TY - JOUR A1 - Arboleda-Zapata, Mauricio A1 - Guillemoteau, Julien A1 - Tronicke, Jens T1 - A comprehensive workflow to analyze ensembles of globally inverted 2D electrical resistivity models JF - Journal of applied geophysics N2 - Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) aims at imaging the subsurface resistivity distribution and provides valuable information for different geological, engineering, and hydrological applications. To obtain a subsurface resistivity model from measured apparent resistivities, stochastic or deterministic inversion procedures may be employed. Typically, the inversion of ERT data results in non-unique solutions; i.e., an ensemble of different models explains the measured data equally well. In this study, we perform inference analysis of model ensembles generated using a well-established global inversion approach to assess uncertainties related to the nonuniqueness of the inverse problem. Our interpretation strategy starts by establishing model selection criteria based on different statistical descriptors calculated from the data residuals. Then, we perform cluster analysis considering the inverted resistivity models and the corresponding data residuals. Finally, we evaluate model uncertainties and residual distributions for each cluster. To illustrate the potential of our approach, we use a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to obtain an ensemble of 2D layer-based resistivity models from a synthetic data example and a field data set collected in Loon-Plage, France. Our strategy performs well for both synthetic and field data and allows us to extract different plausible model scenarios with their associated uncertainties and data residual distributions. Although we demonstrate our workflow using 2D ERT data and a PSObased inversion approach, the proposed strategy is general and can be adapted to analyze model ensembles generated from other kinds of geophysical data and using different global inversion approaches. KW - Near-surface geophysics KW - Electrical resistivity tomography KW - Non-uniqueness KW - Global inversion KW - Particle swarm optimization KW - Ensemble KW - analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jappgeo.2021.104512 SN - 0926-9851 SN - 1879-1859 VL - 196 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bürger, Gerd T1 - A counterexample to decomposing climate shifts and trends by weather types JF - International Journal of Climatology N2 - The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used. KW - analysis KW - climate KW - statistical methods Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5519 SN - 0899-8418 SN - 1097-0088 VL - 38 IS - 9 SP - 3732 EP - 3735 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Eid-Sabbagh, Rami-Habib T1 - Business process architectures BT - concepts, formalism, and analysis N2 - Business Process Management has become an integral part of modern organizations in the private and public sector for improving their operations. In the course of Business Process Management efforts, companies and organizations assemble large process model repositories with many hundreds and thousands of business process models bearing a large amount of information. With the advent of large business process model collections, new challenges arise as structuring and managing a large amount of process models, their maintenance, and their quality assurance. This is covered by business process architectures that have been introduced for organizing and structuring business process model collections. A variety of business process architecture approaches have been proposed that align business processes along aspects of interest, e. g., goals, functions, or objects. They provide a high level categorization of single processes ignoring their interdependencies, thus hiding valuable information. The production of goods or the delivery of services are often realized by a complex system of interdependent business processes. Hence, taking a holistic view at business processes interdependencies becomes a major necessity to organize, analyze, and assess the impact of their re-/design. Visualizing business processes interdependencies reveals hidden and implicit information from a process model collection. In this thesis, we present a novel Business Process Architecture approach for representing and analyzing business process interdependencies on an abstract level. We propose a formal definition of our Business Process Architecture approach, design correctness criteria, and develop analysis techniques for assessing their quality. We describe a methodology for applying our Business Process Architecture approach top-down and bottom-up. This includes techniques for Business Process Architecture extraction from, and decomposition to process models while considering consistency issues between business process architecture and process model level. Using our extraction algorithm, we present a novel technique to identify and visualize data interdependencies in Business Process Data Architectures. Our Business Process Architecture approach provides business process experts,managers, and other users of a process model collection with an overview that allows reasoning about a large set of process models, understanding, and analyzing their interdependencies in a facilitated way. In this regard we evaluated our Business Process Architecture approach in an experiment and provide implementations of selected techniques. N2 - Geschäftsprozessmanagement nimmt heutzutage eine zentrale Rolle zur Verbesserung von Geschäftsabläufen in Organisationen des öffentlichen und privaten Sektors ein. Im Laufe von Geschäftsprozessmanagementprojekten entstehen große Prozessmodellsammlungen mit hunderten und tausenden Prozessmodellen, die vielfältige Informationen enthalten. Mit der Entstehung großer Prozessmodellsammlungen, entstehen neue Herausforderungen. Diese beinhalten die Strukturierung und Organisation vieler Prozessmodelle, ihre Pflege und Aktualisierung, sowie ihre Qualitätssicherung. Mit diesen Herausforderungen befassen sich Geschäftsprozessarchitekturen. Viele der aktuellen Geschäftsprozessarchitekturen ordnen Geschäftsprozesse nach bestimmen Aspekten von Interesse, zum Beispiel, nach Zielen, Funktionen, oder Geschäftsobjekten. Diese Herangehensweisen bieten eine sehr abstrakte Kategorisierung von einzelnen Geschäftsprozessen, wobei sie wichtige Abhängigkeiten zwischen Prozessen ignorieren und so wertvolle Informationen verbergen. Die Produktion von Waren und das Anbieten von Dienstleistungen bilden ein komplexes System untereinander abhängiger Geschäftsprozesse. Diesbezüglich ist es unabdingbar eine ganzheitliche Sicht auf Geschäftsprozesse und ihre Abhängigkeiten zu schaffen, um die Geschäftsprozesse zu organisieren, zu analysieren und zu optimieren. Die Darstellung von Geschäftsprozessabhängigkeiten zeigt versteckte und implizite Informationen auf, die bisher in Geschäftsprozesssammlungen verborgen blieben. In dieser Arbeit stellen wir eine Geschäftsprozessarchitekturmethodik vor, die es erlaubt Geschäftsprozessabhänigigkeiten auf einer abstrakten Ebene darzustellen und zu analysieren. Wir führen eine formale Definition unserer Geschäftsprozessarchitektur und entsprechende Korrektheitskriterien ein. Darauf aufbauend stellen wir Analysetechniken für unsere Geschäftsprozessarchitektur vor. In einem Anwendungsrahmenwerk eläutern wir die top-down und bottomup Anwendung unserer Geschäftsprozessarchitekturmethodik. Dies beinhaltet die Beschreibung von Algorithmen zur Extraktion von Geschäftsprozessarchitekturen und zur Generierung von Prozessmodellen aus Geschäftsprozessarchitekturen, die die Konsistenz zwischen den Elementen auf Prozessmodellebene und Geschäftsprozessarchitekturebene gewährleisten. Aufbauend auf dem Extraktionsalgorithmus, stellen wir eine neue Technik zur Identifizierung, Extraktion, und Visualisierung von versteckten Datenabhängigkeiten zwischen Prozessmodellen in Geschäftsprozessdatenarchitekturen vor. Unsere Arbeit stellt Geschäftsprozessexperten, Manager, und Nutzern einer Geschäftsprozessmodellsammlung eine Methodik zur Verfügung, die es ihnen ermöglicht und vereinfacht, eine Übersicht über Prozesse und ihren Abhängigkeiten zu erstellen, diese zu verstehen und zu analysieren. Diesbezüglich haben wir unsere Geschäftsprozessarchitekturmethodik in einem empirischen Experiment auf ihre Anwendbarkeit und Effektivität untersucht und zur weiteren Evaluierung ausgewählte Algorithmen implementiert. KW - business process architecture KW - bpm KW - formalism KW - analysis KW - abstraction KW - Prozessarchitektur KW - Geschäftsprozessmanagement KW - Analyse KW - Abstraktion Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-79719 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Belolipetsky, Pavel V. A1 - Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. A1 - Degermendzhy, Andrey G. A1 - DeAngelis, Donald L. A1 - Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Fragoso Jr., Carlos Ruberto A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Genova, Svetlana N. A1 - Gulati, Ramesh D. A1 - Håkanson, Lars A1 - Hamilton, David P. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - ‘t Hoen, Jochem A1 - Hülsmann, Stephan A1 - Los, F. Hans A1 - Makler-Pick, Vardit A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Prokopkin, Igor G. A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Tominaga, Koji A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Nes, Egbert H. A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Janse, Jan H. T1 - Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1326 KW - aquatic KW - food web dynamics KW - plankton KW - nutrients KW - spatial KW - lake KW - freshwater KW - marine KW - community KW - population KW - hydrology KW - eutrophication KW - global change KW - climate warming KW - fisheries KW - biodiversity KW - management KW - mitigation KW - adaptive processes KW - non-linear dynamics KW - analysis KW - bifurcation KW - understanding KW - prediction KW - model limitations KW - model integration Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429839 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1326 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Belolipetsky, Pavel V. A1 - Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. A1 - Degermendzhy, Andrey G. A1 - DeAngelis, Donald L. A1 - Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Fragoso Jr, Carlos Ruberto A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Genova, Svetlana N. A1 - Gulati, Ramesh D. A1 - Håkanson, Lars A1 - Hamilton, David P. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - ‘t Hoen, Jochem A1 - Hülsmann, Stephan A1 - Los, F. Hans A1 - Makler-Pick, Vardit A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Prokopkin, Igor G. A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Tominaga, Koji A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Nes, Egbert H. A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Janse, Jan H. T1 - Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches JF - Aquatic ecology N2 - A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models. KW - aquatic KW - food web dynamics KW - plankton KW - nutrients KW - spatial KW - lake KW - freshwater KW - marine KW - community KW - population KW - hydrology KW - eutrophication KW - global change KW - climate warming KW - fisheries KW - biodiversity KW - management KW - mitigation KW - adaptive processes KW - non-linear dynamics KW - analysis KW - bifurcation KW - understanding KW - prediction KW - model limitations KW - model integration Y1 - 2010 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-010-9339-3 SN - 1573-5125 SN - 1386-2588 VL - 44 SP - 633 EP - 667 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Verma, Meetu A1 - Matijevič, Gal A1 - Denker, Carsten A1 - Diercke, Andrea A1 - Dineva, Ekaterina Ivanova A1 - Balthasar, Horst A1 - Kamlah, Robert A1 - Kontogiannis, Ioannis A1 - Kuckein, Christoph A1 - Pal, Partha S. T1 - Classification of high-resolution Solar H alpha spectra using t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics N2 - The H alpha spectral line is a well-studied absorption line revealing properties of the highly structured and dynamic solar chromosphere. Typical features with distinct spectral signatures in H alpha include filaments and prominences, bright active-region plages, superpenumbrae around sunspots, surges, flares, Ellerman bombs, filigree, and mottles and rosettes, among others. This study is based on high-spectral resolution H alpha spectra obtained with the Echelle spectrograph of the Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT) located at Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, Spain. The t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) is a machine-learning algorithm, which is used for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. In this application, it projects H alpha spectra onto a two-dimensional map, where it becomes possible to classify the spectra according to results of cloud model (CM) inversions. The CM parameters optical depth, Doppler width, line-of-sight velocity, and source function describe properties of the cloud material. Initial results of t-SNE indicate its strong discriminatory power to separate quiet-Sun and plage profiles from those that are suitable for CM inversions. In addition, a detailed study of various t-SNE parameters is conducted, the impact of seeing conditions on the classification is assessed, results for various types of input data are compared, and the identified clusters are linked to chromospheric features. Although t-SNE proves to be efficient in clustering high-dimensional data, human inference is required at each step to interpret the results. This exploratory study provides a framework and ideas on how to tailor a classification scheme toward specific spectral data and science questions. KW - Solar chromosphere KW - Spectroscopy KW - Radiative transfer KW - Astronomy data KW - analysis KW - Astronomy databases KW - Astrostatistics tools Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/abcd95 SN - 1538-4357 VL - 907 IS - 1 PB - Institute of Physics Publ. CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Schneider, Lisa A1 - Güntner, Andreas T1 - Comparative analysis of throughfall observations in six different forest stands BT - Influence of seasons, rainfall- and stand characteristics JF - Hydrological processes N2 - Throughfall, that is, the fraction of rainfall that passes through the forest canopy, is strongly influenced by rainfall and forest stand characteristics which are in turn both subject to seasonal dynamics. Disentangling the complex interplay of these controls is challenging, and only possible with long-term monitoring and a large number of throughfall events measured in parallel at different forest stands. We therefore based our analysis on 346 rainfall events across six different forest stands at the long-term terrestrial environmental observatory TERENO Northeast Germany. These forest stands included pure stands of beech, pine and young pine, and mixed stands of oak-beech, pine-beech and pine-oak-beech. Throughfall was overall relatively low, with 54-68% of incident rainfall in summer. Based on the large number of events it was possible to not only investigate mean or cumulative throughfall but also its statistical distribution. The distributions of throughfall fractions show distinct differences between the three types of forest stands (deciduous, mixed and pine). The distributions of the deciduous stands have a pronounced peak at low throughfall fractions and a secondary peak at high fractions in summer, as well as a pronounced peak at higher throughfall fractions in winter. Interestingly, the mixed stands behave like deciduous stands in summer and like pine stands in winter: their summer distributions are similar to the deciduous stands but the winter peak at high throughfall fractions is much less pronounced. The seasonal comparison further revealed that the wooden components and the leaves behaved differently in their throughfall response to incident rainfall, especially at higher rainfall intensities. These results are of interest for estimating forest water budgets and in the context of hydrological and land surface modelling where poor simulation of throughfall would adversely impact estimates of evaporative recycling and water availability for vegetation and runoff. KW - forest hydrology KW - forest stand characteristics KW - interception KW - leaf area KW - index KW - rainfall characteristics KW - seasonal effects KW - stratified event KW - analysis KW - throughfall KW - tree species effects Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14461 SN - 0885-6087 SN - 1099-1085 VL - 36 IS - 3 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thayumanasundaram, Savitha A1 - Raman Venkatesan, Thulasinath A1 - Ousset, Aymeric A1 - Van Hollebeke, Kim A1 - Aerts, Luc A1 - Wubbenhorst, Michael A1 - Van den Mooter, Guy T1 - Complementarity of mDSC, DMA, and DRS Techniques in the Study of T-g and Sub-T-g Transitions in Amorphous Solids BT - PVPVA, Indomethacin, and Amorphous Solid Dispersions Based on Indomethacin/PVPVA JF - Molecular pharmaceutics N2 - Recently, glasses, a subset of amorphous solids, have gained attention in various fields, such as polymer chemistry, optical fibers, and pharmaceuticals. One of their characteristic features, the glass transition temperature (T-g) which is absent in 100% crystalline materials, influences several material properties, such as free volume, enthalpy, viscosity, thermodynamic transitions, molecular motions, physical stability, mechanical properties, etc. In addition to T-g, there may be several other temperaturedependent transitions known as sub-T-g transitions (or beta-, gamma-, and delta-relaxations) which are identified by specific analytical techniques. The study of T-g and sub-T-g transitions occurring in amorphous solids has gained much attention because of its importance in understanding molecular kinetics, and it requires the combination of conventional and novel characterization techniques. In the present study, three different analytical techniques [modulated differential scanning calorimetry (mDSC), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), and dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (DRS)] were used to perform comprehensive qualitative/quantitative characterization of molecular relaxations, miscibility, and molecular interactions present in an amorphous polymer (PVPVA), a model drug (indomethacin, IND), and IND/PVPVA-based amorphous solid dispersions (ASDs). This is the first ever reported DMA study on PVPVA in its powder form, which avoids the contribution of solvent to the mechanical properties when a selfstanding polymer film is used. A good correlation between the techniques in determining the T-g value of PVPVA, IND, and IND/ PVPVA-based ASDs is established, and the negligible difference (within 10 degrees C) is attributed to the different material properties assessed in each technique. However, the overall T-g behavior, the decrease in T-g with increase in drug loading in ASDs, is universally observed in all the above-mentioned techniques, which reveals their complementarity. DMA and DRS techniques are used to study the different sub-T-g transitions present in PVPVA, amorphous IND, and IND/PVPVA-based ASDs because these transitions are normally too weak or too broad for mDSC to detect. For IND/PVPVA-based ASDs, both techniques show a shift of sub-T-g transitions (or secondary relaxation peaks) toward the high-temperature region from -140 to -45 degrees C. Thus, this paper outlines the usage of different solid-state characterization techniques in understanding the different molecular dynamics present in the polymer, drug, and their interactions in ASDs with the integrated information obtained from individual techniques. KW - amorphous solids KW - PVPVA KW - indomethacin KW - ASDs KW - dynamic mechanical KW - analysis KW - dielectric relaxation spectroscopy KW - sub-T-g relaxations KW - relaxation dynamics Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.molpharmaceut.2c00123 SN - 1543-8384 SN - 1543-8392 PB - American Chemical Society CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jung, Jana T1 - Does youth matter? BT - long-term effects of youth characteristics on the diversity of partnership trajectories JF - Longitudinal and life course studies : LLCS ; international journal / Society for Longitudinal and Life Course Studies N2 - Previous research has mainly concentrated on the study of certain transitions and the influence of economic and socio-structural factors on partnership status. From a life course perspective, it remains unclear how factors anchored in youth are related to the diversity of partnership biographies. Arguing that individuals act and behave based on prior experiences and resources, I analyse how personal and social resources as well as socio-demographic characteristics influence the turbulence of longitudinal partnership trajectories. Using a longitudinal dataset from the German LifE Study, I examine partnership histories from the ages 16 to 45. The results suggest that in addition to the influence of an individual's socio-demographic placement (for example, religious commitment and regional living conditions), personal and social resources anchored in youth also have a long-term effect on the diversity of partnership trajectories. This article shows that women are influenced by their attitudes towards marriage and family, while men are influenced by their attitudes towards their careers. KW - partnership trajectories KW - youth characteristics KW - life course KW - sequence KW - analysis KW - regression tree Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1332/175795920X15980339169308 SN - 1757-9597 VL - 12 IS - 2 SP - 201 EP - 225 PB - Longview CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Arguello de Souza, Felipe Augusto A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro A1 - Sarmento Buarque, Ana Carolina A1 - Taffarello, Denise A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario T1 - Droughts in São Paulo BT - challenges and lessons for a water-adaptive society JF - Urban water journal N2 - Literature has suggested that droughts and societies are mutually shaped and, therefore, both require a better understanding of their coevolution on risk reduction and water adaptation. Although the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region drew attention because of the 2013-2015 drought, this was not the first event. This paper revisits this event and the 1985-1986 drought to compare the evolution of drought risk management aspects. Documents and hydrological records are analyzed to evaluate the hazard intensity, preparedness, exposure, vulnerability, responses, and mitigation aspects of both events. Although the hazard intensity and exposure of the latter event were larger than the former one, the policy implementation delay and the dependency of service areas in a single reservoir exposed the region to higher vulnerability. In addition to the structural and non-structural tools implemented just after the events, this work raises the possibility of rainwater reuse for reducing the stress in reservoirs. KW - droughts KW - urban water supply KW - water crisis KW - drought risk KW - paired event KW - analysis KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2047735 SN - 1573-062X SN - 1744-9006 VL - 20 IS - 10 SP - 1682 EP - 1694 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London [u.a.] ER -