TY - JOUR A1 - Horton, Benjamin P. A1 - Khan, Nicole S. A1 - Cahill, Niamh A1 - Lee, Janice S. H. A1 - Shaw, Timothy A. A1 - Garner, Andra J. A1 - Kemp, Andrew C. A1 - Engelhart, Simon E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan T1 - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey JF - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science N2 - Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. KW - projections KW - Greenland KW - consequences KW - climate Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5 SN - 2397-3722 VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 8 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Horton, Benjamin P. A1 - Khan, Nicole S. A1 - Cahill, Niamh A1 - Lee, Janice S. H. A1 - Shaw, Timothy A. A1 - Garner, Andra J. A1 - Kemp, Andrew C. A1 - Engelhart, Simon E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan T1 - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1437 KW - projections KW - Greenland KW - consequences KW - climate Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516788 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Makowicz, Amber M. A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph A1 - Steele, Rachel N. A1 - Schlupp, Ingo T1 - Kin recognition in a clonal fish, Poecilia formosa T2 - PLoS ONE N2 - Relatedness strongly influences social behaviors in a wide variety of species. For most species, the highest typical degree of relatedness is between full siblings with 50% shared genes. However, this is poorly understood in species with unusually high relatedness between individuals: clonal organisms. Although there has been some investigation into clonal invertebrates and yeast, nothing is known about kin selection in clonal vertebrates. We show that a clonal fish, the Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa), can distinguish between different clonal lineages, associating with genetically identical, sister clones, and use multiple sensory modalities. Also, they scale their aggressive behaviors according to the relatedness to other females: they are more aggressive to non-related clones. Our results demonstrate that even in species with very small genetic differences between individuals, kin recognition can be adaptive. Their discriminatory abilities and regulation of costly behaviors provides a powerful example of natural selection in species with limited genetic diversity. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 431 KW - toxic hydrogen-sulfide KW - sexual selection KW - hybrid origin KW - discrimination KW - behavior KW - competition KW - aggression KW - cues KW - consequences KW - avoidance Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411329 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Urbach, Tina A1 - Fay, Doris T1 - Leader member exchange in leaders' support for voice BT - good relationships matter in situations of power threat T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - While previous research underscores the role of leaders in stimulating employee voice behaviour, comparatively little is known about what affects leaders' support for such constructive but potentially threatening employee behaviours. We introduce leader member exchange quality (LMX) as a central predictor of leaders' support for employees' ideas for constructive change. Apart from a general benefit of high LMX for leaders' idea support, we propose that high LMX is particularly critical to leaders' idea support if the idea voiced by an employee constitutes a power threat to the leader. We investigate leaders' attribution of prosocial and egoistic employee intentions as mediators of these effects. Hypotheses were tested in a quasi-experimental vignette study (N = 160), in which leaders evaluated a simulated employee idea, and a field study (N = 133), in which leaders evaluated an idea that had been voiced to them at work. Results show an indirect effect of LMX on leaders' idea support via attributed prosocial intentions but not via attributed egoistic intentions, and a buffering effect of high LMX on the negative effect of power threat on leaders' idea support. Results differed across studies with regard to the main effect of LMX on idea support. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 842 KW - proactive personality KW - work KW - consequences KW - behavior KW - performance KW - model KW - trust KW - metaanalysis KW - antecedents KW - supervisors Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-510904 SN - 1866-8364 VL - 70 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Urbach, Tina A1 - Fay, Doris T1 - Leader member exchange in leaders’ support for voice BT - good relationships matter in situations of power threat JF - Applied psychology : an international review JF - Psychologie appliquée N2 - While previous research underscores the role of leaders in stimulating employee voice behaviour, comparatively little is known about what affects leaders' support for such constructive but potentially threatening employee behaviours. We introduce leader member exchange quality (LMX) as a central predictor of leaders' support for employees' ideas for constructive change. Apart from a general benefit of high LMX for leaders' idea support, we propose that high LMX is particularly critical to leaders' idea support if the idea voiced by an employee constitutes a power threat to the leader. We investigate leaders' attribution of prosocial and egoistic employee intentions as mediators of these effects. Hypotheses were tested in a quasi-experimental vignette study (N = 160), in which leaders evaluated a simulated employee idea, and a field study (N = 133), in which leaders evaluated an idea that had been voiced to them at work. Results show an indirect effect of LMX on leaders' idea support via attributed prosocial intentions but not via attributed egoistic intentions, and a buffering effect of high LMX on the negative effect of power threat on leaders' idea support. Results differed across studies with regard to the main effect of LMX on idea support. KW - proactive personality KW - antecedents KW - behavior KW - consequences KW - metaanalysis KW - model KW - performance KW - supervisors KW - trust KW - work Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/apps.12245 SN - 0269-994X SN - 1464-0597 VL - 70 IS - 2 SP - 674 EP - 708 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER -