TY  - GEN
A1  - Nathan, Ran
A1  - Horvitz, Nir
A1  - He, Yanping
A1  - Kuparinen, Anna
A1  - Schurr, Frank Martin
A1  - Katul, Gabriel G.
T1  - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments
T2  - Ecology letters
N2  - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - demography
KW  - dispersal
KW  - fat-tailed dispersal kernels
KW  - forecasting
KW  - forests
KW  - invasion by extremes
KW  - long-distance dispersal
KW  - mechanistic models
KW  - plant migration
KW  - population spread
KW  - range expansion
KW  - survival
KW  - wind dispersal
Y1  - 2011
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x
SN  - 1461-023X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 211
EP  - 219
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Malden
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bell, M. J.
A1  - Jones, E.
A1  - Smith, J.
A1  - Smith, P.
A1  - Yeluripati, J.
A1  - Augustin, Jürgen
A1  - Juszczak, R.
A1  - Olejnik, J.
A1  - Sommer, Michael
T1  - Simulation of soil nitrogen, nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation scenarios at 3 European cropland sites using the ECOSSE model
JF  - Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems
N2  - The global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its long atmospheric lifetime mean its presence in the atmosphere is of major concern, and that methods are required to measure and reduce emissions. Large spatial and temporal variations means, however, that simple extrapolation of measured data is inappropriate, and that other methods of quantification are required. Although process-based models have been developed to simulate these emissions, they often require a large amount of input data that is not available at a regional scale, making regional and global emission estimates difficult to achieve. The spatial extent of organic soils means that quantification of emissions from these soil types is also required, but will not be achievable using a process-based model that has not been developed to simulate soil water contents above field capacity or organic soils. The ECOSSE model was developed to overcome these limitations, and with a requirement for only input data that is readily available at a regional scale, it can be used to quantify regional emissions and directly inform land-use change decisions. ECOSSE includes the major processes of nitrogen (N) turnover, with material being exchanged between pools of SOM at rates modified by temperature, soil moisture, soil pH and crop cover. Evaluation of its performance at site-scale is presented to demonstrate its ability to adequately simulate soil N contents and N2O emissions from cropland soils in Europe. Mitigation scenarios and sensitivity analyses are also presented to demonstrate how ECOSSE can be used to estimate the impact of future climate and land-use change on N2O emissions.
KW  - Soil N2O emissions
KW  - Process-based models
KW  - Land-use
KW  - Climate change
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-011-9479-4
SN  - 1385-1314
VL  - 92
IS  - 2
SP  - 161
EP  - 181
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schaldach, Rüdiger
A1  - Wimmer, Florian
A1  - Koch, Jennifer
A1  - Volland, Jan
A1  - Geissler, Katja
A1  - Köchy, Martin
T1  - Model-based analysis of the environmental impacts of grazing management on Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems in Jordan
JF  - Journal of environmental management
N2  - Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to desertification when under grazing pressure. Therefore, management of grazing intensity plays a crucial role to avoid or to diminish land degradation and to sustain both livelihoods and ecosystem functioning. The dynamic land-use model LandSHIFT was applied to a case study on the country level for Jordan. The impacts of different stocking densities on the environment were assessed through a set of simulation experiments for various combinations of climate input and assumptions about the development of livestock numbers. Indicators used for the analysis include a set of landscape metrics to account for habitat fragmentation and the "Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production" (HANPP), i.e., the difference between the amount of net primary production (NPP) that would be available in a natural ecosystem and the amount of NPP that remains under human management. Additionally, the potential of the economic valuation of ecosystem services, including landscape and grazing services, as an analysis concept was explored. We found that lower management intensities had a positive effect on HANPP but at the same time resulted in a strong increase of grazing area. This effect was even more pronounced under climate change due to a predominantly negative effect on the biomass productivity of grazing land. Also Landscape metrics tend to indicate decreasing habitat fragmentation as a consequence of lower grazing pressure. The valuation of ecosystem services revealed that low grazing intensity can lead to a comparatively higher economic value on the country level average. The results from our study underline the importance of considering grazing management as an important factor to manage dry-land ecosystems in a sustainable manner.
KW  - Sustainable management of Mediterranean grazing land
KW  - Land-use modeling
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Landscape metrics
KW  - Ecosystem service value
KW  - Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP)
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.024
SN  - 0301-4797
SN  - 1095-8630
VL  - 127
IS  - 9
SP  - S84
EP  - S95
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Plue, Jan
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Acharya, Kamal P.
A1  - Brunet, Jorg
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume
A1  - Diekmann, Martin
A1  - Graae, Bente J.
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Kolb, Annette
A1  - Lemke, Isgard
A1  - Liira, Jaan
A1  - Naaf, Tobias
A1  - Shevtsova, Anna
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Cousins, Sara A. O.
T1  - Climatic control of forest herb seed banks along a latitudinal gradient
JF  - Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology
N2  - Aim Seed banks are central to the regeneration strategy of many plant species. Any factor altering seed bank density thus affects plant regeneration and population dynamics. Although seed banks are dynamic entities controlled by multiple environmental drivers, climatic factors are the most comprehensive, but still poorly understood. This study investigates how climatic variation structures seed production and resulting seed bank patterns.
 Location Temperate forests along a 1900km latitudinal gradient in north-western (NW) Europe.
 Methods Seed production and seed bank density were quantified in 153 plots along the gradient for four forest herbs with different seed longevity: Geum urbanum, Milium effusum, Poa nemoralis and Stachys sylvatica. We tested the importance of climatic and local environmental factors in shaping seed production and seed bank density.
 Results Seed production was determined by population size, and not by climatic factors. G.urbanum and M.effusum seed bank density declined with decreasing temperature (growing degree days) and/or increasing temperature range (maximum-minimum temperature). P.nemoralis and S.sylvatica seed bank density were limited by population size and not by climatic variables. Seed bank density was also influenced by other, local environmental factors such as soil pH or light availability. Different seed bank patterns emerged due to differential seed longevities. Species with long-lived seeds maintained constant seed bank densities by counteracting the reduced chance of regular years with high seed production at colder northern latitudes.
 Main conclusions Seed bank patterns show clear interspecific variation in response to climate across the distribution range. Not all seed banking species may be as well equipped to buffer climate change via their seed bank, notably in short-term persistent species. Since the buffering capacity of seed banks is key to species persistence, these results provide crucial information to advance climatic change predictions on range shifts, community and biodiversity responses.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - interspecific variation
KW  - plant-climate interaction
KW  - seed longevity
KW  - seed production
KW  - temperate deciduous forest
KW  - temperature
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12068
SN  - 1466-822X
SN  - 1466-8238
VL  - 22
IS  - 10
SP  - 1106
EP  - 1117
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Dolgener, Nicola
A1  - Freudenberger, L.
A1  - Schneeweiss, N.
A1  - Ibisch, P. L.
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralph
T1  - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.
KW  - Brandenburg
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Distribution modelling
KW  - Endangered species
KW  - Fire-bellied toad
KW  - Maxent
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 1063
EP  - 1072
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Caron, Maria Mercedes
A1  - De Frenne, P.
A1  - Brunet, J.
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Cousins, S. A. O.
A1  - De Backer, L.
A1  - Diekmann, M.
A1  - Graae, B. J.
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Kolb, A.
A1  - Naaf, T.
A1  - Plue, J.
A1  - Selvi, F.
A1  - Strimbeck, G. R.
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus
JF  - Plant ecology : an international journal
N2  - Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography.
KW  - Acer platanoides
KW  - Acer pseudoplatanus
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Seed traits
KW  - Latitudinal gradient
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0343-x
SN  - 1385-0237
SN  - 1573-5052
VL  - 215
IS  - 8
SP  - 911
EP  - 925
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lemke, Isgard H.
A1  - Kolb, Annette
A1  - Graae, Bente J.
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Acharya, Kamal P.
A1  - Blandino, Cristina
A1  - Brunet, Jorg
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Cousins, Sara A. O.
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Liira, Jaan
A1  - Schmucki, Reto
A1  - Shevtsova, Anna
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
A1  - Diekmann, Martin
T1  - Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient
JF  - Plant ecology : an international journal
N2  - Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Global environmental change
KW  - Milium effusum
KW  - Phenotypic plasticity
KW  - Intraspecific variation
KW  - Stachys sylvatica
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-015-0534-0
SN  - 1385-0237
SN  - 1573-5052
VL  - 216
IS  - 11
SP  - 1523
EP  - 1536
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Geyer, Juliane
A1  - Strixner, Lena
A1  - Kreft, Stefan
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
A1  - Ibisch, Pierre L.
T1  - Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Adaptation options
KW  - Nature conservation management
KW  - Vulnerability
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 15
IS  - 1
SP  - 139
EP  - 153
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Caron, Maria Mercedes
A1  - De Frenne, P.
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Cousins, S. A. O.
A1  - De Backer, L.
A1  - Decocq, G.
A1  - Diekmann, M.
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Kolb, A.
A1  - Naaf, T.
A1  - Plue, J.
A1  - Selvi, F.
A1  - Strimbeck, G. R.
A1  - Wulf, M.
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Impacts of warming and changes in precipitation frequency on the regeneration of two Acer species
JF  - Flora : morphology, distribution, functional ecology of plants
KW  - Seed provenance
KW  - Germination
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Interactive effects
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2015.05.005
SN  - 0367-2530
SN  - 1618-0585
VL  - 214
SP  - 24
EP  - 33
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Jena
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Groeneveld, Jürgen
A1  - Johst, Karin
A1  - Kawaguchi, So
A1  - Meyer, Bettina
A1  - Teschke, Mathias
A1  - Grimm, Volker
T1  - How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog
N2  - The Southern Ocean ecosystem is characterized by extreme seasonal changes in environmental factors such as day length, sea ice extent and food availability. The key species Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has evolved metabolic and behavioural seasonal rhythms to cope with these seasonal changes. We investigate the switch between a physiological less active and active period for adult krill, a rhythm which seems to be controlled by internal biological clocks. These biological clocks can be synchronized by environmental triggers such as day length and food availability. They have evolved for particular environmental regimes to synchronize predictable seasonal environmental changes with important life cycle functions of the species. In a changing environment the time when krill is metabolically active and the time of peak food availability may not overlap if krill's seasonal activity is solely determined by photoperiod (day length). This is especially true for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean where the spatio-temporal ice cover dynamics are changing substantially with rising average temperatures. We developed an individual-based model for krill to explore the impact of photoperiod and food availability on the growth and demographics of krill. We simulated dynamics of local krill populations (with no movement of krill assumed) along a south-north gradient for different triggers of metabolic activity and different levels of food availability below the ice. We also observed the fate of larval krill which cannot switch to low metabolism and therefore are likely to overwinter under ice. Krill could only occupy the southern end of the gradient, where algae bloom only lasts for a short time, when alternative food supply under the ice was high and metabolic activity was triggered by photoperiod. The northern distribution was limited by lack of overwintering habitat for krill larvae due to short duration of sea ice cover even for high food content under the ice. The variability of the krill's length-frequency distributions varied for different triggers of metabolic activity, but did not depend on the sea ice extent. Our findings suggest a southward shift of krill populations due to reduction in the spatial sea ice extent, which is consistent with field observations. Overall, our results highlight the importance of the explicit consideration of spatio-temporal sea ice dynamics especially for larval krill together with temporal synchronization through internal clocks, triggered by environmental factors (photoperiod and food) in adult krill for the population modelling of krill. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KW  - Dynamic energy budget theory
KW  - Individual based model
KW  - Southern Ocean
KW  - Sea ice
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Marine ecology
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.009
SN  - 0304-3800
SN  - 1872-7026
VL  - 303
SP  - 78
EP  - 86
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Fer, Istem
A1  - Tietjen, Britta
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
T1  - High-resolution modelling closes the gap between data and model simulations for Mid-Holocene and present-day biomes of East Africa
JF  - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences
N2  - East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10′ × 10′) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality.
KW  - Dynamic vegetation models
KW  - Biome
KW  - Mid-Holocene
KW  - Leaf area index
KW  - Climate change
KW  - East Africa
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.001
SN  - 0031-0182
SN  - 1872-616X
VL  - 444
SP  - 144
EP  - 151
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayllon, Daniel
A1  - Railsback, Steven Floyd
A1  - Vincenzi, Simone
A1  - Groeneveld, Juergen
A1  - Almodoevar, Ana
A1  - Grimm, Volker
T1  - InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog
N2  - Current rates of environmental change are exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt to new conditions and thus avoid demographic collapse and ultimate extinction. In particular, cold-water freshwater fish species are predicted to experience strong selective pressure from climate change and a wide range of interacting anthropogenic stressors in the near future. To implement effective management and conservation measures, it is crucial to quantify the maximum rate of change that cold-water freshwater fish populations can withstand. Here, we present a spatially explicit eco-genetic individual-based model, inSTREAM-Gen, to predict the eco-evolutionary dynamics of stream-dwelling trout under anthropogenic environmental change. The model builds on a well-tested demographic model, which includes submodels of river dynamics, bioenergetics, and adaptive habitat selection, with a new genetic module that allows exploration of genetic and life-history adaptations to new environments. The genetic module models the transmission of two key traits, size at emergence and maturity size threshold. We parameterized the model for a brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population at the warmest edge of its range to validate it and analyze its sensitivity to parameters under contrasting thermal profiles. To illustrate potential applications of the model, we analyzed the population's demographic and evolutionary dynamics under scenarios of (1) climate change-induced warming, and (2) warming plus flow reduction resulting from climate and land use change, compared to (3) a baseline of no environmental change. The model predicted severe declines in density and biomass under climate warming. These declines were lower than expected at range margins because of evolution towards smaller size at both emergence and maturation compared to the natural evolution under the baseline conditions. Despite stronger evolutionary responses, declining rates were substantially larger under the combined warming and flow reduction scenario, leading to a high probability of population extinction over contemporary time frames. Therefore, adaptive responses could not prevent extinction under high rates of environmental change. Our model demonstrates critical elements of next generation ecological modelling aiming at predictions in a changing world as it accounts for spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity, while merging individual behaviour and bioenergetics with microevolutionary adaptations.
KW  - Individual-based model
KW  - Eco-genetic modelling
KW  - Eco-evolution
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Brown trout
KW  - Next-generation modelling
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.026
SN  - 0304-3800
SN  - 1872-7026
VL  - 326
SP  - 36
EP  - 53
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bergholz, Kolja
A1  - May, Felix
A1  - Ristow, Michael
A1  - Giladi, Itamar
A1  - Ziv, Yaron
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
T1  - Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient
JF  - Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft für Ökologie
N2  - Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Functional ecology
KW  - Plant height
KW  - Drought stress
KW  - Rainfall gradient
KW  - Trait-environment relationship
KW  - Local adaptation
KW  - Phenotypic plasticity
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001
SN  - 1439-1791
SN  - 1618-0089
VL  - 25
SP  - 48
EP  - 58
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Jena
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Luis Horreo, Jose
A1  - Luisa Pelaez, Maria
A1  - Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne
A1  - Suarez, Teresa
A1  - Urieta, Maria
A1  - Fitze, Patrick S.
T1  - Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard
JF  - European journal of wildlife research
N2  - Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species’ adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Conservation
KW  - First-generation migrant
KW  - gene flow
KW  - IBD
KW  - Zootoca vivipara
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6
SN  - 1612-4642
SN  - 1439-0574
VL  - 65
IS  - 1
PB  - Springer
CY  - New York
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Leins, Johannes A.
A1  - Banitz, Thomas
A1  - Grimm, Volker
A1  - Drechsler, Martin
T1  - High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing
BT  - lessons from the large marsh grasshopper
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology
N2  - Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Land use
KW  - Population viability analysis
KW  - Stage-based model
KW  - High resolution
KW  - Environmental gradients
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355
SN  - 0304-3800
SN  - 1872-7026
VL  - 440
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  -