahren waren nicht geeignet, die beiden Gruppen von Patienten korrekt zu identifizieren. Im Vergleich zu den Standardverfahren der Clusteranalyse zeigte sich eine leichte Überlegenheit der topologischen Verfahren. N2 - This paper includes a comparison between Topological Data Analysis (TDA) methods and statistical clustering methods in grouping data. Similarities and differences in the formation of clusters and assignment of statistical units are identified. Two empirical data sets from biology and medicine are used for this purpose. In summary, the procedures of TDA have proven to be a viable tool in grouping objects. Especially with the mapper algorithm adequate clusters could be detected. For the Iris Flower-dataset, TDA produced similar results to cluster analysis. The Heart Disease-dataset was more difficult to deal with. The used cluster analytic techniques are not capable of correctly identifying the two groups of patients. Compared with the standard cluster analysis methods, the topological procedures showed a slight superiority. T3 - Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge - 55 KW - Clusteranalyse KW - Mapper KW - Persistente Homologie KW - Topologische Datenanalyse Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-572722 IS - 55 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kauffmann, Albrecht A1 - Nastansky, Andreas T1 - Regionale Mieten in Deutschland BT - Explorative Analyse der Mieten in der Wiedervermietung T2 - Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge N2 - Untersucht werden die von BulwienGesa erhobenen und aufbereiteten jahresdurchschnittlichen Mieten von Wohnungen und die Relation des Wiederverkaufswertes von Eigentumswohnungen zu den Wohnungsmieten (Preis-Miet-Relation) in 401 kreisfreien Städten und Landkreisen für die Jahre 2004–2017. Dabei zeigt sich bei den Wohnungsmieten eine Zunahme der regionalen Streuung im Zeitverlauf vor allem in der auf die Finanzkrise 2007–2009 folgenden Zeit. Bei der Preis-Miet-Relation nimmt die Streuung im Zeitverlauf ab 2010 ebenfalls zu. Im Durchschnitt der Regionen (Landkreise und kreisfreie Städte) steigen über den gesamten Zeitabschnitt die Mieten und in der überwiegenden Zahl der Regionen auch die Preis-Miet-Relation (allerdings erst ab 2010); sie entwickeln sich aber regional stark unterschiedlich. Dies führt auch zur Zunahme der Variationskoeffizienten, also der relativen Streuung der regionalen Mieten und – ab 2010 – auch der regionalen Preis-Miet-Relationen. Dies deutet auf eine Zunahme der regionalen Disparitäten in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland hin. Besondere Divergenzen zeigen sich zwischen den alten und den neuen Bundesländern, wie auch zwischen prosperierenden kreisfreien Städten und deren Umland und ökonomisch schwächeren Städten und Landkreisen. T3 - Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge - 54 KW - Immobilienpreise KW - Regionale Mieten KW - Wohnimmobilien Deutschland Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-572742 IS - 54 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Schrauth, Philipp T1 - Urban pollution BT - A global perspective T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We use worldwide satellite data to analyse how population size and density affect urban pollution. We find that density significantly increases pollution exposure. Looking only at urban areas, we find that population size affects exposure more than density. Moreover, the effect is driven mostly by population commuting to core cities rather than the core city population itself. We analyse heterogeneity by geography and income levels. By and large, the influence of population on pollution is greatest in Asia and middle-income countries. A counterfactual simulation shows that PM2.5 exposure would fall by up to 36% and NO2 exposure up to 53% if within countries population size were equalized across all cities. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 60 KW - population density KW - air pollution KW - gridded data Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-572049 SN - 2628-653X IS - 60 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Stier, Claudia T1 - The Influence of Start-up Motivation on Entrepreneurial Performance T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Predicting entrepreneurial development based on individual and business-related characteristics is a key objective of entrepreneurship research. In this context, we investigate whether the motives of becoming an entrepreneur influence the subsequent entrepreneurial development. In our analysis, we examine a broad range of business outcomes including survival and income, as well as job creation, expansion and innovation activities for up to 40 months after business formation. Using self-determination theory as conceptual background, we aggregate the start-up motives into a continuous motivational index. We show – based on a unique dataset of German start-ups from unemployment and non-unemployment – that the later business performance is better, the higher they score on this index. Effects are particularly strong for growth oriented outcomes like innovation and expansion activities. In a next step, we examine three underlying motivational categories that we term opportunity, career ambition, and necessity. We show that individuals driven by opportunity motives perform better in terms of innovation and business expansion activities, while career ambition is positively associated with survival, income, and the probability of hiring employees. All effects are robust to the inclusion of a large battery of covariates that are proven to be important determinants of entrepreneurial performance. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 59 KW - Entrepreneurship KW - Push and Pull Theories KW - Start-up Motivation KW - Survival KW - Job Creation KW - Firm Growth KW - Innovation Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-571152 SN - 2628-653X IS - 59 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Matthewes, Sönke Hendrik A1 - Ventura, Guglielmo T1 - On Track to Success? BT - Returns to Vocational Education Against Different Alternatives T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Many countries consider expanding vocational curricula in secondary education to boost skills and labour market outcomes among non-university-bound students. However, critics fear this could divert other students from more profitable academic education. We study labour market returns to vocational education in England, where until recently students chose between a vocational track, an academic track and quitting education at age 16. Identification is challenging because self-selection is strong and because students’ next-best alternatives are unknown. Against this back- drop, we leverage multiple instrumental variables to estimate margin-specific treatment effects, i.e., causal returns to vocational education for students at the margin with academic education and, separately, for students at the margin with quitting education. Identification comes from variation in distance to the nearest vocational provider conditional on distance to the nearest academic provider (and vice-versa), while controlling for granular student, school and neighbourhood characteristics. The analysis is based on population-wide administrative education data linked to tax records. We find that the vast majority of marginal vocational students are indifferent be- tween vocational and academic education. For them, vocational enrolment substantially decreases earnings at age 30. This earnings penalty grows with age and is due to wages, not employment. However, consistent with comparative advantage, the penalty is smaller for students with higher revealed preferences for the vocational track. For the few students at the margin with no further education, we find merely tentative evidence of increased employment and earnings from vocational enrolment. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 58 KW - vocational education KW - returns to education KW - multi-valued treatment KW - instrumental variables Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-567253 SN - 2628-653X IS - 58 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hunold, Matthias A1 - Petrishcheva, Vasilisa T1 - Foreclosure and Tunneling with Partial Vertical Ownership T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We demonstrate how the incentives of firms that partially own their suppliers or customers to foreclose rivals depend on how the partial owner can extract profits from the target (tunneling). Compared to a fully vertically integrated firm, a partial owner may obtain only a share of the target’s profit but influence the target’s strategy significantly. We show that the incentives for customer and input foreclosure can be higher, equal, or even lower with partial ownership than with a vertical merger, depending on how the protection of minority shareholders and transfer price regulations affect the scope for profit extraction. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 57 KW - Backward ownership KW - Entry deterrence KW - Foreclosure KW - Minority shareholdings KW - Partial ownership KW - Uniform pricing KW - Vertical integration Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-565601 SN - 2628-653X IS - 57 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Ziemann, Niklas T1 - You will receive your money next week! BT - Experimental evidence on the role of Future-Time Reference for intertemporal decision-making T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Against the background of the increasingly discussed “Linguistic Saving Hypothesis” (Chen, 2013), I studied whether the targeted use of a present tense (close tense) and a future tense (distant tense) within the same language have an impact on intertemporal decision-making. In a monetarily incentivized laboratory experiment in Germany, I implemented two different treatments on intertemporal choices. The treatments differed in the tense in which I referred to future rewards. My results show that individuals prefer to a greater extent rewards which are associated with a present tense (close tense). This result is in line with my prediction and the first empirical support for the Linguistic Saving Hypothesis within one language. However, this result holds exclusively for males. Females seem to be unaffected by the linguistic manipulation. I discuss my findings in the context of “gender-as-culture” as well as their potential policy-implications. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 56 KW - Experiment KW - Intertemporal Choice KW - Language KW - Linguistic Saving Hypothesis Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-563983 SN - 2628-653X IS - 56 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Block, Jörn A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Priem, Maximilian A1 - Stiel, Caroline T1 - Emergency-Aid for Self-employed in the Covid-19 Pandemic BT - A Flash in the Pan? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The self-employed faced strong income losses during the Covid-19 pandemic. Many governments introduced programs to financially support the self-employed during the pandemic, including Germany. The German Ministry for Economic Affairs announced a €50bn emergency-aid program in March 2020, offering one-off lump-sum payments of up to €15,000 to those facing substantial revenue declines. By reassuring the self- employed that the government ‘would not let them down’ during the crisis, the program had also the important aim of motivating the self-employed to get through the crisis. We investigate whether the program affected the confidence of the self-employed to survive the crisis using real-time online-survey data comprising more than 20,000 observations. We employ propensity score matching, making use of a rich set of variables that influence the subjective survival probability as main outcome measure. We observe that this program had significant effects, with the subjective survival probability of the self- employed being moderately increased. We reveal important effect heterogeneities with respect to education, industries, and speed of payment. Notably, positive effects only occur among those self-employed whose application was processed quickly. This suggests stress-induced waiting costs due to the uncertainty associated with the administrative processing and the overall pandemic situation. Our findings have policy implications for the design of support programs, while also contributing to the literature on the instruments and effects of entrepreneurship policy interventions in crisis situations. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 55 KW - self-employment KW - emergency-aid KW - treatment effects KW - Covid-19 KW - entrepreneurship policy KW - subjective survival probability Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562688 SN - 2628-653X IS - 55 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Bulutay, Muhammed A1 - Cornand, Camille A1 - Heinemann, Frank A1 - Zylbersztejn, Adam T1 - Measuring strategic-uncertainty attitudes T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Strategic uncertainty is the uncertainty that players face with respect to the purposeful behavior of other players in an interactive decision situation. Our paper develops a new method for measuring strategic-uncertainty attitudes and distinguishing them from risk and ambiguity attitudes. We vary the source of uncertainty (whether strategic or not) across conditions in a ceteris paribus manner. We elicit certainty equivalents of participating in two strategic 2x2 games (a stag-hunt and a market-entry game) as well as certainty equivalents of related lotteries that yield the same possible payoffs with exogenously given probabilities (risk) and lotteries with unknown probabilities (ambiguity). We provide a structural model of uncertainty attitudes that allows us to measure a preference for or an aversion against the source of uncertainty, as well as optimism or pessimism regarding the desired outcome. We document systematic attitudes towards strategic uncertainty that vary across contexts. Under strategic complementarity [substitutability], the majority of participants tend to be pessimistic [optimistic] regarding the desired outcome. However, preferences for the source of uncertainty are distributed around zero. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 54 KW - risk attitudes KW - ambiguity attitudes KW - strategic-uncertainty attitudes KW - stag-hunt game KW - market-entry game Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562340 SN - 2628-653X IS - 54 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Oshiro, Jun A1 - Satō, Yasuhiro T1 - Property tax competition BT - A quantitative assessment T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We develop a model of property taxation and characterize equilibria under three alternative taxa-tion regimes often used in the public finance literature: decentralized taxation, centralized taxation, and “rent seeking” regimes. We show that decentralized taxation results in inefficiently high tax rates, whereas centralized taxation yields a common optimal tax rate, and tax rates in the rent-seeking regime can be either inefficiently high or low. We quantify the effects of switching from the observed tax system to the three regimes for Japan and Germany. The decentralized or rent-seeking regime best describes the Japanese tax system, whereas the centralized regime does so for Germany. We also quantify the welfare effects of regime changes. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 52 KW - property taxes KW - tax competition KW - efficiency Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562228 SN - 2628-653X ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Friedrichsen, Jana T1 - How communication makes the difference between a cartel and tacit collusion BT - a machine learning approach T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely to use indirect messages when sanctioning institutions are present. This effect of sanctions on communication reinforces the direct cartel-deterring effect of sanctions as collusion is more difficult to reach and sustain without an explicit agreement. Indirect messages have no, or even a negative, effect on prices. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 53 KW - cartel KW - collusion KW - communication KW - machine learning KW - experiment Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562234 SN - 2628-653X ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Apelojg, Benjamin T1 - Prozessorientierte Didaktik T1 - Process-Oriented Didactics BT - Persönliche Gedanken zur Weiterentwicklung von Lehren und Lernen : für den Cowboy, der auf einem guten Weg ist! BT - Ideas for the Advancement of Teaching and Learning For the cowboy on the right path! N2 - n diesem Beitrag finden Sie ein von mir entwickeltes Konzept zum Lehren und Lernen in der Schule1. Ich nenne dieses Konzept prozessorientierte Didaktik. Ich habe die Hoffnung, gemeinsam mit Ihnen als Lehrer oder Lehramtsstudierende, aber auch mit Eltern, Wissenschaftlern, Experten für Bildung und Schülern, einen Beitrag zur Verbesserung unserer Schulpraxis zu leisten. Dass Schule sich bereits im Wandel befindet und wunderbar gelingen kann, sieht man beispielsweise an den Preisträgern des Deutschen Schulpreises. Leider sind diese Schulen immer noch in der Minderheit. Dieses Verhältnis umzukehren ist eine unserer größten Bildungsaufgaben für die nächsten Jahrzehnte. KW - Prozessorientierte Didaktik KW - Fehler machen KW - Lernwiderstände Y1 - 2015 UR - https://www.uni-potsdam.de/de/meprooek/index/prozessorientierte-didaktik-im-ueberblick ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Blanz, Alkis A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Heinemann, Maik A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Optimal carbon pricing with fluctuating energy prices — emission targeting vs. price targeting T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Prices of primary energy commodities display marked fluctuations over time. Market-based climate policy instruments (e.g., emissions pricing) create incentives to reduce energy consumption by increasing the user cost of fossil energy. This raises the question of whether climate policy should respond to fluctuations in fossil energy prices? We study this question within an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model calibrated on the German economy. Our results indicate that the welfare implications of dynamic emissions pricing crucially depend on how the revenues are used. When revenues are fully absorbed, a reduction in emissions prices stabilizes the economy in response to energy price shocks. However, when revenues are at least partially recycled, a stable emissions price improves overall welfare. This result is robust to different modeling assumptions. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 51 KW - energy prices KW - E-DSGE KW - climate policy KW - welfare Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-561049 SN - 2628-653X IS - 51 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Giotopoulos, Ioannis A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Tsakanikas, Aggelos T1 - A Lasting Crisis affects R&D decisions of smaller firms BT - the Greek experience T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We use the prolonged Greek crisis as a case study to understand how a lasting economic shock affects the innovation strategies of firms in economies with moderate innovation activities. Adopting the 3-stage CDM model, we explore the link between R&D, innovation, and productivity for different size groups of Greek manufacturing firms during the prolonged crisis. At the first stage, we find that the continuation of the crisis is harmful for the R&D engagement of smaller firms while it increased the willingness for R&D activities among the larger ones. At the second stage, among smaller firms the knowledge production remains unaffected by R&D investments, while among larger firms the R&D decision is positively correlated with the probability of producing innovation, albeit the relationship is weakened as the crisis continues. At the third stage, innovation output benefits only larger firms in terms of labor productivity, while the innovation-productivity nexus is insignificant for smaller firms during the lasting crisis. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 49 KW - Small firms KW - Large firms KW - R&D KW - Innovation KW - Productivity KW - Long-term Crisis Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-558442 SN - 2628-653X IS - 49 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Gohl, Niklas A1 - Schrauth, Philipp T1 - Ticket to Paradise? BT - The Effect of a Public Transport Subsidy on Air Quality T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - This paper provides novel evidence on the impact of public transport subsidies on air pollution. We obtain causal estimates by leveraging a unique policy intervention in Germany that temporarily reduced nationwide prices for regional public transport to a monthly flat rate price of 9 Euros. Us-ing DiD estimation strategies on air pollutant data, we show that this intervention causally reduced a benchmark air pollution index by more than six percent. Our results illustrate that public transport subsidies – especially in the context of spatially constrained cities – offer a viable alterna-tive for policymakers and city planers to improve air quality, which has been shown to crucially affect health outcomes. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 50 KW - air pollution KW - public transport KW - transport subsidies Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-558466 SN - 2628-653X IS - 50 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schrauth, Philipp T1 - The Causal Effect of Cycling Infrastructure on Traffic and Accidents BT - Evidence from Pop-up Bike Lanes in Berlin T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - This paper analyzes the effect of new bicycle lanes on traffic volume, congestion, and accidents. Crucially, the new bike lanes replace existing car lanes thereby reducing available space for motorized traffic. In order to obtain causal estimates, I exploit the quasi-random timing and location of the newly built cycle lanes. Using an event study design, a two-way fixed effects model and the synthetic control group method on geo-coded data, I show that the construction of pop-up bike lanes significantly reduced average car speed by 8 to 12 percentage points (p.p.) and up to 16 p.p. in peak traffic hours. In contrast, the results for car volume are modest, while the data does not allow for a conclusive judgment of accidents. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 48 KW - congestion KW - urban KW - traffic KW - environment KW - cycling KW - health KW - COVID-19 KW - accidents Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-553359 SN - 2628-653X IS - 48 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Protze, Valentin T1 - Zur völkerstrafrechtlichen Bewertung rein störender Cyberoperationen T2 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere T2 - State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers N2 - This paper addresses the classification under international criminal law of purely disruptive, i.e. non-destructive, cyber operations. After the necessary clarification of terms, the individual questions of the applicability of international criminal law are discussed and it is examined which elements of crime can be realized by such actions. N2 - Dieses Papier thematisiert die völkerstrafrechtliche Einordnung rein störender, also nicht zerstörender Cyberoperationen. Nach der erforderlichen Begriffsklärung werden die einzelnen Fragen der Anwendbarkeit des Völkerstrafrechts erörtert und geprüft, welche Tatbestände durch solche Aktionen verwirklicht werden können. T3 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere = State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers - 12 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-543318 SN - 2509-6974 IS - 12 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Obst, Cosima T1 - Job Satisfaction and Training Investments T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Job satisfaction has been found to impact behavioral choices at the workplace. Since levels of satisfaction are not guaranteed to remain high, understanding the consequences of job dissatisfaction is essential. Hence, I analyze the relationship between a worker’s job satisfaction and her training investments. Based on my theoretical model, I expect a U-shaped relationship if dissatisfied workers attempt to improve the situation or plan to quit. In contrast, there is an overall positive relationship if dissatisfied workers neglect their duties. Using logit regressions with the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey I find tentative evidence that there is on average an overall positive relationship with a 1 standard deviation increase in job satisfaction being associated with a 1.5% increased likelihood of participating in training. A closer inspection of the reasons for training as well as quit intentions reveals some hints of a U-shaped relationship. My results highlight the importance of considering the source of dissatisfaction as there are heterogeneous effects along different job satisfaction facets. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 47 KW - Human Capital Investment KW - Work-related Training KW - Job Satisfaction Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549124 SN - 2628-653X IS - 47 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Seebauer, Johannes T1 - Pandemic Depression: COVID-19 and the Mental Health of the Self-Employed T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed people’s mental health. Using representative longitudinal survey data from Germany, we reveal differential effects by gender: whereas self-employed women experienced a substantial deterioration in their mental health, self-employed men displayed no significant changes up to early 2021. Financial losses are important in explaining these differences. In addition, we find larger mental health responses among self-employed women who were directly affected by government-imposed restrictions and bore an increased childcare burden due to school and daycare closures. We also find that self-employed individuals who are more resilient coped better with the crisis. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 46 KW - self-employment KW - COVID-19 KW - mental health KW - gender KW - representative longitudinal survey data KW - PHQ-4 score KW - resilience Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-548999 SN - 2628-653X IS - 46 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Diluiso, Francesca T1 - How to Redistribute the Revenues from Climate Policy? BT - A Dynamic Perspective with Financially Constrained Households T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In light of climate change mitigation efforts, revenues from climate policies are growing, with no consensus yet on how they should be used. Potential efficiency gains from reducing distortionary taxes and the distributional implications of different revenue recycling schemes are currently debated. To account for households heterogeneity and dynamic trade-offs, we study the macroeconomic and welfare performance of different revenue recycling schemes using an Environmental Two-Agent New-Keynesian model, calibrated on the German economy. We find that, in the long run, welfare gains are higher when revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on capital, but this comes at the cost of higher inequality: while all households prefer labor income tax reductions to lump-sum transfers, only financially unconstrained households are better off when reducing taxes on capital income. Interestingly, we find that over the transition period relevant to meet short-medium run climate targets, labor income tax cuts are the most efficient and equitable instrument. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 45 KW - double dividend KW - E-DSGE KW - environmental tax reform KW - non-Ricardian households KW - revenue recycling Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-548960 SN - 2628-653X IS - 45 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. A1 - Pfeifer, Harald A1 - Uhlendorff, Arne A1 - Wehner, Caroline T1 - Managers’ Risk Preferences and Firm Training Investments T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We provide the first estimates of the impact of managers’ risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. Our conceptual framework links managers’ risk preferences to firms’ training decisions through the bonuses they expect to receive. Risk-averse managers are expected to select workers with low turnover risk and invest in specific rather than general training. Empirical evidence supporting these predictions is provided using a novel vignette study embedded in a nationally representative survey of firm managers. Risk-tolerant and risk-averse decision makers have significantly different training preferences. Risk aversion results in increased sensitivity to turnover risk. Managers who are risk-averse offer significantly less general training and, in some cases, are more reluctant to train workers with a history of job mobility. All managers, irrespective of their risk preferences, are sensitive to the investment risk associated with training, avoiding training that is more costly or targets those with less occupational expertise or nearing retirement. This suggests the risks of training are primarily due to the risk that trained workers will leave the firm (turnover risk) rather than the risk that the benefits of training do not outweigh the costs (investment risk). T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 44 KW - Manager Decisions KW - Employee Training KW - Risk Attitudes KW - Human Capital Investments Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-538439 SN - 2628-653X IS - 44 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Lessmann, Kai T1 - Optimal Pricing for Carbon Dioxide Removal Under Inter-Regional Leakage T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best subsidies for CDR when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage, terms-of-trade and fossil resource rent dynamics. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, terms-of-trade effects exacerbate this wedge for net resource exporters, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, the optimal removal subsidy may fall below the carbon tax for resource-poor countries when marginal environmental damages are small. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 43 KW - carbon pricing KW - trade KW - unilateral climate policy KW - terms-of-trade effects KW - removal subsidies Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-538080 SN - 2628-653X IS - 43 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Künn, Steffen A1 - Mahlstedt, Robert T1 - The Intended and Unintended Effects of Promoting Labor Market Mobility T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Subsidizing the geographical mobility of unemployed workers may improve welfare by relaxing their financial constraints and allowing them to find jobs in more prosperous regions. We exploit regional variation in the promotion of mobility programs along administrative borders of German employment agency districts to investigate the causal effect of offering such financial incentives on the job search behavior and labor market integration of unemployed workers. We show that promoting mobility – as intended – causes job seekers to increase their search radius, apply for and accept distant jobs. At the same time, local job search is reduced with adverse consequences for reemployment and earnings. These unintended negative effects are provoked by spatial search frictions. Overall, the unconditional provision of mobility programs harms the welfare of unemployed job seekers. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 42 KW - Job Search KW - Active Labor Market Policy KW - Labor Market Mobility KW - Unintended Consequence KW - Search Frictions Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-535229 SN - 2628-653X ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bachelet, Marion A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Koch, Nicolas T1 - What if working from home will stick? BT - Distributional and climate impacts for Germany T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic created the largest experiment in working from home. We study how persistent telework may change energy and transport consumption and costs in Germany to assess the distributional and environmental implications when working from home will stick. Based on data from the German Microcensus and available classifications of working-from-home feasibility for different occupations, we calculate the change in energy consumption and travel to work when 15% of employees work full time from home. Our findings suggest that telework translates into an annual increase in heating energy expenditure of 110 euros per worker and a decrease in transport expenditure of 840 euros per worker. All income groups would gain from telework but high-income workers gain twice as much as low-income workers. The value of time saving is between 1.3 and 6 times greater than the savings from reduced travel costs and almost 9 times higher for high-income workers than low-income workers. The direct effects on CO₂ emissions due to reduced car commuting amount to 4.5 millions tons of CO₂, representing around 3 percent of carbon emissions in the transport sector. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 41 KW - commuting KW - home office KW - COVID-19 KW - energy expenditure KW - carbon emissions Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-532384 SN - 2628-653X IS - 41 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Wittbrodt, Linda T1 - Did the Minimum Wage Reduce the Gender Wage Gap in Germany? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In many countries, women are over-represented among low-wage employees, which is why a wage floor could benefit them particularly. Following this notion, we analyse the impact of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015 on the gender wage gap. Germany poses an interesting case study in this context, since it has a rather high gender wage gap and set the minimum wage at a relatively high level, affecting more than four million employees. Based on individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey, containing information for over one million employees working in 60,000 firms, we use a difference-in- difference framework that exploits regional differences in the bite of the minimum wage. We find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on the regional gender wage gap. Between 2014 and 2018, the gap at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution was reduced by 4.6 percentage points (or 32%) in regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage compared to less affected regions. For the gap at the 25th percentile, the effect still amounted to -18%, while for the mean it was smaller (-11%) and not particularly robust. We thus find that the minimum wage can indeed reduce gender wage disparities. While the effect is highest for the low-paid, it also reaches up into higher parts of the wage distribution. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 40 KW - Minimum Wage KW - Gender Wage Gap KW - Regional Bite Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-530464 SN - 2628-653X IS - 40 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Gohl, Niklas T1 - Gentrification and Affordable Housing Policies T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We use a quantitative spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the distributional and welfare impacts of a recent temporary rent control policy in Berlin, Germany. We calibrate the model to key features of Berlin’s housing market, in particular the recent gentrification of inner city locations. As expected, gentrification benefits rich homeowners, while poor renter households lose. Our counterfactual analysis mimicks the rent control policy. We find that this policy reduces welfare for rich and poor households and in fact, the percentage change in welfare is largest for the poorest households. We also study alternative affordable housing policies such as subsidies and re-zoning policies, which are better suited to address the adverse consequences of gentrification. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 39 KW - rent control KW - housing market KW - gentrification Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-529300 SN - 2628-653X IS - 39 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Späth, Maximilian T1 - It’s me again… Ask Avoidance and the Dynamics of Charitable Giving T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Charities typically ask potential donors repeatedly for a donation. These repeated requests might trigger avoidance behavior. Considering that, this paper analyzes the impact of offering an ask avoidance option on charitable giving. In a proposed utility framework, the avoidance option decreases the social pressure to donate. At the same time, it induces feelings of gratitude toward the fundraiser, which may lead to a reciprocal increase in donations. The results of a lab experiment designed to disentangle the two channels show no negative impact of the option to avoid repeated asking on donations. Instead, the full model indicates a positive impact of the reciprocity channel. This finding suggests that it might be beneficial for charities to introduce an ask avoidance option during high-frequency fundraising campaigns. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 38 KW - Charitable giving KW - Repeated request KW - Ask avoidance KW - Experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-520991 SN - 2628-653X IS - 38 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Mena, Wogene Berhanu T1 - Civilizational hexagon as a pathway to conflict management BT - examining its application in Sub-Saharan Africa in the post-cold war era T2 - State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers T2 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere N2 - This paper examines the attempts of implement-ing components of the concept called Civiliza-tional Hexagon as a pathway to civilizing conflict in the Sub-Saharan Africa in the post-Cold War period. Despite significant decline in the violent conflict and substantial progress socio-economic aspects in the period, most states in the region have been facing challenges in their way to civilize conflict related to absence of inclusive political system, weak state unable to monopolize the use of violence in its territory, and social injustice. On the other hand, states like Botswana and Mauritius managed to civilize conflict through significant improvement in democratic consolidation. Besides their relative success in implementing six elements, these states enabled to integrate traditional institutions with modern state apparatus that helped them to fill the gap created as result of exogenous state formation process and the resulting unfinished nation-building project. Additionally, traditional institutions contributed to managing diversity. N2 - Dieses Papier untersucht die Versuche, Komponenten des Konzepts „zivilisatorisches Hexagon“ als einen Weg zur Zivilisierung von Konlikten in Afrika südlich der Sahara nach 1990 umzusetzen. Trotz eines signifikanten Rückgangs der gewaltsamen Konflikte und erheblicher Fortschritte in sozio-ökonomischen Aspekten stehen die meisten Staaten in der Region vor Herausforderungen, die mit dem Fehlen eines inklusiven politischen Systems, einem schwachen Staat, der nicht in der Lage ist, das Gewaltmonopol in seinem Territorium auszuüben, und sozialer Ungerechtigkeit zusammenhängen. Gleichwohl sind Staaten wie Botswana und Mauritius in der Lage, Konflikte durch signifikante Verbesserung der demokratischen Konsolidierung zu zivilisieren. Neben ihrem relativen Erfolg bei der Umsetzung der sechs Elemente haben diese Staaten es geschafft, traditionelle Institutionen in den modernen Staatsapparat zu integrieren, was ihnen half, die Lücke zu füllen, die durch den exogenen Staatsbildungsprozess und das daraus resultierende unvollendete Projekt der Nationenbildung entstanden war. Zusätzlich halfen die traditionellen Institutionen dabei, Vielfalt zu sichern. T3 - Staat, Recht und Politik – Forschungs- und Diskussionspapiere = State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers - 11 KW - conflict management KW - Sub-Saharan Africa Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516695 SN - 2509-6974 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Schiersch, Alexander A1 - Stiel, Caroline T1 - The productivity puzzle in business services T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 37 KW - business services KW - labor productivity KW - productivity slowdown Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514536 SN - 2628-653X IS - 37 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hinz, Julian A1 - Stammann, Amrei A1 - Wanner, Joschka T1 - State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 36 KW - dynamic binary choice KW - extensive margin KW - high-dimensional fixed effects KW - incidental parameter bias correction KW - trade policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511919 SN - 2628-653X ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Siedler, Thomas A1 - Ziebarth, Nicolas R. T1 - The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Starting in 2009, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in the state. The policy’s objective was to encourage them to develop a long-term habit of exercising. In 2018, we carried out a large register-based survey among several cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states. Our difference-in-differences estimations show that, even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 34 KW - physical activity KW - voucher KW - primary school KW - obesity KW - habit formation KW - objective health measures KW - school health examinations KW - windfall gains KW - crowding out KW - taxpayer subsidies Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508978 SN - 2628-653X IS - 34 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Felfe, Christina A1 - Kocher, Martin A1 - Rainer, Helmut A1 - Saurer, Judith A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - More Opportunity, More Cooperation? BT - The Behavioral Effects of Birthright Citizenship on Immigrant Youth T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with socioeconomic, ethnic, or cultural differences, may limit the scope of cooperation between individuals. A central question, then, is how to overcome such obstacles to cooperation. We study this question in the context of Germany, by asking whether the propensity of immigrant youth to cooperate with native peers was affected by a major integration reform: the introduction of birthright citizenship. Our unique setup exploits data from a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment in a quasi-experimental evaluation framework. We find that the policy caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. We show that the increase in out-group cooperation among immigrant boys is an outcome of more trust rather than a reflection of stronger other- regarding preferences towards natives. In exploring factors that may explain these behavioral effects, we present evidence that the policy also led to a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. Our results highlight that, through integration interventions, governments can modify prosocial behavior in a way that generates higher levels of efficiency in the interaction between social groups. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 32 Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508643 SN - 2628-653X IS - 32 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Brenner, Andri T1 - The Social Power of Spillover Effects BT - Educating Against Environmental Externalities T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Economists are worried that the lack of property rights to natural capital goods jeopardizes the sustainability of the economic growth miracle that has existed since industrialization. This article questions their position. A vertical innovation model with a portfolio of technologies for abatement, adaptation, and general (Harrod-neutral) technology reveals that environmental damage spillovers have a comparable effect on research profits as technology spillovers so that the social costs of depleting public natural capital are internalized. As long as there is free access to information and technology, growth is sustainable and the allocation of research efforts among alternative technologies is socially optimal. While there still is a need to address externalities from monopolistic research markets, no environmental policy is necessary. These results suggest that environmental externalities may originate in restricted access to information and technology, demonstrating that (i) information has a similar effect as an environmental tax and (ii) knowledge and technology transfers have an impact comparable to that of subsidies for research in green technology. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 35 KW - endogenous growth KW - horizontal innovation KW - sustainability Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511098 SN - 2628-653X IS - 35 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Eydam, Ulrich T1 - The Distributional Implications of Climate Policies Under Uncertainty T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Promoting the decarbonization of economic activity through climate policies raises many questions. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is important to understand how these policies perform under uncertainty, how they affect short-run dynamics and to what extent they have distributional effects. In addition, uncertainties directly associated with climate policies, such as uncertainty about the carbon budget or emission intensities, become relevant aspects. We study the implications of emission reduction schemes within a Two-Agent New-Keynesian (TANK) model. This quantitative exercise, based on data for the German economy, provides various insights. In the light of frictions and fluctuations, compared to other instruments, a carbon price (i.e. tax) is associated with lower volatility in output and consumption. In terms of aggregate welfare, price instruments are found to be preferable. Conditional on the distribution of revenues from climate policies, quantity instruments can exert regressive effects, posing a larger economic loss on wealth-poor households, whereas price instruments are moderately progressive. Finally, we find that unexpected changes in climate policies can induce substantial aggregate adjustments. With uncertainty about the carbon budget, the costs of adjustment are larger under quantity instruments. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 33 KW - Macroeconomic Dynamics KW - Environmental Policy KW - Inequality KW - Policy Design Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508950 SN - 2628-653X IS - 33 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Schikora, Felicitas T1 - Hate is too great a burden to bear BT - Hate crimes and the mental health of refugees T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Against a background of increasing violence against non-natives, we estimate the effect of hate crime on refugees’ mental health in Germany. For this purpose, we combine two datasets: administrative records on xenophobic crime against refugee shelters by the Federal Criminal Office and the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees. We apply a regression discontinuity in time design to estimate the effect of interest. Our results indicate that hate crime has a substantial negative effect on several mental health indicators, including the Mental Component Summary score and the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 score. The effects are stronger for refugees with closer geographic proximity to the focal hate crime and refugees with low country-specific human capital. While the estimated effect is only transitory, we argue that negative mental health shocks during the critical period after arrival have important long-term consequences. Keywords: Mental health, hate crime, migration, refugees, human capital. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 31 KW - mental health KW - hate crime KW - migration KW - refugees KW - human capital Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-507972 SN - 2628-653X IS - 31 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - Design and Effectiveness of Start-Up Subsidies BT - Evidence from a Policy Reform in Germany T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While a growing body of literature finds positive impacts of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) on labor market outcomes of participants, little is known about how the design of these programs shapes their effectiveness and hence how to improve policy. As experimental variation in program design is unavailable, we exploit the 2011 reform of the current German SUS program for the unemployed which strengthened case-workers’ discretionary power, increased entry requirements and reduced monetary support. We estimate the impact of the reform on the program’s effectiveness using samples of participants and non-participants from before and after the reform. To control for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity as well as differential selection patterns based on observable characteristics over time, we combine Difference-in-Differences with inverse probability weighting using covariate balancing propensity scores. Holding participants’ observed characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions constant, the results suggest that the reform was successful in raising employment effects on average. As these findings may be contaminated by changes in selection patterns based on unobserved characteristics, we assess our results using simulation-based sensitivity analyses and find that our estimates are highly robust to changes in unobserved characteristics. Hence, the reform most likely had a positive impact on the effectiveness of the program, suggesting that increasing entry requirements and reducing support in-creased the program’s impacts while reducing the cost per participant. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 30 KW - Start-Up Subsidies KW - Institutions KW - Policy Reform KW - Difference-in-Differences Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-500056 SN - 2628-653X IS - 30 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Šedová, Barbora A1 - Čizmaziová, Lucia A1 - Cook, Athene T1 - A meta-analysis of climate migration literature T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 29 KW - migration KW - climate change KW - meta-analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827 SN - 2628-653X IS - 29 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hänsel, Martin C. A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity BT - A welfare-theoretic approach with application to German household data T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first- best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households’ energy efficiency. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 28 KW - carbon price KW - horizontal equity KW - redistribution KW - renewable energy subsidies KW - climate policy KW - just transition Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498128 SN - 2628-653X IS - 28 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Seebauer, Johannes T1 - COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic, and of the government-mandated measures to contain its spread, affect the self-employed – particularly women – in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are 35% more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. Conversely, we do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, i.e. the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 27 KW - self-employed KW - COVID-19 KW - income KW - gender KW - representative real-time survey data KW - decomposition methods Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498108 SN - 2628-653X IS - 27 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Ludolph, Lars A1 - Šedová, Barbora T1 - Global food prices, local weather and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 26 KW - labour migration KW - food prices KW - climate KW - Africa Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-494946 SN - 2628-653X IS - 26 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Amann, Erwin A1 - Rzepka, Sylvi T1 - The Effect of Goal-Setting Prompts in a Blended Learning Environment BT - Evidence from a Field Experiment T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate how inviting students to set task-based goals affects usage of an online learning platform and course performance. We design and implement a randomized field experiment in a large mandatory economics course with blended learning elements. The low-cost treatment induces students to use the online learning system more often, more intensively, and to begin earlier with exam preparation. Treated students perform better in the course than the control group: they are 18.8% (0.20 SD) more likely to pass the exam and earn 6.7% (0.19 SD) more points on the exam. There is no evidence that treated students spend significantly more time, rather they tend to shift to more productive learning methods. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that higher treatment effects are associated with higher levels of behavioral bias but also with poor early course behavior. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 25 KW - natural field experiment KW - blended learning KW - behavioral economics KW - goal-setting Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-493476 SN - 2628-653X N1 - The trial is registered in the AEA RCT registry, RCT ID AEARCTR-28790 (https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.2928-1.0). IS - 25 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Friedrichsen, Jana T1 - The Leniency Rule Revisited: Experiments on Cartel Formation with Open Communication T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The experimental literature on antitrust enforcement provides robust evidence that communication plays an important role for the formation and stability of cartels. We extend these studies through a design that distinguishes between innocuous communication and communication about a cartel, sanctioning only the latter. To this aim, we introduce a participant in the role of the competition authority, who is properly incentivized to judge communication content and price setting behavior of the firms. Using this novel design, we revisit the question whether a leniency rule successfully destabilizes cartels. In contrast to existing experimental studies, we find that a leniency rule does not affect cartelization. We discuss potential explanations for this contrasting result. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 24 KW - cartel KW - judgment of communication KW - corporate leniency program KW - price competition KW - experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-491696 SN - 2628-653X N1 - This project, including the design and hypotheses, was preregistered at OSF before data collection had started (osf.io/ubhz8). IS - 24 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Apelojg, Benjamin A1 - Bosse, Stefanie A1 - Geschke, Doreen A1 - Hausner, Christian A1 - Jennek, Julia A1 - Liebner, Saskia A1 - Lipka, Marlies A1 - Marx, Alexandra A1 - Plötner, Kathleen A1 - Reimann, Christina A1 - Sievert, Florian A1 - Spörer, Nadine A1 - Teke, Gülay A1 - Völkner, Katrin A1 - Wabnitz, Juliane A1 - Waschke, Lene A1 - Zielke, Sonja A1 - Zrenner, Laura ED - Spörer, Nadine ED - Völkner, Katrin T1 - Rahmenkonzept der Universitätsschule Potsdam N2 - Das Rahmenkonzept der Universitätsschule Potsdam beschreibt die Wertegrundlage und das pädagogisch-didaktische sowie das wissenschaftliche Fundament einer zu gründenden Universitätsschule Potsdam. Wie andere Universitätsschulen soll sich auch diese Schule durch eine enge und institutionalisierte Beziehung zwischen Schule und Universität auszeichnen, die den ständigen Wissenstransfer zwischen Schulpraxis, Wissenschaft, Lehrkräftebildung und Schulverwaltung unterstützt. Das Rahmenkonzept legt die Grundlagen für eine inklusive Schule, deren Schüler:innen einen Querschnitt der Gesellschaft abbilden, und die in ungleichheitssensiblen Bildungsangeboten alle Bildungsabschlüsse des Landes Brandenburg anbietet. Die Universitätsschule soll den starken Segregationsprozessen in Potsdam entgegenwirken. Im Leitbild werden die Grundwerte (Nachhaltigkeit, Inklusion und Bildungsgerechtigkeit, Menschenrechte und Demokratie, Gemeinschaft, Ganzheitlichkeit) und die Bildungsziele (Transferfähigkeit, kritisch-reflexives Denken und lebensbegleitendes Lernen, Diversitätsbewusstsein und Transkulturalität, Selbstkompetenz und Beziehungskompetenz, Kulturtechniken und digitale Kompetenz) der Universitätsschule dargestellt. Das Pädagogische Konzept veranschaulicht, wie Werte und Bildungsziele in den Bereichen Schulform, Schulkultur, Lernkultur sowie Lernorte und Lernumgebung ausgestaltet werden können. Schließlich wird die Universitätsschule als lernende und lehrende Institution beschrieben, die ein Ort des Transfers von Bildungsinnovationen ist. Dafür soll eine Transferwerkstatt in der Schule verankert werden, die den Wissensaustausch der schulrelevanten Akteur:innen unterstützt und gestaltet. KW - Universitätsschule KW - Bildungsgerechtigkeit KW - Forschung-Praxis-Kooperation KW - Wissenstransfer KW - Lehrkräftebildung Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-491380 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - McLachlan, Campbell A T1 - Populism, the Pandemic & Prospects for International Law T2 - KFG Working Paper Series N2 - Populism has fatally weakened the world’s ability to respond to COVID-19, by undermining the capacity of the structures and mechanisms of international law to address the pandemic. The pandemic has exposed as a fallacy a key tenet of populism – to protect the ‘people’ of a nation from external forces, including international law. In fact international law, through the principle of self-determination, enshrines the ability of peoples to determine their own political organization. But this does not preclude agreement at the international level on matters of common interest to humanity as a whole that require community action. The prevention of infectious disease is just such a case, which states have long agreed could not remain solely the preserve of national polities, but requires a common international response. This paper, placing the current crisis in light of the development of international health law, critically examines the response of key populist governments to COVID-19 in order to address the larger issue of the implications of populism for the fate of international law. T3 - KFG Working Paper Series - 45 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-483479 IS - 45 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. A1 - Obst, Cosima A1 - Uhlendorff, Arne T1 - Risk Preferences and Training Investments T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable – and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes – than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 23 KW - Human Capital Investment KW - Work-related Training KW - Risk Preferences Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-480927 SN - 2628-653X IS - 23 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - Entropy Balancing for Continuous Treatments T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Interest in evaluating the effects of continuous treatments has been on the rise recently. To facilitate the estimation of causal effects in this setting, the present paper introduces entropy balancing for continuous treatments (EBCT) by extending the original entropy balancing methodology of Hainmüller (2012). In order to estimate balancing weights, the proposed approach solves a globally convex constrained optimization problem, allowing for much more computationally efficient implementation compared to other available methods. EBCT weights reliably eradicate Pearson correlations between covariates and the continuous treatment variable. This is the case even when other methods based on the generalized propensity score tend to yield insufficient balance due to strong selection into different treatment intensities. Moreover, the optimization procedure is more successful in avoiding extreme weights attached to a single unit. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations show that treatment effect estimates using EBCT display similar or lower bias and uniformly lower root mean squared error. These properties make EBCT an attractive method for the evaluation of continuous treatments. Software implementation is available for Stata and R. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 21 KW - Balancing weights KW - Continuous Treatment KW - Monte-Carlo simulation KW - Observational studies Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-478950 SN - 2628-653X IS - 21 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Mahlstedt, Robert A1 - van den Berg, Gerard J. A1 - Vikström, Johan T1 - Side Effects of Labor Market Policies T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Labor market policy tools such as training and sanctions are commonly used to help bring workers back to work. By analogy to medical treatments, the individual exposure to these tools may have side effects. We study effects on health using individual-level population registers on labor market events outcomes, drug prescriptions and sickness absence, comparing outcomes before and after exposure to training and sanctions. We find that training improves cardiovascular and mental health and lowers sickness absence. The results suggest that this is not due to improved employment prospects but rather to instantaneous features of participation such as, perhaps, the adoption of a more rigorous daily routine. Unemployment benefits sanctions cause a short-run deterioration of mental health, possibly due higher stress levels, but this tapers out quickly. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 22 KW - unemployment KW - health KW - sickness KW - prescriptions KW - mental health KW - drugs KW - training KW - depression KW - cardiovascular disease KW - sanctions Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-478839 SN - 2628-653X IS - 22 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Wiener, Antje T1 - Norm(ative) Change in International Relations BT - A Conceptual Framework T2 - KFG Working Paper Series N2 - Current contestations of the liberal international order stand in notable contrast with the earlier rise of international law during the post-cold war period. As Krieger and Liese argue, this situation calls for assessment of the type of change that is currently observed, i.e. norm change (Wandel) or a more fundamental transformation of international law – a metamorphosis (Verwandlung)? To address this question, this paper details the bi-focal approach to norms in order to reflect and take account of the complex interrelation between fact-based and value-based conceptions of norms. The paper is organised in three sections. The first section presents three axioms underlying the conceptual framework to study norm(ative) change which are visualised by a triangular operation to analyse this change in relation with practices and norms. The second section recalls three key interests that have guided IR norms research after the return to norms in the late 1980s. They include, first, allocating change in and through practice, second, identifying behavioural change with reference to norm- following, and third, identifying norm(ative) change with reference to discursive practice. The third section presents the two analytical tools of the conceptual frame, namely, the norm-typology and the cycle-grid model. It also indicates how to apply these tools with reference to illustrative case scenarios. The conclusion recalls the key elements of the conceptual framework for research on norm(ative) change in international relations in light of the challenge of establishing sustainable normativity in the global order. T3 - KFG Working Paper Series - 44 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-476076 IS - 44 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Jorgensen, Malcolm T1 - The United States and the International Law of Global Security T2 - KFG Working Paper Series N2 - For the United States the ‘international law of global security’ is, in a unique sense, synonymous with the entire project of constructing global legal order. Uniquely preponderant power enjoyed since the end of the Second World War has allowed US preferences to manifest not merely in specific rules and regimes, but in purposive development of the entire structure of global legal order to favour American security interests. Perceptions of a recent decline in this order now find expression in advocacy for a ‘liberal’ or ‘rules-based’ international order, as the claimed foundation for global prosperity and security. This working paper seeks to map out the parameters of US contributions to the global security order by uncovering the strategic and political foundations of its engagement with the international law of global security. The paper begins by reflecting on competing US conceptions of the relationship between national security and global order as they evolved across the twentieth century. The focus then turns to three significant trends defining the contemporary field. First are US attitudes toward multilateral institutions and global security, and the ongoing contest between beliefs that they are mutually reinforcing versus beliefs that US security and global institutions sit in zero-sum opposition. Second is the impact of the generational ‘War on Terror’, which has yielded more permissive interpretation and development of laws governing the global use of violence. The final trend is that towards competitive geopolitical interests restructuring international law, which are evident across diverse areas ranging from global economics, to cybersecurity, to the fragmentation of global order into spheres of influence. Looking ahead, a confluence of rising geopolitical competitors with divergent legal conceptions, and conflicted domestic support for the legitimacy and desirability of US global leadership, emerge as leading forces already reshaping the global security order. T3 - KFG Working Paper Series - 43 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-476030 IS - 43 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bäumler, Jelena T1 - The WTO’s Crisis BT - Between a Rock and a Hard Place T2 - KFG Working Paper Series N2 - The perception of the WTO is currently one of an organisation in crisis. Yet, appraisal varies regarding its extent and seriousness: Is it merely a rough time or are we standing on the edge of destruction? The article will trace developments inside as well as outside the WTO in order to assess the magnitude of the crisis. It will be argued that while certain developments inside the organisation, when seen in accumulation would already warrant serious attention, only together with developments taking place outside of the WTO, the two strands of developments unfold their full potential for the crisis. The overall situation renders the WTO in a difficult position, as it is currently unable to adapt to these challenges, while keeping calm and carrying on might similarly further the crisis. While States might improve and further develop their trade relations in bi- and plurilateral agreements, it is only the WTO that reflects and stands for the multilateral post (cold) war order. T3 - KFG Working Paper Series - 42 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-476017 IS - 42 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Gulati, Rishi T1 - Judicial Independence at International Courts and Tribunals BT - Lessons Drawn From the Experiences of the International Court of Justice and the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organisation T2 - KFG Working Paper Series N2 - The guarantee of judicial independence is undoubtedly one of the most important institutional design features of international courts and tribunals. An independence deficit can adversely impact a court’s authority, create a crisis of legitimacy, and undermine the very effectiveness of an international court or tribunal. It can hardly be denied that for an international court to be considered legitimate, a basic degree of independence is a must. An independent judiciary is a precondition to the fair and just resolution of legal disputes. In the context of interstate dispute settlement where the jurisdiction of courts is based on the principle of consent, in the absence of a basic degree of judicial independence, states may not be willing to submit to the jurisdiction of international courts. Comparing and contrasting the International Court of Justice and the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organisation, I assess whether those international judicial mechanisms possess the basic degree of independence required for a court to be able to maintain its credibility so that it can continue to perform its core function of adjudicating interstate disputes. With both those interstate adjudicative bodies constituting the two leading international courts in terms of participation and the sheer number of cases decided, much may be learned from comparing them. I argue there is a case for bolstering the independence of the ICJ; and without immediate reforms to the Appellate Body’s institutional design, its recent demise may become permanent. I conclude that if a basic degree of judicial independence cannot be guaranteed, it is preferable to let a court vanish for a while than to maintain a significantly deficient one. T3 - KFG Working Paper Series - 41 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-475997 IS - 41 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Barkholdt, Janina A1 - Reiners, Nina T1 - Pronouncements of Expert Treaty Bodies BT - From ‘Black Boxes’ to ‘Key Catalysts’ in International Law? T2 - KFG Working Paper Series N2 - While some pronouncements of expert treaty bodies have been considered ‘key catalysts’ for the development of international human rights law, others are only selectively referred to in legal practice. This article argues that the varying normative impact is due to the informal character of pronouncements. In the absence of treaty provisions specifying their legal effect, practitioners tend to rely on different factors and arguments when either drawing on or rejecting certain pronouncements. Scholars in turn face difficulties when trying to identify explanatory patterns within this diverging practice as the informal character confronts both international lawyers and international relations scholars with their respective methodological ‘blind spots’. In light of these intradisciplinary challenges, this article explores the extent as to which an interdisciplinary approach helps to assess the reasons for the varying impact of pronouncements. After analysing the factors determining their legal significance on the basis of State practice and the academic debate, this article identifies the drafting process as a factor which promises to be particularly insightful when explored from an interdisciplinary perspective and sketches out a framework for future research. T3 - KFG Working Paper Series - 40 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-475886 IS - 40 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Güth, Werner A1 - Nithammer, Juri A1 - Orland, Andreas T1 - Inefficient Cooperation under Stochastic and Strategic Uncertainty T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Stochastic uncertainty can cause difficult coordination problems that may hinder mutually beneficial cooperation. We propose a mechanism of ex-post voluntary transfers designed to circumvent these coordination problems and ask whether it can do so. To test this, we implement a controlled laboratory experiment based on a repeatedly played Ultimatum Game with a stochastic endowment. Contrary to our hypothesis, we find that allowing voluntary transfers does not entail an efficiency increase. We suggest and analyze two main reasons for this finding: First, the stochastic uncertainty forces proposers to accept high strategic uncertainty if they intend to cooperate by claiming a low amount (which many proposers do not). Second, many responders behave only incompletely conditionally cooperative by transferring too little (which hinders cooperation in future periods). T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 20 KW - stochastic uncertainty KW - strategic uncertainty KW - cooperation KW - Ultimatum Game KW - experiment Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-475500 SN - 2628-653X IS - 20 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Friedrichsen, Jana T1 - Choosing between explicit cartel formation and tacit collusion – An experiment T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Numerous studies investigate which sanctioning institutions prevent cartel formation but little is known as to how these sanctions work. We contribute to understanding the inner workings of cartels by studying experimentally the effect of sanctioning institutions on firms’ communication. Using machine learning to organize the chat communication into topics, we find that firms are significantly less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing when sanctioning institutions are present. At the same time, average prices are lower when communication is less explicit. A mediation analysis suggests that sanctions are effective in hindering cartel formation not only because they introduce a risk of being fined but also by reducing the prevalence of explicit price communication. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 19 KW - cartel KW - collusion KW - communication KW - machine learning KW - experiment Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473885 SN - 2628-653X IS - 19 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Hennecke, Juliane T1 - Drinking is Different! BT - Examining the Role of Locus of Control for Alcohol Consumption T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Unhealthy behavior can be extremely costly from a micro- and macroeconomic perspective and exploring the determinants of such behavior is highly important from an economist’s point of view. We examine whether locus of control (LOC) can explain alcohol consumption as an important domain of health behavior. LOC measures how much an individual believes that she is in control of the consequences of her own actions for her life’s future outcomes. While earlier literature showed that an increasing internal LOC is associated with increased health-conscious behavior in domains such as smoking, exercise or diets, we find that drinking seems to be different. Using German panel data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) we find a significant positive effect of having an internal LOC on the probability of moderate and regular drinking. We suggest and discuss two likely mechanisms for this relationship and find interesting gender differences. While social investments play an important role for both men and women, risk perceptions are especially relevant for men. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 18 KW - locus of control KW - alcohol consumption KW - health behavior KW - risk perception KW - social investment Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-469790 SN - 2628-653X IS - 18 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Güth, Werner A1 - Hertwig, Ralph A1 - Orland, Andreas T1 - Do people harness deliberate ignorance to avoid envy and its detrimental effects? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Envy is an unpleasant emotion. If individuals anticipate that comparing their payoff with the (potentially higher) payoff of others will make them envious, they may want to actively avoid information about other people’s payoffs. Given the opportunity to reduce another person’s payoff, an individual’s envy may trigger behavior that is detrimental to welfare. In this case, if individuals anticipate that they will react in a welfare-reducing way, they may also avoid information about other people’s payoffs from the outset. We investigated these two hypotheses using three experiments. We found that 13% of our potentially envious subjects avoided information when they did not have the opportunity to reduce another participant’s payoff. Psychological scales do not explain this behavior. We also found that voluntarily uninformed subjects did neither deduct less of the payoff nor less frequently than subjects who could not avoid the information. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 17 KW - envy KW - emotion regulation KW - deliberate ignorance KW - punishment KW - experiment Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-444463 SN - 2628-653X IS - 17 ER -