TY - JOUR A1 - Marquer, Laurent A1 - Gaillard, Marie-Jose A1 - Sugita, Shinya A1 - Poska, Anneli A1 - Trondman, Anna-Kari A1 - Mazier, Florence A1 - Nielsen, Anne Birgitte A1 - Fyfe, Ralph M. A1 - Jonsson, Anna Maria A1 - Smith, Benjamin A1 - Kaplan, Jed O. A1 - Alenius, Teija A1 - Birks, H. John B. A1 - Bjune, Anne E. A1 - Christiansen, Jorg A1 - Dodson, John A1 - Edwards, Kevin J. A1 - Giesecke, Thomas A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Kangur, Mihkel A1 - Koff, Tiiu A1 - Latalowa, Maligorzata A1 - Lechterbeck, Jutta A1 - Olofsson, Jorgen A1 - Seppa, Heikki T1 - Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Climate KW - Holocene KW - Human impact KW - Land use KW - LPJ-GUESS KW - Europe KW - Pollen KW - REVEALS KW - Vegetation composition Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.07.001 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 171 SP - 20 EP - 37 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ganguli, Poulomi A1 - Paprotny, Dominik A1 - Hasan, Mehedi A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe JF - Earth's future N2 - Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods. KW - compound flood KW - storm surge KW - river floods KW - sea level rise KW - climate KW - change KW - Europe Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001752 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 11 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cao, Xianyong A1 - Tian, Fang A1 - Dallmeyer, Anne A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Northern Hemisphere biome changes (> 30 degrees N) since 40 cal ka BP and their driving factors inferred from model-data comparisons JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Biomisation KW - Climate warming KW - Europe KW - Holocene KW - Model-data comparison KW - Northern Asia KW - North America KW - Pollen KW - Siberia KW - Vegetation driver Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.034 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 220 SP - 291 EP - 309 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knapmeyer-Endrun, Brigitte A1 - Krüger, Frank T1 - Moho depth across the Trans-European Suture Zone from P- and S-receiver functions JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The Mohorovicic discontinuity, Moho for short, which marks the boundary between crust and mantle, is the main first-order structure within the lithosphere. Geodynamics and tectonic evolution determine its depth level and properties. Here, we present a map of the Moho in central Europe across the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone, a region for which a number of previous studies are available. Our results are based on homogeneous and consistent processing of P-and S-receiver functions for the largest passive seismological data set in this region yet, consisting of more than 40 000 receiver functions from almost 500 station. Besides, we also provide new results for the crustal vP/vS ratio for the whole area. Our results are in good agreement with previous, more localized receiver function studies, as well as with the interpretation of seismic profiles, while at the same time resolving a higher level of detail than previous maps covering the area, for example regarding the Eifel Plume region, Rhine Graben and northern Alps. The close correspondence with the seismic data regarding crustal structure also increases confidence in use of the data in crustal corrections and the imaging of deeper structure, for which no independent seismic information is available. In addition to the pronounced, stepwise transition from crustal thicknesses of 30 km in Phanerozoic Europe to more than 45 beneath the East European Craton, we can distinguish other terrane boundaries based on Moho depth as well as average crustal v(P)/v(S) ratio and Moho phase amplitudes. The terranes with distinct crustal properties span a wide range of ages, from Palaeoproterozoic in Lithuania to Cenozoic in the Alps, reflecting the complex tectonic history of Europe. Crustal thickness and properties in the study area are also markedly influenced by tectonic overprinting, for example the formation of the Central European Basin System, and the European Cenozoic Rift System. In the areas affected by Cenozoic rifting and volcanism, thinning of the crust corresponds to lithospheric updoming reported in recent surface wave and S-receiver function studies, as expected for thermally induced deformation. The same correlation applies for crustal thickening, not only across the Trans-European Suture Zone, but also within the southern part of the Bohemian Massif. KW - Body waves KW - Cratons KW - Crustal structure KW - Europe Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu035 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 197 IS - 2 SP - 1048 EP - 1075 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa A1 - Sunyer, Maria A. A1 - Lawrence, Deborah A1 - Madsen, Henrik A1 - Willems, Patrick A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Kriauciuniene, Jurate A1 - Loukas, Athanasios A1 - Martinkova, Marta A1 - Osuch, Marzena A1 - Vasiliades, Lampros A1 - von Christierson, Birgitte A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Yuecel, Ismail T1 - Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Flooding KW - Statistical downscaling KW - Regional climate models KW - Climate change KW - Europe Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.033 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 541 SP - 1273 EP - 1286 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barbot, Sylvain A1 - Weiss, Jonathan R. T1 - Connecting subduction, extension and shear localization across the Aegean Sea and Anatolia JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geological structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, translithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north-south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa-Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8mm yr(-1) in a largely trench-normal direction except near eastern Crete where variably oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy-Pliny-Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation. KW - Seismic cycle KW - Space geodetic surveys KW - Europe KW - Joint inversion KW - Kinematics of crustal and mantle deformation KW - Rheology: crust and KW - lithosphere Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab078 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 226 IS - 1 SP - 422 EP - 445 PB - Blackwell CY - Oxford [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Douglas, John A1 - Akkar, Sinan A1 - Ameri, Gabriele A1 - Bard, Pierre-Yves A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Bommer, Julian J. A1 - Bora, Sanjay Singh A1 - Cotton, Fabrice Pierre A1 - Derras, Boumediene A1 - Hermkes, Marcel A1 - Kuehn, Nicolas Martin A1 - Luzi, Lucia A1 - Massa, Marco A1 - Pacor, Francesca A1 - Riggelsen, Carsten A1 - Sandikkaya, M. Abdullah A1 - Scherbaum, Frank A1 - Stafford, Peter J. A1 - Traversa, Paola T1 - Comparisons among the five ground-motion models developed using RESORCE for the prediction of response spectral accelerations due to earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East JF - Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering N2 - This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan. KW - Strong-motion data KW - Ground-motion models KW - Ground-motion prediction equations KW - Style of faulting KW - Site amplification KW - Aleatory variability KW - Epistemic uncertainty KW - Europe KW - Middle East Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9522-8 SN - 1570-761X SN - 1573-1456 VL - 12 IS - 1 SP - 341 EP - 358 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weatherill, Graeme A1 - Cotton, Fabrice Pierre T1 - A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe BT - regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach JF - Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering N2 - Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification. KW - ground motion models KW - stable craton KW - regionalisation KW - epistemic KW - uncertainty KW - Europe Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00940-x SN - 1570-761X SN - 1573-1456 VL - 18 IS - 14 SP - 6119 EP - 6148 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER -