TY - JOUR A1 - Kuhla, Kilian A1 - Willner, Sven N. A1 - Otto, Christian A1 - Geiger, Tobias A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes JF - Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics N2 - The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences-a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between >7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies-an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts. KW - consecutive disasters KW - economic ripple resonance KW - repercussion resonance KW - weather extremes KW - supply network KW - climate impacts KW - climate change Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pearce, Warren A1 - Özkula, Suay M. A1 - Greene, Amanda K. A1 - Teeling, Lauren A1 - Bansard, Jennifer S. A1 - Omena, Janna Joceli A1 - Rabello, Elaine Teixeira T1 - Visual cross-platform analysis BT - Digital methods to research social media images T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Analysis of social media using digital methods is a flourishing approach. However, the relatively easy availability of data collected via platform application programming interfaces has arguably led to the predominance of single-platform research of social media. Such research has also privileged the role of text in social media analysis, as a form of data that is more readily gathered and searchable than images. In this paper, we challenge both of these prevailing forms of social media research by outlining a methodology for visual cross-platform analysis (VCPA), defined as the study of still and moving images across two or more social media platforms. Our argument contains three steps. First, we argue that cross-platform analysis addresses a gap in research methods in that it acknowledges the interplay between a social phenomenon under investigation and the medium within which it is being researched, thus illuminating the different affordances and cultures of web platforms. Second, we build on the literature on multimodal communication and platform vernacular to provide a rationale for incorporating the visual into cross-platform analysis. Third, we reflect on an experimental cross-platform analysis of images within social media posts (n = 471,033) used to communicate climate change to advance different modes of macro- and meso-levels of analysis that are natively visual: image-text networks, image plots and composite images. We conclude by assessing the research pathways opened up by VCPA, delineating potential contributions to empirical research and theory and the potential impact on practitioners of social media communication. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 199 KW - research methodology KW - visual analysis KW - social media KW - climate change Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515539 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pearce, Warren A1 - Özkula, Suay M. A1 - Greene, Amanda K. A1 - Teeling, Lauren A1 - Bansard, Jennifer S. A1 - Omena, Janna Joceli A1 - Rabello, Elaine Teixeira T1 - Visual cross-platform analysis JF - Information, Communication and Society: digital methods to research social media images N2 - Analysis of social media using digital methods is a flourishing approach. However, the relatively easy availability of data collected via platform application programming interfaces has arguably led to the predominance of single-platform research of social media. Such research has also privileged the role of text in social media analysis, as a form of data that is more readily gathered and searchable than images. In this paper, we challenge both of these prevailing forms of social media research by outlining a methodology for visual cross-platform analysis (VCPA), defined as the study of still and moving images across two or more social media platforms. Our argument contains three steps. First, we argue that cross-platform analysis addresses a gap in research methods in that it acknowledges the interplay between a social phenomenon under investigation and the medium within which it is being researched, thus illuminating the different affordances and cultures of web platforms. Second, we build on the literature on multimodal communication and platform vernacular to provide a rationale for incorporating the visual into cross-platform analysis. Third, we reflect on an experimental cross-platform analysis of images within social media posts (n = 471,033) used to communicate climate change to advance different modes of macro- and meso-levels of analysis that are natively visual: image-text networks, image plots and composite images. We conclude by assessing the research pathways opened up by VCPA, delineating potential contributions to empirical research and theory and the potential impact on practitioners of social media communication. KW - research methodology KW - visual analysis KW - social media KW - climate change Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2018.1486871 SN - 1468-4462 SN - 1369-118X VL - 23 IS - 2 SP - 161 EP - 180 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Palmer, Matthew D. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan A1 - Bagge, Meike A1 - Calvert, Daley A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius A1 - Howard, Tom A1 - Klemann, Volker A1 - Lowe, Jason A. A1 - Roberts, Chris A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A. A1 - Spada, Giorgio T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond JF - Earth's future N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. KW - climate change KW - CMIP5 models KW - RCP scenarios KW - sea-level projections KW - tide gauge observations Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 9 SP - 1 EP - 25 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Palmer, Matthew D. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan A1 - Bagge, Meike A1 - Calvert, Daley A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius A1 - Howard, Tom A1 - Klemann, Volker A1 - Lowe, Jason A. A1 - Roberts, Chris A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A. A1 - Spada, Giorgio T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1353 KW - climate change KW - CMIP5 models KW - RCP scenarios KW - sea-level projections KW - tide gauge observations Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549881 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Drechsler, Martin T1 - Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands BT - the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle. KW - bilinear interpolation KW - climate change KW - dispersal success KW - land use KW - large marsh grasshopper KW - spatially explicit model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9063 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 12 IS - 7 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina A1 - Lange, Stefan A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1430 KW - temperature-related mortality KW - climate change KW - Future projections KW - Germany KW - global mean temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516511 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina A1 - Lange, Stefan A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming JF - Environmental Research N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities. KW - temperature-related mortality KW - climate change KW - Future projections KW - Germany KW - global mean temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447 SN - 0013-9351 SN - 1096-0953 VL - 186 SP - 1 EP - 10 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego, California ER - TY - GEN A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1442 KW - ancient sedimentary DNA KW - Arctic lakes KW - assembly rules KW - climate change KW - diatoms KW - environmental filtering KW - phylogenetic diversity KW - Siberian tree line Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515485 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 5 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA JF - Journal of Biogeography N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming. KW - ancient sedimentary DNA KW - Arctic lakes KW - assembly rules KW - climate change KW - diatoms KW - environmental filtering KW - phylogenetic diversity KW - Siberian tree line Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13786 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 47 IS - 5 SP - 1166 EP - 1179 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER -