TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Brietzke, Gilbert B.
A1  - Hinzen, Klaus-G.
T1  - Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany
JF  - Geophysical journal international
N2  - Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results.
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Seismicity and tectonics
KW  - Statistical seismology
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 195
IS  - 1
SP  - 684
EP  - 694
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Ben-Zion, Yehuda
T1  - Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data
JF  - Pure and applied geophysics
N2  - We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.
KW  - Earthquake dynamics
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
KW  - Seismicity and tectonics
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1
SN  - 0033-4553
SN  - 1420-9136
VL  - 171
IS  - 11
SP  - 2955
EP  - 2965
PB  - Springer
CY  - Basel
ER  -