TY  - JOUR
A1  - Otto, Christian
A1  - Willner, Sven N.
A1  - Wenz, Leonie
A1  - Frieler, Katja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate
JF  - Journal of economic dynamics & control
N2  - World markets are highly interlinked and local economies extensively rely on global supply and value chains. Consequently, local production disruptions, for instance caused by extreme weather events, are likely to induce indirect losses along supply chains with potentially global repercussions. These complex loss dynamics represent a challenge for comprehensive disaster risk assessments. Here, we introduce the numerical agent-based model acclimate designed to analyze the cascading of economic losses in the global supply network. Using national sectors as agents, we apply the model to study the global propagation of losses induced by stylized disasters. We find that indirect losses can become comparable in size to direct ones, but can be efficiently mitigated by warehousing and idle capacities. Consequently, a comprehensive risk assessment cannot focus solely on first-tier suppliers, but has to take the whole supply chain into account. To render the supply network climate-proof, national adaptation policies have to be complemented by international adaptation efforts. In that regard, our model can be employed to assess reasonable leverage points and to identify dynamic bottlenecks inaccessible to static analyses. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KW  - Disaster impact analysis
KW  - Higher-order effects
KW  - Economic network
KW  - Resilience
KW  - Dynamic input-output model
KW  - Agent-based modeling
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.001
SN  - 0165-1889
SN  - 1879-1743
VL  - 83
SP  - 232
EP  - 269
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - What helps people recover from floods?
BT  - insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in German
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods.
KW  - Floods
KW  - Resilience
KW  - Recovery
KW  - Natural hazards
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Adaptation
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 18
IS  - 1
SP  - 287
EP  - 296
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  -