TY - THES A1 - Bayona Viveros, Jose T1 - Constructing global stationary seismicity models from the long-term balance of interseismic strain measurements and earthquake-catalog data T1 - Erstellung globaler stationärer Seismizitätsmodelle aus der Langzeitbilanz von interseismischen Dehnungsmessungen und Erdbebenkatalogdaten N2 - One third of the world's population lives in areas where earthquakes causing at least slight damage are frequently expected. Thus, the development and testing of global seismicity models is essential to improving seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-preparedness protocols for effective disaster-risk mitigation. Currently, the availability and quality of geodetic data along plate-boundary regions provides the opportunity to construct global models of plate motion and strain rate, which can be translated into global maps of forecasted seismicity. Moreover, the broad coverage of existing earthquake catalogs facilitates in present-day the calibration and testing of global seismicity models. As a result, modern global seismicity models can integrate two independent factors necessary for physics-based, long-term earthquake forecasting, namely interseismic crustal strain accumulation and sudden lithospheric stress release. In this dissertation, I present the construction of and testing results for two global ensemble seismicity models, aimed at providing mean rates of shallow (0-70 km) earthquake activity for seismic hazard assessment. These models depend on the Subduction Megathrust Earthquake Rate Forecast (SMERF2), a stationary seismicity approach for subduction zones, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional "geodesy-to-seismicity" parameters, such as corner magnitudes, seismogenic thicknesses and subduction dip angles. Specifically, this interface-earthquake model combines geodetic strain rates with instrumentally-recorded seismicity to compute long-term rates of seismic and geodetic moment. Based on this, I derive analytical solutions for seismic coupling and earthquake activity, which provide this earthquake model with the initial abilities to properly forecast interface seismicity. Then, I integrate SMERF2 interface-seismicity estimates with earthquake computations in non-subduction zones provided by the Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics based on the second iteration of the Global Strain Rate Map seismicity approach to construct the global Tectonic Earthquake Activity Model (TEAM). Thus, TEAM is designed to reduce number, and potentially spatial, earthquake inconsistencies of its predecessor tectonic earthquake model during the 2015-2017 period. Also, I combine this new geodetic-based earthquake approach with a global smoothed-seismicity model to create the World Hybrid Earthquake Estimates based on Likelihood scores (WHEEL) model. This updated hybrid model serves as an alternative earthquake-rate approach to the Global Earthquake Activity Rate model for forecasting long-term rates of shallow seismicity everywhere on Earth. Global seismicity models provide scientific hypotheses about when and where earthquakes may occur, and how big they might be. Nonetheless, the veracity of these hypotheses can only be either confirmed or rejected after prospective forecast evaluation. Therefore, I finally test the consistency and relative performance of these global seismicity models with independent observations recorded during the 2014-2019 pseudo-prospective evaluation period. As a result, hybrid earthquake models based on both geodesy and seismicity are the most informative seismicity models during the testing time frame, as they obtain higher information scores than their constituent model components. These results support the combination of interseismic strain measurements with earthquake-catalog data for improved seismicity modeling. However, further prospective evaluations are required to more accurately describe the capacities of these global ensemble seismicity models to forecast longer-term earthquake activity. N2 - Ein Drittel der Weltbevölkerung lebt in Gebieten, in denen häufig Erdbeben mit zumindest geringen Schäden zu erwarten sind. Daher ist die Entwicklung und das Testen globaler Seismizitätsmodelle für verbesserte Schätzungen der Erdbebengefährdung und Planungen zur Vorbereitung auf Erdbeben für eine wirksame Minderung des Katastrophenrisikos von entscheidender Bedeutung. Derzeit bietet die Verfügbarkeit und Qualität geodätischer Daten entlang der Plattengrenzregionen die Gelegenheit, um globale Modelle der Plattenbewegung und der Dehnungsrate zu erstellen, die in globale Karten der prognostizierten Seismizität übersetzt werden können. Darüber hinaus erleichtert die breite Abdeckung bestehender Erdbebenkataloge in der heutigen Zeit die Kalibrierung und das Testen globaler Seismizitätsmodelle. Infolgedessen können moderne globale Seismizitätsmodelle zwei unabhängige Faktoren integrieren, die für eine physikbasierte Langzeit-Erdbebenvorhersage erforderlich sind, die Ansammlung interseismischer Krustenverformungen und die plötzliche Freisetzung von lithosphärischem Stress. In dieser Dissertation stelle ich die Konstruktion und die Testergebnisse für zwei globale Ensemble-Seismizitätsmodelle vor, die darauf abzielen, mittlere Raten der Flachbebenaktivität (0-70 km) für die Bewertung der Erdbebengefährdung bereitzustellen. Diese Modelle hängen von dem Subduction Megathrust Earthquake Rate Forecast (SMERF2) ab, einem stationären Seismizitätsmodell für Subduktionszonen, das auf dem Prinzip der Erhaltung des Moments und der Verwendung regionaler "Geodäsie-zu-SeismizitätParameter wie Corner Magnitudes, seismogene Dicken und Subduktionsneigungswinkel basiert. Insbesondere kombiniert dieses Erdbebenmodell geodätische Dehnungsraten mit instrumentell aufgezeichneter Seismizität, um Langzeitraten sowohl des seismischen als auch des geodätischen Moments zu berechnen. Auf dieser Grundlage leite ich analytische Lösungen für die seismische Kopplung und Erdbebenaktivität ab, um mit diesem Erdbebenmodell, die Subduktionseismizität richtig vorherzusagen. Dann integriere ich SMERF2-Schätzungen an Subduktionsrändern mit Erdbebenberechnungen in Nicht-Subduktionszonen, die von dem Modell ßeismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics based on the second iteration of the Global Strain Rate Mapßur Erstellung des globalen Tectonic Earthquake Activity Model (TEAM) bereitgestellt werden. Daher ist TEAM darauf ausgelegt, die Anzahl und möglicherweise räumliche Vohersageinkonsistenzen seines tektonischen Erdbebenvorgängermodells im Zeitraum 2015-2017 zu reduzieren. Außerdem kombiniere ich dieses neue geodätische Erdbebenmodell mit einem globalen, geglätteten Seismizitätsmodell, um das World Hybrid Earthquake Estimates based on Likelihood Scores (WHEEL)-Modell zu erstellen. Dieses aktualisierte Hybridmodell dient als alternativer Ansatz zum Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1)-Modell zur Vorhersage langfristiger Raten flacher Seismizität überall auf der Erde. Globale Seismizitätsmodelle liefern wissenschaftliche Hypothesen darüber, wann und wo Erdbeben auftreten können und wie groß sie sein können. Die Richtigkeit dieser Hypothesen kann jedoch erst nach prospektiven Tests bestätigt oder abgelehnt werden. Daher teste ich abschließend die Konsistenz und relative Leistung dieser globalen Seismizitätsmodellen gegen unabhängige Beobachtungen, die während des pseudo-prospektiven Evaluierungszeitraums 2014-2019 aufgezeichnet wurden. Hybride Erdbebenmodelle, die sowohl auf Geodäsie als auch auf Seismizität basieren, sind die informativsten Seismizitätsmodelle während des Testzeitraums, da beide höhere Informationswerte als ihre konstituierenden Modellkomponenten erhalten. Diese Ergebnisse unterstützen die Kombination von interseismischen Dehnungsmessungen mit Erdbebenkatalogdaten für eine verbesserte Seismizitätsmodellierung. Es sind jedoch weitere prospektive Tests erforderlich, um die Kapazitäten dieser globalen Ensemble-Seismizitätsmodelle zur Vorhersage längerfristiger Erdbebenaktivitäten genauer zu bewerten. KW - Statistical seismology KW - Earthquake forecasting KW - Global earthquake data KW - Interseismic strain rates KW - Erdbebenvorhersage KW - Globale Erdbebenkatalogdaten KW - Interseismiche Dehnungsraten KW - Statistische Seismologie Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-509270 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Strader, Anne A1 - Schneider, Max A1 - Schorlemmer, Danijel T1 - Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California JF - Geophysical journal international KW - Probabilistic forecasting KW - Statistical methods KW - Earthquake interaction KW - fore-casting KW - and prediction KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx268 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 211 SP - 239 EP - 251 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Passarelli, Luigi A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Maccaferri, Francesco A1 - Mucciarelli, Marco A1 - Roessler, Dirk A1 - Corbi, Fabio A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora T1 - Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy (vol 201, pg 1553, 2015) T2 - Geophysical journal international KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology KW - Dynamics: seismotectonics Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv425 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 204 SP - 365 EP - 365 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Passarelli, Luigi A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Maccaferri, Francesco A1 - Mucciarelli, Marco A1 - Rößler, Dirk A1 - Corbi, Fabio A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora T1 - Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Tectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg-Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M-w = 4.2 and M-w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M-l > 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been 'passive' features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an 'active', largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area. KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology KW - Dynamics: seismotectonics Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv111 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 201 IS - 3 SP - 1553 EP - 1567 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Maghsoudi, Samira A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Kaiser, Diethelm T1 - Identification and characterization of growing large-scale en-echelon fractures in a salt mine JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The spatiotemporal seismicity of acoustic emission (AE) events recorded in the Morsleben salt mine is investigated. Almost a year after backfilling of the cavities from 2003, microevents are distributed with distinctive stripe shapes above cavities at different depth levels. The physical forces driving the creation of these stripes are still unknown. This study aims to find the active stripes and track fracture developments over time by combining two different temporal and spatial clustering techniques into a single methodological approach. Anomalous seismicity parameters values like sharp b-value changes for two active stripes are good indicators to explain possible stress accumulation at the stripe tips. We identify the formation of two new seismicity stripes and show that the AE activities in active clusters are migrated mostly unidirectional to eastward and upward. This indicates that the growth of underlying macrofractures is controlled by the gradient of extensional stress. Studying size distribution characteristic in terms of frequency-magnitude distribution and b-value in active phase and phase with constant seismicity rate show that deviations from the Gutenberg-Richter power law can be explained by the inclusion of different activity phases: (1) the inactive period before the formation of macrofractures, which is characterized by a deficit of larger events (higher b-values) and (2) the period of fracture growth characterized by the occurrence of larger events (smaller b-values). KW - Earthquake source observations KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt443 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 196 IS - 2 SP - 1092 EP - 1105 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shebalin, Peter N. A1 - Narteau, Clement A1 - Zechar, Jeremy Douglas A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains JF - Earth, planets and space N2 - We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance - in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood - than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models. KW - Probabilistic forecasting KW - Earthquake interaction KW - Forecasting and prediction KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-37 SN - 1880-5981 VL - 66 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ben-Zion, Yehuda T1 - Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake. KW - Earthquake dynamics KW - Earthquake interaction KW - forecasting KW - prediction KW - Statistical seismology KW - Seismicity and tectonics Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 171 IS - 11 SP - 2955 EP - 2965 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Maghsoudi, Samira A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Kaiser, Diethelm A1 - Becker, Dirk A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Improving the estimation of detection probability and magnitude of completeness in strongly heterogeneous media, an application to acoustic emission (AE) JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Reliable estimations of magnitude of completeness (M-c) are essential for a correct interpretation of seismic catalogues. The spatial distribution of M-c may be strongly variable and difficult to assess in mining environments, owing to the presence of galleries, cavities, fractured regions, porous media and different mineralogical bodies, as well as in consequence of inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the seismicity. We apply a 3-D modification of the probabilistic magnitude of completeness (PMC) method, which relies on the analysis of network detection capabilities. In our approach, the probability to detect an event depends on its magnitude, source receiver Euclidian distance and source receiver direction. The suggested method is proposed for study of the spatial distribution of the magnitude of completeness in a mining environment and here is applied to a 2-months acoustic emission (AE) data set recorded at the Morsleben salt mine, Germany. The dense seismic network and the large data set, which includes more than one million events, enable a detailed testing of the method. This method is proposed specifically for strongly heterogeneous media. Besides, it can also be used for specific network installations, with sensors with a sensitivity, dependent on the direction of the incoming wave (e.g. some piezoelectric sensors). In absence of strong heterogeneities, the standards PMC approach should be used. We show that the PMC estimations in mines strongly depend on the source receiver direction, and cannot be correctly accounted using a standard PMC approach. However, results can be improved, when adopting the proposed 3-D modification of the PMC method. Our analysis of one central horizontal and vertical section yields a magnitude of completeness of about M-c approximate to 1 (AE magnitude) at the centre of the network, which increases up to M-c approximate to 4 at further distances outside the network; the best detection performance is estimated for a NNE-SSE elongated region, which corresponds to the strike direction of the low-attenuating salt body. Our approach provides us with small-scale details about the capability of sensors to detect an earthquake, which can be linked to the presence of heterogeneities in specific directions. Reduced detection performance in presence of strong structural heterogeneities (cavities) is confirmed by synthetic waveform modelling in heterogeneous media. KW - Seismic attenuation KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt049 SN - 0956-540X VL - 193 IS - 3 SP - 1556 EP - 1569 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Brietzke, Gilbert B. A1 - Hinzen, Klaus-G. T1 - Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results. KW - Earthquake interaction KW - forecasting KW - and prediction KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 195 IS - 1 SP - 684 EP - 694 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -