TY - JOUR A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Varentsova, Natalia A1 - Erina, Oxana A1 - Sokolov, Dmitriy A1 - Kurochkina, Liubov A1 - Moreydo, Vsevolod T1 - OpenForecast BT - The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia JF - Water : Molecular Diversity Preservation International N2 - The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement. KW - OpenForecast KW - open KW - operational service KW - runoff KW - forecasting KW - Russia Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081546 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 11 IS - 8 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lohse, Karoline A1 - Hildebrandt, Andrea A1 - Hildebrandt, Frauke T1 - Hypotheses in adult-child interactions stimulate children's reasoning and verbalizations JF - Early childhood research quarterly N2 - Adult-child interactions can support children's development and are established as predictors of program quality in early childhood settings. However, the linguistic components that constitute positive interactions have not yet been studied in detail. This study investigates the effects of hypotheses proposed by adults on children's responses in a dyadic picture-book viewing situation. In 2 experiments, adults' use of hypotheses (e.g., "Maybe this is a dwarf's door") was tested against the use of instructive statements ("This is a dwarf's door") and in combination with open questions ("What do you think, why is the door so small?"). In Experiment 1, hypotheses differed from instructions only by the modal marker "maybe". Children's responses to hypotheses were longer and contained more self-generated explanations as compared to responses to instructions. The use of hypotheses also seemed to encourage children to attach more importance to their own explanations. In Experiment 2, combining hypotheses with open-ended why questions elicited longer responses but no more self-generated explanations in children than openended questions alone. Results indicate that subtle differences in adults' utterances can directly influence children's reasoning and children's contributions to dialogues. KW - adult-child interactions KW - sustained shared thinking KW - hypotheses KW - open KW - questions Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecresq.2021.09.014 SN - 0885-2006 VL - 58 SP - 254 EP - 263 PB - Elsevier CY - New York ER -