TY  - JOUR
A1  - Mantiloni, Lorenzo
A1  - Davis, Timothy
A1  - Gaete Rojas, Ayleen Barbara
A1  - Rivalta, Eleonora
T1  - Stress inversion in a gelatin box
BT  - testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models
JF  - Geophysical research letters : GRL / American Geophysical Union
N2  - Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical-mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here, we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air-filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks.
KW  - analog experiment
KW  - calderas
KW  - continental rifts
KW  - dike propagation
KW  - dike
KW  - trajectories
KW  - stress field
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090407
SN  - 0094-8276
SN  - 1944-8007
VL  - 48
IS  - 6
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  -