TY  - JOUR
A1  - Köhn-Reich, Lisei
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
T1  - Dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon
BT  - past and present skill
JF  - International Journal of Climatology
N2  - Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.
KW  - correlation skill
KW  - dynamical seasonal prediction
KW  - Indian summer monsoon
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6039
SN  - 0899-8418
SN  - 1097-0088
VL  - 39
IS  - 8
SP  - 3574
EP  - 3581
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -