TY - JOUR A1 - Deplazes, Gaudenz A1 - Lückge, Andreas A1 - Stuut, Jan-Berend W. A1 - Paetzold, Jürgen A1 - Kuhlmann, Holger A1 - Husson, Dorothee A1 - Fant, Mara A1 - Haug, Gerald H. T1 - Weakening and strengthening of the Indian monsoon during Heinrich events and Dansgaard- Oeschger oscillations JF - Paleoceanography N2 - The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations and Heinrich events described in North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice are expressed in the climate of the tropics, for example, as documented in Arabian Sea sediments. Given the strength of this teleconnection, we seek to reconstruct its range of environmental impacts. We present geochemical and sedimentological data from core SO130-289KL from the Indus submarine slope spanning the last similar to 80 kyr. Elemental and grain size analyses consistently indicate that interstadials are characterized by an increased contribution of fluvial suspension from the Indus River. In contrast, stadials are characterized by an increased contribution of aeolian dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Decadal-scale shifts at climate transitions, such as onsets of interstadials, were coeval with changes in productivity-related proxies. Heinrich events stand out as especially dry and dusty events, indicating a dramatically weakened Indian summer monsoon, potentially increased winter monsoon circulation, and increased aridity on the Arabian Peninsula. This finding is consistent with other paleoclimate evidence for continental aridity in the northern tropics during these events. Our results strengthen the evidence that circum-North Atlantic temperature variations translate to hydrological shifts in the tropics, with major impacts on regional environmental conditions such as rainfall, river discharge, aeolian dust transport, and ocean margin anoxia. KW - Indian Monsoon KW - Arabian Sea KW - XRF KW - Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations KW - Heinrich events KW - Sediment Transport Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013PA002509 SN - 0883-8305 SN - 1944-9186 VL - 29 IS - 2 SP - 99 EP - 114 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Cunha Costa, Alexandre A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil BT - what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models. KW - Water Availability KW - Uncertainty Processor KW - Forecasting Framework KW - Sediment Transport KW - Reservoir Networks KW - Jaguaribe Basin KW - Climate KW - Precipitation KW - Nordeste KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 23 SP - 1951 EP - 1971 PB - Copernicus Publications CY - Göttingen ER -