TY - JOUR A1 - Meli, Mattia A1 - Auclerc, Apolline A1 - Palmqvist, Annemette A1 - Forbes, Valery E. A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Population-level consequences of spatially heterogeneous exposure to heavy metals in soil an individual-based model of springtails JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Contamination of soil with toxic heavy metals poses a major threat to the environment and human health. Anthropogenic sources include smelting of ores, municipal wastes, fertilizers, and pesticides. In assessing soil quality and the environmental and ecological risk of contamination with heavy metals, often homogeneous contamination of the soil is assumed. However, soils are very heterogeneous environments. Consequently, both contamination and the response of soil organisms can be assumed to be heterogeneous. This might have consequences for the exposure of soil organisms and for the extrapolation of risk from the individual to the population level. Therefore, to explore how soil contamination of different spatial heterogeneity affects population dynamics of soil invertebrates, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based model of the springtail, Folsomia candida, a standard test species for ecotoxicological risk assessment. In the model, individuals were assumed to sense and avoid contaminated habitat with a certain probability that depends on contamination level. Avoidance of contaminated areas thus influenced the individuals' movement and feeding, their exposure, and in turn all other biological processes underlying population dynamics. Model rules and parameters were based on data from the literature, or were determined via pattern-oriented modelling. The model correctly predicted several patterns that were not used for model design and calibration. Simulation results showed that the ability of the individuals to detect and avoid the toxicant, combined with the presence of clean habitat patches which act as "refuges", made equilibrium population size due to toxic effects less sensitive to increases in toxicant concentration. Additionally, the level of heterogeneity among patches of soil (i.e. the difference in concentration) was important: at the same average concentration, a homogeneously contaminated scenario was the least favourable habitat, while higher levels of heterogeneity corresponded to higher population growth rate and equilibrium size. Our model can thus be used as a tool for extrapolating from short-term effects at the individual level to long-term effects at the population level under more realistic conditions. It can thus be used to develop and extrapolate from standard ecotoxicological tests in the laboratory to ecological risk assessments. KW - Avoidance KW - Folsomia candida KW - Copper KW - Heterogeneity KW - Pattern-oriented modelling KW - Soil ecology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.010 SN - 0304-3800 VL - 250 IS - 1 SP - 338 EP - 351 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Carus, Jana A1 - Heuner, Maike A1 - Paul, Maike A1 - Schröder, Boris T1 - Which factors and processes drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes?-Insights from development and parameterisation of a mechanistic vegetation model JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Tidal marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. In this study we analysed the processes underlying the spatio-temporal patterns of tidal marsh vegetation in the Elbe estuary and quantified the influence of specific habitat factors by developing and applying the process-based dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac in a pattern-oriented way. In order to develop and parameterise the model, we measured a wide range of biotic and abiotic parameters in two study sites in the Elbe estuary and compared observed and simulated patterns. The final model is able to reproduce the general patterns of vegetation zonation, development and growth and thus helps to understand the underlying processes. By considering the vegetative reproduction of marsh plants as well as abiotic influence factors and intraspecific competition, HaMac allowed to systematically analyse the significance of factors and processes for the dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. Our results show that rhizome growth is the most important process and that flow velocity, inundation height and duration as well as intraspecific competition are the most important habitat factors for explaining spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes. Future applications of HaMac could support the sustainable development and stabilisation of shore zones and thus contribute to the promotion and planning of ecosystem -based shoreline protection measures. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Bolboschoenus maritimus KW - Emergent macrophytes KW - Pattern-oriented modelling KW - Phragmites australis KW - Tidal marsh vegetation KW - Vegetative reproduction Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.08.023 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 363 SP - 122 EP - 136 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wang, Ming A1 - White, Neil A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Hofman, Helen A1 - Doley, David A1 - Thorp, Grant A1 - Cribb, Bronwen A1 - Wherritt, Ella A1 - Han, Liqi A1 - Wilkie, John A1 - Hanan, Jim T1 - Pattern-oriented modelling as a novel way to verify and validate functional-structural plant models BT - a demonstration with the annual growth module of avocado JF - Annals of botany N2 - Background and Aims Functional-structural plant (FSP) models have been widely used to understand the complex interactions between plant architecture and underlying developmental mechanisms. However, to obtain evidence that a model captures these mechanisms correctly, a clear distinction must be made between model outputs used for calibration and thus verification, and outputs used for validation. In pattern-oriented modelling (POM), multiple verification patterns are used as filters for rejecting unrealistic model structures and parameter combinations, while a second, independent set of patterns is used for validation. Key Results After calibration, our model simultaneously reproduced multiple observed architectural patterns. The model then successfully predicted, without further calibration, the validation patterns. The model supports the hypothesis that carbon allocation can be modelled as being dependent on current organ biomass and sink strength of each organ type, and also predicted the observed developmental timing of the leaf sink-source transition stage. KW - Pattern-oriented modelling KW - agent-based model KW - individual-based model KW - functional-structural plant model KW - model analysis KW - model verification KW - model validation KW - ODD (Overview, Design concepts, Details) protocol KW - Persea americana KW - plant architecture KW - carbon allocation KW - L-systems Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcx187 SN - 0305-7364 SN - 1095-8290 VL - 121 IS - 5 SP - 941 EP - 959 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -