TY - JOUR A1 - Molnos, Sonja A1 - Mamdouh, Tarek A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Nocke, Thomas A1 - Weinkauf, Tino A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-75-2017 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 8 IS - 1 SP - 75 EP - 89 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Evidence for wave resonance as a key mechanism for generating high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves in boreal summer JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - Several recent northern hemisphere summer extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013). Recently quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) was proposed as a mechanism that, when certain dynamical conditions are fulfilled, can lead to such high-amplitude wave events. Based on these resonance conditions a detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events in boreal summer months was implemented. With this objective detection scheme we analyzed the occurrence and duration of QRA events and the associated atmospheric flow patterns in 1979-2015 reanalysis data. We detect a total number of 178 events for wave 6, 7 and 8 and find that during roughly one-third of all high amplitude events QRA conditions were met for respective waves. Our analysis reveals a significant shift for quasi-stationary waves 6 and 7 towards high amplitudes during QRA events, lagging first QRA-detection by typically one week. The results provide further evidence for the validity of the QRA hypothesis and its important role in generating high amplitude waves in boreal summer. KW - Rossby waves KW - Wave resonance KW - Atmospheric dynamics KW - Extreme weather Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3399-6 SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 49 SP - 1961 EP - 1979 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kretschmer, Marlene A1 - Coumou, Dim A1 - Agel, Laurie A1 - Barlow, Mathew A1 - Tziperman, Eli A1 - Cohen, Judah T1 - More-Persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society N2 - The extratropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, confining the coldest temperatures at high latitudes. The jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, is predominantly zonal and centered around the pole; however, it does exhibit large variability in wind speed and location. Previous studies showed that a weak stratospheric polar vortex can lead to cold-air outbreaks in the midlatitudes, but the exact relationships and mechanisms are unclear. Particularly, it is unclear whether stratospheric variability has contributed to the observed anomalous cooling trends in midlatitude Eurasia. Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid- to late winter (January and February) has increased, which was accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in midlatitude Eurasia. For this region, 60% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, that is, since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number that increases to almost 80% when El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1 SN - 0003-0007 SN - 1520-0477 VL - 99 IS - 1 SP - 49 EP - 60 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kretschmer, Marlene A1 - Cohen, Judah A1 - Matthias, Vivien A1 - Runge, Jakob A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America JF - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science N2 - The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4 SN - 2397-3722 VL - 1 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Eliseev, Alexey V. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Flechsig, Michael A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model BT - validation and parameter optimization JF - Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0. The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower troposphere mass flux show good results in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the model tends to produce too-weak zonal-mean zonal winds and a too-narrow Hadley circulation. We discuss possible reasons for these model biases as well as planned future model improvements and applications. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-665-2018 SN - 1991-959X SN - 1991-9603 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 665 EP - 679 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Tziperman, Eli A1 - Coumou, Dim A1 - Pfeiffer, Karl A1 - Cohen, Judah T1 - Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions. KW - precipitation anomaly KW - seasonal forecast KW - cluster analysis Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075674 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 44 SP - 12418 EP - 12426 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mann, Michael E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Steinman, Byron A. A1 - Miller, Sonya K. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events BT - The role of quasi-resonant amplification JF - Science Advances N2 - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 SN - 2375-2548 VL - 4 IS - 10 PB - American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Lehmann, Jascha A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Regional Changes in the Mean Position and Variability of the Tropical Edge JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Recent studies indicate that the tropical belt has been expanding during recent decades, which can significantly influence precipitation in subtropical climates. Often the location of the tropical border is identified using the Hadley cell edge (HCE) or the subtropical jet stream (STJ), but most studies concentrated on the zonal-mean state, thereby missing regional impacts. Here we detect longitudinal-resolved trends in STJ cores and HCEs over 1979-2016 in both hemispheres at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies. Besides pronounced regional trend differences in both sign and magnitude, we show that winter HCE and STJ variability increased in the Mediterranean region and decreased over the American and Asian continents. Rainfall variability in these regions changed likewise, and most of those changes can be explained by changes in HCE/STJ variability. This highlights the importance of understanding future tropical belt changes both regionally and in terms of variability. Plain Language Summary We applied a new network-based method to detect motion of the tropical climate border with longitudinal resolution. Depending on the longitudinal position, there are differences in both direction and magnitude of the border motion. In addition, we demonstrate that the rainfall variability is increasing in the Mediterranean region and decreasing over the American and Asian continents, which can be explained by the variability of the tropical belt location. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079911 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 45 IS - 21 SP - 12076 EP - 12084 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Lehmann, Jascha A1 - Peukert, Erik A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical-dynamical atmospheric model JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-1-2019 SN - 1023-5809 SN - 1607-7946 VL - 26 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 12 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mann, Michael E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Steinman, Byron A. A1 - Miller, Sonya K. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events BT - the role of quasi-resonant amplification T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 994 KW - planetary wave resonance KW - northern KW - atmosphere KW - attribution KW - circulation Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 994 ER -