TY - JOUR A1 - Vogel, Johannes A1 - Paton, Eva A1 - Aich, Valentin A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Increasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin JF - Weather and climate extremes N2 - The co-occurrence of warm spells and droughts can lead to detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts, largely surpassing the impacts of either warm spells or droughts alone. We quantify changes in the number of compound warm spells and droughts from 1979 to 2018 in the Mediterranean Basin using the ERA5 data set. We analyse two types of compound events: 1) warm season compound events, which are extreme in absolute terms in the warm season from May to October and 2) year-round deseasonalised compound events, which are extreme in relative terms respective to the time of the year. The number of compound events increases significantly and especially warm spells are increasing strongly – with an annual growth rates of 3.9 (3.5) % for warm season (deseasonalised) compound events and 4.6 (4.4) % for warm spells –, whereas for droughts the change is more ambiguous depending on the applied definition. Therefore, the rise in the number of compound events is primarily driven by temperature changes and not the lack of precipitation. The months July and August show the highest increases in warm season compound events, whereas the highest increases of deseasonalised compound events occur in spring and early summer. This increase in deseasonalised compound events can potentially have a significant impact on the functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems as this is the peak phase of ecosystem productivity and a vital phenophase. KW - Compound events KW - Warm spells KW - Droughts KW - Mediterranean basin KW - Extreme events KW - Climate change Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100312 SN - 2212-0947 VL - 32 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vogel, Johannes T1 - Drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe JF - International Journal of Biometeorology N2 - The life cycle of plants is largely determined by climate, which renders phenological responses to climate change a highly suitable bioindicator of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear, which are the key drivers of phenological patterns at certain life stages. Furthermore, the varying responses of species belonging to different plant functional types are not fully understood. In this study, the role of temperature and precipitation as environmental drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe is assessed. The trends of the phenophases leaf unfolding, flowering, fruiting, and senescence are quantified, and the corresponding main environmental drivers are identified. A clear trend towards an earlier onset of leaf unfolding, flowering, and fruiting is detected, while there is no clear pattern for senescence. In general, the advancement of leaf unfolding, flowering and fruiting is smaller for deciduous broadleaf trees in comparison to deciduous shrubs and crops. Many broadleaf trees are photoperiod-sensitive; therefore, their comparatively small phenological advancements are likely the effect of photoperiod counterbalancing the impact of increasing temperatures. While temperature is identified as the main driver of phenological changes, precipitation also plays a crucial role in determining the onset of leaf unfolding and flowering. Phenological phases advance under dry conditions, which can be linked to the lack of transpirational cooling leading to rising temperatures, which subsequently accelerate plant growth. KW - Phenology KW - Southern Europe KW - Plant functional types KW - Linear mixed effect model KW - Climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02331-0 SN - 0020-7128 SN - 1432-1254 VL - 66 IS - 9 SP - 1903 EP - 1914 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Unterberger, Christian A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Schroeer, Katharina A1 - Steininger, Karl W. T1 - Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements BT - An Assessment for Austria JF - Ecological economics N2 - Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria. KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation KW - Flood risk KW - Insurance KW - Public sector KW - Risk reduction Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.019 SN - 0921-8009 SN - 1873-6106 VL - 156 SP - 153 EP - 163 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - What helps people recover from floods? BT - insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in German JF - Regional environmental change N2 - The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods. KW - Floods KW - Resilience KW - Recovery KW - Natural hazards KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 287 EP - 296 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Avrami, Lydia A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Measuring and explaining the EU’s effect on national climate performance JF - Environmental Politics N2 - To what extent has the European Union (EU) had a benign or retarding effect on what its member states would have undertaken in the absence of EU climate policies during 2008–2012? A measurement tool for the EU policy’s effect is developed and shows a benign average EU effect with considerable variation across countries. The EU’s policy effectiveness vis-à-vis its member states is explained by the EU’s non-compliance mechanism, the degree of usage of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, and national pre-Kyoto emission reduction goals. Time-series cross-sectional analyses show that the EU’s non-compliance mechanism has no effect, while the ex-ante plans for using Kyoto flexible mechanisms and/or the ambitious pre-Kyoto emission reduction targets allow member states to escape constraints imposed by EU climate policy. KW - Climate change KW - policy effectiveness KW - EU KW - kyoto protocol KW - non-compliance KW - Kyoto (flexible) mechanisms Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2018.1494945 SN - 0964-4016 SN - 1743-8934 VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 822 EP - 846 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER -