TY - JOUR A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Vasile, Ruggero A1 - Zhelayskaya, Irina S. T1 - Nowcasting and Predicting the Kp Index Using Historical Values and Real-Time Observations JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions. KW - Kp index KW - geomagnetic activity KW - empirical prediction KW - solar wind KW - forecast KW - AI Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002141 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 17 IS - 8 SP - 1219 EP - 1229 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vafin, Sergei A1 - Riazantseva, Maria A1 - Pohl, Martin T1 - Coulomb collisions as a candidate for temperature anisotropy constraints in the solar wind JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics ; Part 2, Letters N2 - Many solar wind observations at 1 au indicate that the proton (as well as electron) temperature anisotropy is limited. The data distribution in the (A(a), beta(a),(parallel to))-plane have a rhombic-shaped form around beta(a),(parallel to) similar to 1. The boundaries of the temperature anisotropy at beta(a),(parallel to) > 1 can be well explained by the threshold conditions of the mirror (whistler) and oblique proton (electron) firehose instabilities in a bi-Maxwellian plasma, whereas the physical mechanism of the similar restriction at beta(a),(parallel to) < 1 is still under debate. One possible option is Coulomb collisions, which we revisit in the current work. We derive the relaxation rate nu(A)(aa) of the temperature anisotropy in a bi-Maxwellian plasma that we then study analytically and by observed proton data from WIND. We found that nu(A)(pp) increases toward small beta(p),(parallel to) < 1. We matched the data distribution in the (A(p), beta(p),(parallel to))-plane with the constant contour nu(A)(pp) = 2.8 . 10(-6) s(-1), corresponding to the minimum value for collisions to play a role. This contour fits rather well the left boundary of the rhombic-shaped data distribution in the (A(p), beta(p),(parallel to))-plane. Thus, Coulomb collisions are an interesting candidate for explaining the limitations of the temperature anisotropy in the solar wind with small beta(a),(parallel to) < 1 at 1 au. KW - instabilities KW - plasmas KW - scattering KW - solar wind KW - Sun: heliosphere Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aafb11 SN - 2041-8205 SN - 2041-8213 VL - 871 IS - 1 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vafin, Sergei A1 - Lazar, M. A1 - Fichtner, H. A1 - Schlickeiser, R. A1 - Drillisch, M. T1 - Solar wind temperature anisotropy constraints from streaming instabilities JF - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal N2 - Due to the relatively low rate of particle-particle collisions in the solar wind, kinetic instabilities (e.g., the mirror and firehose) play an important role in regulating large deviations from temperature isotropy. These instabilities operate in the high beta(parallel to) > 1 plasmas, and cannot explain the other limits of the temperature anisotropy reported by observations in the low beta beta(parallel to) < 1 regimes. However, the instability conditions are drastically modified in the presence of streaming (or counterstreaming) components, which are ubiquitous in space plasmas. These effects have been analyzed for the solar wind conditions in a large interval of heliospheric distances, 0.3-2.5 AU. It was found that proton counter-streams are much more crucial for plasma stability than electron ones. Moreover, new instability thresholds can potentially explain all observed bounds on the temperature anisotropy, and also the level of differential streaming in the solar wind. KW - solar wind KW - instabilities KW - waves KW - turbulence Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201731852 SN - 1432-0746 VL - 613 PB - EDP Sciences CY - Les Ulis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Usanova, Maria E. A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. T1 - Inner magnetosphere coupling BT - Recent advances JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - The dynamics of the inner magnetosphere is strongly governed by the interactions between different plasma populations that are coupled through large-scale electric and magnetic fields, currents, and wave-particle interactions. Inner magnetospheric plasma undergoes self-consistent interactions with global electric and magnetic fields. Waves excited in the inner magnetosphere from unstable particle distributions can provide energy exchange between different particle populations in the inner magnetosphere and affect the ring current and radiation belt dynamics. The ionosphere serves as an energy sink and feeds the magnetosphere back through the cold plasma outflow. The precipitating inner magnetospheric particles influence the ionosphere and upper atmospheric chemistry and affect climate. Satellite measurements and theoretical studies have advanced our understanding of the dynamics of various plasma populations in the inner magnetosphere. However, our knowledge of the coupling processes among the plasmasphere, ring current, radiation belts, global magnetic and electric fields, and plasma waves generated within these systems is still incomplete. This special issue incorporates extended papers presented at the Inner Magnetosphere Coupling III conference held 23–27 March 2015 in Los Angeles, California, USA, and includes modeling and observational contributions addressing interactions within different plasma populations in the inner magnetosphere (plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts), coupling between fields and plasma populations, as well as effects of the inner magnetosphere on the ionosphere and atmosphere. KW - inner magnetosphere KW - ring current KW - radiation belts KW - magnetosphere KW - ionosphere interactions KW - plasmasphere KW - solar wind Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023614 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 122 IS - 1 SP - 102 EP - 104 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vafin, Sergei A1 - Riazantseva, M. A1 - Yoon, P. H. T1 - Kinetic Features in the Ion Flux Spectrum JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics N2 - An interesting feature of solar wind fluctuations is the occasional presence of a well-pronounced peak near the spectral knee. These peaks are well investigated in the context of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath and they are typically related to kinetic plasma instabilities. Recently, similar peaks were observed in the spectrum of ion flux fluctuations of the solar wind and magnetosheath. In this paper, we propose a simple analytical model to describe such peaks in the ion flux spectrum based on the linear theory of plasma fluctuations. We compare our predictions with a sample observation in the solar wind. For the given observation, the peak requires similar to 10 minutes to grow up to the observed level that agrees with the quasi-linear relaxation time. Moreover, our model well reproduces the form of the measured peak in the ion flux spectrum. The observed lifetime of the peak is about 50 minutes, which is relatively close to the nonlinear Landau damping time of 30-40 minutes. Overall, our model proposes a plausible scenario explaining the observation. KW - instabilities KW - solar wind KW - turbulence KW - waves Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aa9519 SN - 0004-637X SN - 1538-4357 VL - 850 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lopez-Barquero, Vanessa A1 - Xu, S. A1 - Desiati, Paolo A1 - Lazarian, Alex A1 - Pogorelov, Nikolai V. A1 - Yan, Huirong T1 - TeV Cosmic-Ray Anisotropy from the Magnetic Field at the Heliospheric Boundary JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics KW - cosmic rays KW - magnetic fields KW - magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) KW - solar wind KW - Sun: heliosphere Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aa74d1 SN - 0004-637X SN - 1538-4357 VL - 842 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vafin, Sergei A1 - Schlickeiser, R. A1 - Yoon, P. H. T1 - AMPLIFICATION OF COLLECTIVE MAGNETIC FLUCTUATIONS IN MAGNETIZED BI-MAXWELLIAN PLASMAS FOR PARALLEL WAVE VECTORS. I. ELECTRON-PROTON PLASMA JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics N2 - The general electromagnetic fluctuation theory is a powerful tool to analyze the magnetic fluctuation spectrum of a plasma. Recent works utilizing this theory for a magnetized non-relativistic isotropic Maxwellian electron-proton plasma have demonstrated that the equilibrium ratio of vertical bar delta B vertical bar/B-0 can be as high as 10(-12). This value results from the balance between spontaneous emission of fluctuations and their damping, and it is considerably smaller than the observed value vertical bar delta B vertical bar/B-0 in the solar wind at 1 au, where 10(-3) less than or similar to vertical bar delta B vertical bar/B-0 less than or similar to 10(-1). In the present manuscript, we consider an anisotropic bi-Maxwellian distribution function to investigate the effect of plasma instabilities on the magnetic field fluctuations. We demonstrate that these instabilities strongly amplify the magnetic field fluctuations and provide a sufficient mechanism to explain the observed value of vertical bar delta B vertical bar/B-0 in the solar wind at 1 au. KW - instabilities KW - magnetic fields KW - solar wind KW - turbulence KW - waves Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/829/1/41 SN - 0004-637X SN - 1538-4357 VL - 829 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER -