TY - JOUR A1 - Kamprath, Martin A1 - Mietzner, Dana T1 - The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reflective scenario-based approach in the creative industries JF - Technological forecasting & social change N2 - Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational level. However, often these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how competences are important to the sector shift or need to be enhanced in the future. We use primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today's situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in particular for the creative industries case. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. KW - Creative industries KW - Creative economy KW - Digital KW - Convergence KW - Media KW - Entertainment KW - Scenario KW - Foresight KW - Futures studies KW - Technological impact KW - Competences KW - Skills KW - Work KW - Microfoundations KW - Human capital resource KW - Strategic human resources Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011 SN - 0040-1625 SN - 1873-5509 VL - 95 SP - 252 EP - 275 PB - Elsevier CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - van der Duin, Patrick A1 - Heger, Tobias A1 - Schlesinger, Maximilian D. T1 - Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks JF - Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies N2 - Along with the rise of the now popular 'open' paradigm in innovation management, networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks. This article seeks to investigate how innovation networks and foresight are related, to what extent networked foresight activities exist and how they are practiced. For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework and applied to three cases. The foresight activities are analyzed in terms of type, scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size. 'Networked foresight' is clearly observable in all three cases. Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight. However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that 'networked foresight' entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e.g., the broad resource base and the large pool of people with diverse backgrounds that are available. Furthermore, effective instruments for the reintegration of knowledge into the networks' partner organizations are needed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Innovation networks KW - Futures research KW - Foresight KW - Networked foresight KW - Open innovation Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.008 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 59 SP - 62 EP - 78 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER -