TY  - JOUR
A1  - Totz, Sonja Juliana
A1  - Tziperman, Eli
A1  - Coumou, Dim
A1  - Pfeiffer, Karl
A1  - Cohen, Judah
T1  - Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
JF  - Geophysical research letters
N2  - The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
KW  - precipitation anomaly
KW  - seasonal forecast
KW  - cluster analysis
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075674
SN  - 0094-8276
SN  - 1944-8007
VL  - 44
SP  - 12418
EP  - 12426
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  -