TY - JOUR
A1 - Pearce, Warren
A1 - Özkula, Suay M.
A1 - Greene, Amanda K.
A1 - Teeling, Lauren
A1 - Bansard, Jennifer S.
A1 - Omena, Janna Joceli
A1 - Rabello, Elaine Teixeira
T1 - Visual cross-platform analysis
JF - Information, Communication and Society: digital methods to research social media images
N2 - Analysis of social media using digital methods is a flourishing approach. However, the relatively easy availability of data collected via platform application programming interfaces has arguably led to the predominance of single-platform research of social media. Such research has also privileged the role of text in social media analysis, as a form of data that is more readily gathered and searchable than images. In this paper, we challenge both of these prevailing forms of social media research by outlining a methodology for visual cross-platform analysis (VCPA), defined as the study of still and moving images across two or more social media platforms. Our argument contains three steps. First, we argue that cross-platform analysis addresses a gap in research methods in that it acknowledges the interplay between a social phenomenon under investigation and the medium within which it is being researched, thus illuminating the different affordances and cultures of web platforms. Second, we build on the literature on multimodal communication and platform vernacular to provide a rationale for incorporating the visual into cross-platform analysis. Third, we reflect on an experimental cross-platform analysis of images within social media posts (n = 471,033) used to communicate climate change to advance different modes of macro- and meso-levels of analysis that are natively visual: image-text networks, image plots and composite images. We conclude by assessing the research pathways opened up by VCPA, delineating potential contributions to empirical research and theory and the potential impact on practitioners of social media communication.
KW - research methodology
KW - visual analysis
KW - social media
KW - climate change
Y1 - 2018
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2018.1486871
SN - 1468-4462
SN - 1369-118X
VL - 23
IS - 2
SP - 161
EP - 180
PB - Routledge
CY - London
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Palmer, Matthew D.
A1 - Gregory, Jonathan
A1 - Bagge, Meike
A1 - Calvert, Daley
A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius
A1 - Howard, Tom
A1 - Klemann, Volker
A1 - Lowe, Jason A.
A1 - Roberts, Chris
A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A.
A1 - Spada, Giorgio
T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond
JF - Earth's future
N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.
KW - climate change
KW - CMIP5 models
KW - RCP scenarios
KW - sea-level projections
KW - tide gauge observations
Y1 - 2020
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413
SN - 2328-4277
VL - 8
IS - 9
SP - 1
EP - 25
PB - Wiley-Blackwell
CY - Hoboken
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Leins, Johannes A.
A1 - Grimm, Volker
A1 - Drechsler, Martin
T1 - Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands
BT - the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change
JF - Ecology and evolution
N2 - In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.
KW - bilinear interpolation
KW - climate change
KW - dispersal success
KW - land use
KW - large marsh grasshopper
KW - spatially explicit model
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9063
SN - 2045-7758
VL - 12
IS - 7
PB - Wiley
CY - Hoboken
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Huber, Veronika
A1 - Krummenauer, Linda
A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina
A1 - Lange, Stefan
A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio
A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
A1 - Frieler, Katja
T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
JF - Environmental Research
N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
KW - temperature-related mortality
KW - climate change
KW - Future projections
KW - Germany
KW - global mean temperature
Y1 - 2020
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447
SN - 0013-9351
SN - 1096-0953
VL - 186
SP - 1
EP - 10
PB - Elsevier
CY - San Diego, California
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie
A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia
A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera
BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA
JF - Journal of Biogeography
N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.
KW - ancient sedimentary DNA
KW - Arctic lakes
KW - assembly rules
KW - climate change
KW - diatoms
KW - environmental filtering
KW - phylogenetic diversity
KW - Siberian tree line
Y1 - 2020
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13786
SN - 0305-0270
SN - 1365-2699
VL - 47
IS - 5
SP - 1166
EP - 1179
PB - Wiley-Blackwell
CY - Oxford
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Hickmann, Thomas
A1 - Widerberg, Oscar
A1 - Lederer, Markus
A1 - Pattberg, Philipp H.
T1 - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat as an orchestrator in global climate policymaking
JF - International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration
N2 - Scholars have recently devoted increasing attention to the role and function of international bureaucracies in global policymaking. Some of them contend that international public officials have gained significant political influence in various policy fields. Compared to other international bureaucracies, the political leeway of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been considered rather limited. Due to the specific problem structure of the policy domain of climate change, national governments endowed this intergovernmental treaty secretariat with a relatively narrow mandate. However, this article argues that in the past few years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat has gradually loosened its straitjacket and expanded its original spectrum of activity by engaging different sub-national and non-state actors into a policy dialogue using facilitative orchestration as a mode of governance. The present article explores the recent evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and investigates the way in which it initiates, guides, broadens and strengthens sub-national and non-state climate actions to achieve progress in the international climate negotiations.
Points for practitioners
The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has lately adopted new roles and functions in global climate policymaking. While previously seen as a rather technocratic body that, first and foremost, serves national governments, the Climate Secretariat increasingly interacts with sub-national governments, civil society organizations and private companies to push the global response to climate change forward. We contend that the Climate Secretariat can contribute to global climate policymaking by coordinating and steering the initiatives of non-nation-state actors towards coherence and good practice.
KW - climate change
KW - environmental policymaking
KW - intergovernmental relations
KW - international bureaucracies
KW - sub-national and non-state actors
Y1 - 2021
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852319840425
SN - 0020-8523
SN - 1461-7226
VL - 87
IS - 1
SP - 21
EP - 38
PB - Sage
CY - Los Angeles, Calif. [u.a.]
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro
A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1 - Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil
JF - Urban water journal
N2 - Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.
KW - Business interruption cost
KW - water utility company
KW - hydrological
KW - droughts
KW - water security
KW - urban water
KW - climate change
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564
SN - 1573-062X
SN - 1744-9006
PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY - Abingdon
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Warszawski, Lila
A1 - Kriegler, Elmar
A1 - Lenton, Timothy M.
A1 - Gaffney, Owen
A1 - Jacob, Daniela
A1 - Klingenfeld, Daniel
A1 - Koide, Ryu
A1 - Costa, María Máñez
A1 - Messner, Dirk
A1 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
A1 - Schlosser, Peter
A1 - Takeuchi, Kazuhiko
A1 - van der Leeuw, Sander
A1 - Whiteman, Gail
A1 - Rockström, Johan
T1 - All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C
BT - a scenario appraisal
JF - Environmental research letters
N2 - Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
KW - climate change
KW - emissions scenarios
KW - 1.5 ◦C
KW - negative emissions
Y1 - 2021
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec
SN - 1748-9326
N1 - Corrigendum: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbf6a
VL - 16
IS - 6
PB - IOP Publishing
CY - Bristol
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Böhnke, Denise
A1 - Krehl, Alice
A1 - Moermann, Kai
A1 - Volk, Rebekka
A1 - Lützkendorf, Thomas
A1 - Naber, Elias
A1 - Becker, Ronja
A1 - Norra, Stefan
T1 - Mapping urban green and its ecosystem services at microscale-a methodological approach for climate adaptation and biodiversity
JF - Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
N2 - The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed.
KW - climate adaptation
KW - urban green
KW - mapping
KW - ecosystem service cascade
KW - model
KW - surface type-function-concept
KW - planning indicators
KW - city district
KW - level
KW - urban planning practice
KW - climate change
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159029
SN - 2071-1050
VL - 14
IS - 15
PB - MDPI
CY - Basel
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Sedova, Barbora
A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias
A1 - Mendelsohn, Robert
T1 - Distributional impacts of weather and climate in rural India
JF - Economics of disasters and climate change
N2 - Climate-related costs and benefits may not be evenly distributed across the population. We study distributional implications of seasonal weather and climate on within-country inequality in rural India. Utilizing a first difference approach, we find that the poor are more sensitive to weather variations than the non-poor. The poor respond more strongly to (seasonal) temperature changes: negatively in the (warm) spring season, more positively in the (cold) rabi season. Less precipitation is harmful to the poor in the monsoon kharif season and beneficial in the winter and spring seasons. We show that adverse weather aggravates inequality by reducing consumption of the poor farming households. Future global warming predicted under RCP8.5 is likely to exacerbate these effects, reducing consumption of poor farming households by one third until the year 2100. We also find inequality in consumption across seasons with higher consumption during the harvest and lower consumption during the sowing seasons.
KW - climate change
KW - weather
KW - inequality
KW - household analysis
KW - India
KW - econometrics
Y1 - 2019
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-019-00051-1
SN - 2511-1280
SN - 2511-1299
VL - 4
IS - 1
SP - 5
EP - 44
PB - Springer
CY - Cham
ER -