TY - GEN A1 - Auhagen, Christopher Patrick A1 - Uth, Melanie T1 - Variation of relative complementizers in Yucatecan Spanish BT - A comparison of monolingual and bilingual speakers T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe N2 - The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, ‘(in) that’, instead of (en) el que, ‘(in) which’, in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu’ux (‘where’) is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe - 181 KW - relative complementation KW - variability KW - language contact KW - diachrony KW - Yucatecan Spanish Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-584375 SN - 1866-8380 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Müller, Juliane A1 - Stein, Ruediger A1 - Tiedemann, Ralf A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Changes in the composition of marine and sea-ice diatoms derived from sedimentary ancient DNA of the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 % of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 % of them being resolved to species and 25.8 % to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations – after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 % of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1195 KW - last glacial maximum KW - surface temperatures KW - species composition KW - greenland shelf KW - Disko Bay KW - phytoplankton KW - communities KW - variability KW - diversity KW - Svalbard Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525154 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 5 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schaefer, Laura A1 - Bittmann, Frank T1 - Mechanotendography in Achillodynia shows reduced oscillation variability of pre-loaded Achilles tendon BT - a pilot study T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The present study focuses on an innovative approach in measuring the mechanical oscillations of pre-loaded Achilles tendon by using Mechanotendography (MTG) during application of a short yet powerful mechanical pressure impact. This was applied on the forefoot from the plantar side in direction of dorsiflexion, while the subject stood on the ball of the forefoot on one leg. Participants with Achilles tendinopathy (AT; n = 10) were compared to healthy controls (Con; n = 10). Five trials were performed on each side of the body. For evaluation, two intervals after the impulse began (0-100ms; 30-100ms) were cut from the MTG and pressure raw signals. The intrapersonal variability between the five trials in both intervals were evaluated using the arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the mean correlation (Spearman rank correlation) and the normalized averaged mean distances, respectively. The AT-group showed a significantly reduced variability in MTG compared to the Con-group (from p = 0.006 to p = 0.028 for different parameters). The 95% confidence intervals (CI) of MTG results were disjoint, whereas the 95% CIs of the pressure signals were similar (p = 0.192 to p = 0.601). We suggest from this work that the variability of mechanical tendon oscillations could be an indicative parameter of an altered Achilles tendon functionality. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 668 KW - Mechanotendography KW - mechanical tendinous oscillations KW - variability KW - impact on pre-activated Achilles tendon Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-483499 SN - 1866-8364 IS - 668 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rottler, Erwin A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016 BT - Impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1412 KW - empirical mode decomposition KW - atmospheric blocking KW - heavy precipitation KW - streamflow trends KW - climate-change KW - rhine basin KW - time-series KW - events KW - Switzerland KW - variability Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517763 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 4 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Goswami, Bedartha A1 - Boers, Niklas A1 - Rheinwalt, Aljoscha A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Heitzig, Jobst A1 - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Abrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 576 KW - North-Atlantic climate KW - Indian monsoon KW - Holocene KW - teleconnections KW - variability KW - periods KW - records Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423111 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 576 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Acevedo, Walter A1 - Fallah, Bijan A1 - Reich, Sebastian A1 - Cubasch, Ulrich T1 - Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 627 KW - high resolution paleoclimatology KW - sparse proxy data KW - climate reconstructions KW - limiting factors KW - Kalman filter KW - co-limitation KW - ensemble KW - variability KW - reanalysis KW - framework Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418743 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 627 SP - 545 EP - 557 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Molnos, Sonja A1 - Mamdouh, Tarek A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Nocke, Thomas A1 - Weinkauf, Tino A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 625 KW - Southern-Hemisphere KW - variability KW - weather KW - driven KW - amplification KW - circulation KW - reanalysis KW - extremes KW - climate KW - summer Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 625 SP - 75 EP - 89 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nord, Guillaume A1 - Boudevillain, Brice A1 - Berne, Alexis A1 - Branger, Flora A1 - Braud, Isabelle A1 - Dramais, Guillaume A1 - Gérard, Simon A1 - Le Coz, Jérôme A1 - Legoût, Cédric A1 - Molinié, Gilles A1 - Van Baelen, Joel A1 - Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre A1 - Andrieu, Julien A1 - Aubert, Coralie A1 - Calianno, Martin A1 - Delrieu, Guy A1 - Grazioli, Jacopo A1 - Hachani, Sahar A1 - Horner, Ivan A1 - Huza, Jessica A1 - Le Boursicaud, Raphaël A1 - Raupach, Timothy H. A1 - Teuling, Adriaan J. A1 - Uber, Magdalena A1 - Vincendon, Béatrice A1 - Wijbrans, Annette T1 - A high space–time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche region, France T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 201131 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km(2)) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution (similar to km(2), similar to min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km(2), 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo-France (including 2m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations estimate water discharge at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two of these stations also measure additional physico-chemical variables (turbidity, temperature, conductivity) and water samples are collected automatically during floods, allowing further geochemical characterization of water and suspended solids. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 sensors installed in the intermittent hydrographic network continuously measures water level and water temperature in headwater subcatchments (from 0.17 to 116 km(2)) at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enables the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, concomitant observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. Finally, this dataset is considered appropriate for understanding the rainfall variability in time and space at fine scales, improving areal rainfall estimations and progressing in distributed hydrological and erosion modelling. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 671 KW - hydraulic properties KW - soil moisture KW - flash floods KW - rainfall KW - radar KW - scale KW - variability KW - transport KW - erosion KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419127 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 671 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Seibert, Mathias A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin BT - a comparison of statistical methods T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships. 4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 626 KW - sea-surface temperature KW - southern Africa KW - neural-network KW - summer rainfall KW - Atlantic-Ocean KW - river-basin KW - predictability KW - variability KW - prediction KW - climate Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418442 IS - 626 SP - 1611 EP - 1629 ER - TY - GEN A1 - De Souza Silveira, Raul A1 - Carlsohn, Anja A1 - Langen, Georg A1 - Mayer, Frank A1 - Scharhag-Rosenberger, Friederike T1 - Reliability and day-to-day variability of peak fat oxidation during treadmill ergometry T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background: Exercising at intensities where fat oxidation rates are high has been shown to induce metabolic benefits in recreational and health-oriented sportsmen. The exercise intensity (Fat peak ) eliciting peak fat oxidation rates is therefore of particular interest when aiming to prescribe exercise for the purpose of fat oxidation and related metabolic effects. Although running and walking are feasible and popular among the target population, no reliable protocols are available to assess Fat peak as well as its actual velocity (V PFO ) during treadmill ergometry. Our purpose was therefore, to assess the reliability and day-to-day variability of V PFO and Fat peak during treadmill ergometry running. Methods: Sixteen recreational athletes (f = 7, m = 9; 25 ± 3 y; 1.76 ± 0.09 m; 68.3 ± 13.7 kg; 23.1 ± 2.9 kg/m 2 ) performed 2 different running protocols on 3 different days with standardized nutrition the day before testing. At day 1, peak oxygen uptake (VO 2peak ) and the velocities at the aerobic threshold (V LT ) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) of 1.00 (V RER ) were assessed. At days 2 and 3, subjects ran an identical submaximal incremental test (Fat-peak test) composed of a 10 min warm-up (70 % V LT ) followed by 5 stages of 6 min with equal increments (stage 1 = V LT , stage 5 = V RER ). Breath-by-breath gas exchange data was measured continuously and used to determine fat oxidation rates. A third order polynomial function was used to identify V PFO and subsequently Fat peak . The reproducibility and variability of variables was verified with an int raclass correlation coef ficient (ICC), Pearson ’ s correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation (CV) an d the mean differences (bias) ± 95 % limits of agreement (LoA). Results: ICC, Pearson ’ s correlation and CV for V PFO and Fat peak were 0.98, 0.97, 5.0 %; and 0.90, 0.81, 7.0 %, respectively. Bias ± 95 % LoA was − 0.3 ± 0.9 km/h for V PFO and − 2±8%ofVO 2peak for Fat peak. Conclusion: In summary, relative and absolute reliability indicators for V PFO and Fat peak were found to be excellent. The observed LoA may now serve as a basis for future training prescriptions, although fat oxidation rates at prolonged exercise bouts at this intensity still need to be investigated. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 423 KW - peak fat oxidation KW - reliability KW - variability KW - running KW - treadmill ergometry Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407334 IS - 423 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Cohen, Abby A1 - Campisano, Christopher A1 - Arrowsmith, J. Ramon A1 - Asrat, Asfawossen A1 - Behrensmeyer, A. K. A1 - Deino, A. A1 - Feibel, C. A1 - Hill, A. A1 - Johnson, R. A1 - Kingston, J. A1 - Lamb, Henry F. A1 - Lowenstein, T. A1 - Noren, A. A1 - Olago, D. A1 - Owen, Richard Bernhart A1 - Potts, R. A1 - Reed, Kate A1 - Renaut, R. A1 - Schäbitz, F. A1 - Tiercelin, J.-J. A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Wynn, J. A1 - Ivory, S. A1 - Brady, K. A1 - O’Grady, R. A1 - Rodysill, J. A1 - Githiri, J. A1 - Russell, Joellen A1 - Foerster, Verena A1 - Dommain, René A1 - Rucina, J. S. A1 - Deocampo, D. A1 - Russell, J. A1 - Billingsley, A. A1 - Beck, C. A1 - Dorenbeck, G. A1 - Dullo, L. A1 - Feary, D. A1 - Garello, D. A1 - Gromig, R. A1 - Johnson, T. A1 - Junginger, Annett A1 - Karanja, M. A1 - Kimburi, E. A1 - Mbuthia, A. A1 - McCartney, Tannis A1 - McNulty, E. A1 - Muiruri, V. A1 - Nambiro, E. A1 - Negash, E. W. A1 - Njagi, D. A1 - Wilson, J. N. A1 - Rabideaux, N. A1 - Raub, Timothy A1 - Sier, Mark Jan A1 - Smith, P. A1 - Urban, J. A1 - Warren, M. A1 - Yadeta, M. A1 - Yost, Chad A1 - Zinaye, B. T1 - The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project BT - inferring the environmental context of human evolution from eastern African rift lake deposits T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 611 KW - Turkana-Basin KW - Adar formation KW - climate-change KW - olorgesailie formation KW - Southern Ethiopia KW - global climate KW - Kenya Rift KW - Pleistocene KW - variability KW - patterns Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412498 IS - 611 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sunyer, M. A. A1 - Hundecha, Y. A1 - Lawrence, D. A1 - Madsen, H. A1 - Willems, Patrick A1 - Martinkova, M. A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Hanel, Martin A1 - Kriaučiūnienė, J. A1 - Loukas, A. A1 - Osuch, M. A1 - Yücel, I. T1 - Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale. This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 512 KW - climate-change impacts KW - model output KW - assessing uncertainties KW - multimodel ensemble KW - bias correction KW - simulations KW - scenarios KW - variability KW - basin KW - UK Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408920 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 512 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Dallmeyer, Anne A1 - Claussen, M. A1 - Fischer, N. A1 - Haberkorn, K. A1 - Wagner, S. A1 - Pfeiffer, M. A1 - Jin, L. A1 - Khon, Vyacheslav A1 - Wang, Y. A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene BT - comparison of different transient climate model simulations T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 587 KW - summer monsoon KW - global monsoon KW - indian monsoon KW - high-resolution KW - cave records KW - variability KW - precipitation KW - circulation KW - insolation KW - rainfall Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409727 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 587 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Clason, Caroline C. A1 - Mair, D. W. F. A1 - Nienow, P. W. A1 - Bartholomew, I. D. A1 - Sole, Andrew A1 - Palmer, Steven A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang T1 - Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 513 KW - meltice-sheet motion KW - seasonal evolution KW - West Greenland KW - subglacial drainage KW - melt KW - lake KW - variability KW - fracture KW - acceleration KW - lubrication Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409053 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 513 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kormann, C. A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Renner, M. A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria BT - an approach based on climate and discharge station data N2 - The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 260 KW - time-series KW - alpine KW - snow KW - variability KW - switzerland KW - impacts KW - regimes KW - temperature KW - seasonality KW - catchments Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-96560 SP - 1225 EP - 1245 ER -