TY  - JOUR
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models
JF  - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
N2  - Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.
KW  - damage
KW  - insurance
KW  - Germany
KW  - transferability
KW  - preparedness
KW  - recovery
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021
SN  - 2195-9269
VL  - 21
SP  - 1599
EP  - 1614
PB  - European Geophysical Society
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rözer, Viktor
A1  - Müller, Meike
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Kienzler, Sarah
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Pech, Ina
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Buchholz, Oliver
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households
JF  - Water
N2  - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.
KW  - pluvial floods
KW  - surface water flooding
KW  - emergency response
KW  - early warning
KW  - preparedness
KW  - damage
KW  - mitigation
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w8070304
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 8
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -