TY  - JOUR
A1  - Meißl, Gertraud
A1  - Formayer, Herbert
A1  - Klebinder, Klaus
A1  - Kerl, Florian
A1  - Schöberl, Friedrich
A1  - Geitner, Clemens
A1  - Markart, Gerhard
A1  - Leidinger, David
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
T1  - Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments
JF  - Hydrological processes : an international journal
N2  - Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10km(2)) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude-frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Langentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process-based simulation. Rainfall-runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM-RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI-REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP-RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature-controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high-altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change-induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation-related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071-2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried-out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%-11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.
KW  - climate change
KW  - hydrophobic effects
KW  - small Alpine catchments
KW  - soil moisture
KW  - storm runoff events
KW  - system conditions
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11104
SN  - 0885-6087
SN  - 1099-1085
VL  - 31
IS  - 6
SP  - 1314
EP  - 1330
PB  - Wiley
CY  - New York
ER  -