TY  - JOUR
A1  - Horton, Benjamin P.
A1  - Khan, Nicole S.
A1  - Cahill, Niamh
A1  - Lee, Janice S. H.
A1  - Shaw, Timothy A.
A1  - Garner, Andra J.
A1  - Kemp, Andrew C.
A1  - Engelhart, Simon E.
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
T1  - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
JF  - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
N2  - Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
KW  - projections
KW  - Greenland
KW  - consequences
KW  - climate
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
SN  - 2397-3722
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
SP  - 1
EP  - 8
PB  - Springer Nature
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Urbach, Tina
A1  - Fay, Doris
T1  - Leader member exchange in leaders’ support for voice
BT  - good relationships matter in situations of power threat
JF  - Applied psychology : an international review
JF  - Psychologie appliquée
N2  - While previous research underscores the role of leaders in stimulating employee voice behaviour, comparatively little is known about what affects leaders' support for such constructive but potentially threatening employee behaviours. We introduce leader member exchange quality (LMX) as a central predictor of leaders' support for employees' ideas for constructive change. Apart from a general benefit of high LMX for leaders' idea support, we propose that high LMX is particularly critical to leaders' idea support if the idea voiced by an employee constitutes a power threat to the leader. We investigate leaders' attribution of prosocial and egoistic employee intentions as mediators of these effects. Hypotheses were tested in a quasi-experimental vignette study (N = 160), in which leaders evaluated a simulated employee idea, and a field study (N = 133), in which leaders evaluated an idea that had been voiced to them at work. Results show an indirect effect of LMX on leaders' idea support via attributed prosocial intentions but not via attributed egoistic intentions, and a buffering effect of high LMX on the negative effect of power threat on leaders' idea support. Results differed across studies with regard to the main effect of LMX on idea support.
KW  - proactive personality
KW  - antecedents
KW  - behavior
KW  - consequences
KW  - metaanalysis
KW  - model
KW  - performance
KW  - supervisors
KW  - trust
KW  - work
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/apps.12245
SN  - 0269-994X
SN  - 1464-0597
VL  - 70
IS  - 2
SP  - 674
EP  - 708
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -