TY  - GEN
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
T1  - Dynamically vs. empirically downscaled medium-range precipitation forecasts
N2  - For three small, mountainous catchments in Germany two medium-range forecast systems are compared that predict precipitation for up to 5 days in advance. One system is composed of the global German weather service (DWD) model, GME, which is dynamically downscaled using the COSMO-EU regional model. The other system is an empirical (expanded) downscaling of the ECMWF model IFS. Forecasts are verified against multi-year daily observations, by applying standard skill scores to events of specified intensity. All event classes are skillfully predicted by the empirical system for up to five days lead time. For the available prediction range of one to two days it is superior to the dynamical system.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 126 
KW  - Weather-service
KW  - Verification
KW  - Scenarios
KW  - Models
Y1  - 2009
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-44939
ER  -