TY  - JOUR
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Cammerer, Holger
A1  - Dobler, Christian
A1  - Lammel, Johannes
A1  - Schoeberl, Fritz
T1  - Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol, Austria
JF  - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
N2  - Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses-with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.
KW  - Flood risk
KW  - Scenarios
KW  - Adaptation to climate change
KW  - Hazard
KW  - Vulnerability
KW  - Lech catchment
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9602-3
SN  - 1381-2386
SN  - 1573-1596
VL  - 21
SP  - 343
EP  - 376
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  -