TY  - JOUR
A1  - Shprits, Yuri Y.
A1  - Vasile, Ruggero
A1  - Zhelayskaya, Irina S.
T1  - Nowcasting and Predicting the Kp Index Using Historical Values and Real-Time Observations
JF  - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications
N2  - Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions.
KW  - Kp index
KW  - geomagnetic activity
KW  - empirical prediction
KW  - solar wind
KW  - forecast
KW  - AI
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002141
SN  - 1542-7390
VL  - 17
IS  - 8
SP  - 1219
EP  - 1229
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Richter, Gudrun
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Dahm, Torsten
A1  - Zöller, Gert
T1  - Stress-based, statistical modeling of the induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field
BT  - the Netherlands
JF  - Environmental earth sciences
N2  - Groningen is the largest onshore gas field under production in Europe. The pressure depletion of the gas field started in 1963. In 1991, the first induced micro-earthquakes have been located at reservoir level with increasing rates in the following decades. Most of these events are of magnitude less than 2.0 and cannot be felt. However, maximum observed magnitudes continuously increased over the years until the largest, significant event with ML=3.6 was recorded in 2014, which finally led to the decision to reduce the production. This causal sequence displays the crucial role of understanding and modeling the relation between production and induced seismicity for economic planing and hazard assessment. Here we test whether the induced seismicity related to gas exploration can be modeled by the statistical response of fault networks with rate-and-state-dependent frictional behavior. We use the long and complete local seismic catalog and additionally detailed information on production-induced changes at the reservoir level to test different seismicity models. Both the changes of the fluid pressure and of the reservoir compaction are tested as input to approximate the Coulomb stress changes. We find that the rate-and-state model with a constant tectonic background seismicity rate can reproduce the observed long delay of the seismicity onset. In contrast, so-called Coulomb failure models with instantaneous earthquake nucleation need to assume that all faults are initially far from a critical state of stress to explain the delay. Our rate-and-state model based on the fluid pore pressure fits the spatiotemporal pattern of the seismicity best, where the fit further improves by taking the fault density and orientation into account. Despite its simplicity with only three free parameters, the rate-and-state model can reproduce the main statistical features of the observed activity.
KW  - induced seismicity
KW  - modeling
KW  - statistical seismology
KW  - forecast
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-08941-4
SN  - 1866-6280
SN  - 1866-6299
VL  - 79
IS  - 11
PB  - Springer
CY  - New York
ER  -