TY - JOUR A1 - Li, Wenjia A1 - Tian, Fang A1 - Rudaya, Natalya A. A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Cao, Xianyong T1 - Pollen-based holocene thawing-history of permafrost in Northern Asia and its potential impacts on climate change JF - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution N2 - As the recent permafrost thawing of northern Asia proceeds due to anthropogenic climate change, precise and detailed palaeoecological records from past warm periods are essential to anticipate the extent of future permafrost variations. Here, based on the modern relationship between permafrost and vegetation (represented by pollen assemblages), we trained a Random Forest model using pollen and permafrost data and verified its reliability to reconstruct the history of permafrost in northern Asia during the Holocene. An early Holocene (12-8 cal ka BP) strong thawing trend, a middle-to-late Holocene (8-2 cal ka BP) relatively slow thawing trend, and a late Holocene freezing trend of permafrost in northern Asia are consistent with climatic proxies such as summer solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. The extensive distribution of permafrost in northern Asia inhibited the spread of evergreen coniferous trees during the early Holocene warming and might have decelerated the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by altering hydrological processes and albedo. Based on these findings, we suggest that studies of the EASM should consider more the state of permafrost and vegetation in northern Asia, which are often overlooked and may have a profound impact on climate change in this region. KW - pollen KW - Random Forest KW - Siberia KW - East Asian summer monsoon KW - permafrost Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.894471 SN - 2296-701X VL - 10 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huang, Sichao A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen R. A1 - Liu, Sisi A1 - Courtin, Jeremy A1 - Andreev, Andrej A. A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila. A. A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Plant sedimentary ancient DNA from Far East Russia covering the last 28,000 years reveals different assembly rules in cold and warm climates JF - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution N2 - Woody plants are expanding into the Arctic in response to the warming climate. The impact on arctic plant communities is not well understood due to the limited knowledge about plant assembly rules. Records of past plant diversity over long time series are rare. Here, we applied sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding targeting the P6 loop of the chloroplast trnL gene to a sediment record from Lake Ilirney (central Chukotka, Far Eastern Russia) covering the last 28 thousand years. Our results show that forb-rich steppe-tundra and dwarf-shrub tundra dominated during the cold climate before 14 ka, while deciduous erect-shrub tundra was abundant during the warm period since 14 ka. Larix invasion during the late Holocene substantially lagged behind the likely warmest period between 10 and 6 ka, where the vegetation biomass could be highest. We reveal highest richness during 28-23 ka and a second richness peak during 13-9 ka, with both periods being accompanied by low relative abundance of shrubs. During the cold period before 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting low genetic divergence in the assemblages despite the great number of species. This probably originates from environmental filtering along with niche differentiation due to limited resources under harsh environmental conditions. In contrast, during the warmer period after 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed. This results from a high number of species which were found to harbor high genetic divergence, likely originating from an erratic recruitment process in the course of warming. Some of our evidence may be of relevance for inferring future arctic plant assembly rules and diversity changes. By analogy to the past, we expect a lagged response of tree invasion. Plant richness might overshoot in the short term; in the long-term, however, the ongoing expansion of deciduous shrubs will eventually result in a phylogenetically more diverse community. KW - sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) KW - metabarcoding KW - phylogenetic and taxonomic plant diversity KW - Arctic Russia KW - Siberia KW - holocene KW - glacial KW - treeline Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.763747 SN - 2296-701X VL - 9 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stuenzi, Simone Maria A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Boike, Julia A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Oehme, Alexander A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila A. A1 - Westermann, Sebastian A1 - Langer, Moritz T1 - Thermohydrological impact of forest disturbances on ecosystem-protected permafrost JF - Journal of geophysical research : Biogeosciences N2 - Boreal forests cover over half of the global permafrost area and protect underlying permafrost. Boreal forest development, therefore, has an impact on permafrost evolution, especially under a warming climate. Forest disturbances and changing climate conditions cause vegetation shifts and potentially destabilize the carbon stored within the vegetation and permafrost. Disturbed permafrost-forest ecosystems can develop into a dry or swampy bush- or grasslands, shift toward broadleaf- or evergreen needleleaf-dominated forests, or recover to the pre-disturbance state. An increase in the number and intensity of fires, as well as intensified logging activities, could lead to a partial or complete ecosystem and permafrost degradation. We study the impact of forest disturbances (logging, surface, and canopy fires) on the thermal and hydrological permafrost conditions and ecosystem resilience. We use a dynamic multilayer canopy-permafrost model to simulate different scenarios at a study site in eastern Siberia. We implement expected mortality, defoliation, and ground surface changes and analyze the interplay between forest recovery and permafrost. We find that forest loss induces soil drying of up to 44%, leading to lower active layer thicknesses and abrupt or steady decline of a larch forest, depending on disturbance intensity. Only after surface fires, the most common disturbances, inducing low mortality rates, forests can recover and overpass pre-disturbance leaf area index values. We find that the trajectory of larch forests after surface fires is dependent on the precipitation conditions in the years after the disturbance. Dryer years can drastically change the direction of the larch forest development within the studied period. KW - permafrost KW - boreal forest KW - periglacial process KW - Siberia KW - larch forest KW - disturbance Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006630 SN - 2169-8953 SN - 2169-8961 VL - 127 IS - 5 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Angelopoulos, Michael A1 - Overduin, Pier Paul A1 - Westermann, Sebastian A1 - Tronicke, Jens A1 - Strauss, Jens A1 - Schirrmeister, Lutz A1 - Biskaborn, Boris A1 - Liebner, Susanne A1 - Maksimov, Georgii A1 - Grigoriev, Mikhail N. A1 - Grosse, Guido T1 - Thermokarst lake to lagoon transitions in Eastern Siberia BT - do submerged taliks refreeze? JF - Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface N2 - As the Arctic coast erodes, it drains thermokarst lakes, transforming them into lagoons, and, eventually, integrates them into subsea permafrost. Lagoons represent the first stage of a thermokarst lake transition to a marine setting and possibly more saline and colder upper boundary conditions. In this research, borehole data, electrical resistivity surveying, and modeling of heat and salt diffusion were carried out at Polar Fox Lagoon on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Polar Fox Lagoon is a seasonally isolated water body connected to Tiksi Bay through a channel, leading to hypersaline waters under the ice cover. The boreholes in the center of the lagoon revealed floating ice and a saline cryotic bed underlain by a saline cryotic talik, a thin ice-bearing permafrost layer, and unfrozen ground. The bathymetry showed that most of the lagoon had bedfast ice in spring. In bedfast ice areas, the electrical resistivity profiles suggested that an unfrozen saline layer was underlain by a thick layer of refrozen talik. The modeling showed that thermokarst lake taliks can refreeze when submerged in saltwater with mean annual bottom water temperatures below or slightly above 0 degrees C. This occurs, because the top-down chemical degradation of newly formed ice-bearing permafrost is slower than the refreezing of the talik. Hence, lagoons may precondition taliks with a layer of ice-bearing permafrost before encroachment by the sea, and this frozen layer may act as a cap on gas migration out of the underlying talik. KW - thermokarst lake KW - talik KW - lagoon KW - subsea permafrost KW - salt diffusion KW - Siberia Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005424 SN - 2169-9003 SN - 2169-9011 VL - 125 IS - 10 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wieczorek, Mareike A1 - Kolmogorov, Alexei A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Jacobsen, Inga A1 - Nitze, Ingmar A1 - Nikolaev, Anatoly N. A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Disturbance-effects on treeline larch-stands in the lower Kolyma River area (NE Siberia) JF - Silva Fennica : a quarterly journal for forest science N2 - Tree stands in the boreal treeline ecotone are, in addition to climate change, impacted by disturbances such as fire, water-related disturbances and logging. We aim to understand how these disturbances affect growth, age structure, and spatial patterns of larch stands in the north-eastern Siberian treeline ecotone (lower Kolyma River region), an insufficiently researched region. Stand structure of Larix cajanderi Mayr was studied at seven sites impacted by disturbances. Maximum tree age ranged from 44 to 300 years. Young to medium-aged stands had, independent of disturbance type, the highest stand densities with over 4000 larch trees per ha. These sites also had the highest growth rates for tree height and stem diameter. Overall lowest stand densities were found in a polygonal field at the northern end of the study area, with larches growing in distinct " tree islands". At all sites, saplings are significantly clustered. Differences in fire severity led to contrasting stand structures with respect to tree, recruit, and overall stand densities. While a low severity fire resulted in low-density stands with high proportions of small and young larches, high severity fires resulted in high-density stands with high proportions of big trees. At waterdisturbed sites, stand structure varied between waterlogged and drained sites and latitude. These mixed effects of climate and disturbance make it difficult to predict future stand characteristics and the treeline position. KW - treeline KW - Larix cajanderi KW - Siberia KW - fire KW - stand structure Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.1666 SN - 0037-5330 SN - 2242-4075 VL - 51 IS - 3 PB - The Finnish Society of Forest Science CY - Helsinki ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tian, Fang A1 - Cao, Xianyong A1 - Dallmeyer, Anne A1 - Lohmann, Gerrit A1 - Zhang, Xu A1 - Ni, Jian A1 - Andreev, Andrei A1 - Anderson, Patricia M. A1 - Lozhkin, Anatoly V. A1 - Bezrukova, Elena A1 - Rudaya, Natalia A1 - Xu, Qinghai A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Biome changes and their inferred climatic drivers in northern and eastern continental Asia at selected times since 40 cal ka BP JF - Vegetation History and Archaeobotany N2 - Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the "arctic greening") will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species. KW - Siberia KW - China KW - Northern Asia KW - Model-data comparison KW - Pollen KW - Permafrost KW - Vegetation-climate disequilibrium Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-017-0653-8 SN - 0939-6314 SN - 1617-6278 VL - 27 IS - 2 SP - 365 EP - 379 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Legacy of the Last Glacial on the present-day distribution of deciduous versus evergreen boreal forests JF - Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology N2 - Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales. KW - boreal forests KW - Glacial refugia KW - Holocene KW - Larix larch KW - permafrost ecosystems KW - Palaeoecology KW - Siberia KW - vegetation-climate-fire-soil feedbacks KW - vegetation states KW - vegetation trajectories Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13018 SN - 1466-822X SN - 1466-8238 VL - 29 IS - 2 SP - 198 EP - 206 PB - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Holm, Stine T1 - Methanogenic communities and metaplasmidome-encoded functions in permafrost environments exposed to thaw N2 - This thesis investigates how the permafrost microbiota responds to global warming. In detail, the constraints behind methane production in thawing permafrost were linked to methanogenic activity, abundance and composition. Furthermore, this thesis offers new insights into microbial adaptions to the changing environmental conditions during global warming. This was assesed by investigating the potential ecological relevant functions encoded by plasmid DNA within the permafrost microbiota. Permafrost of both interglacial and glacial origin spanning the Holocene to the late Pleistocene, including Eemian, were studied during long-term thaw incubations. Furthermore, several permafrost cores of different stratigraphy, soil type and vegetation cover were used to target the main constraints behind methane production during short-term thaw simulations. Short- and long-term incubations simulating thaw with and without the addition of substrate were combined with activity measurements, amplicon and metagenomic sequencing of permanently frozen and seasonally thawed active layer. Combined, it allowed to address the following questions. i) What constraints methane production when permafrost thaws and how is this linked to methanogenic activity, abundance and composition? ii) How does the methanogenic community composition change during long-term thawing conditions? iii) Which potential ecological relevant functions are encoded by plasmid DNA in active layer soils? The major outcomes of this thesis are as follows. i) Methane production from permafrost after long-term thaw simulation was found to be constrained mainly by the abundance of methanogens and the archaeal community composition. Deposits formed during periods of warmer temperatures and increased precipitation, (here represented by deposits from the Late Pleistocene of both interstadial and interglacial periods) were found to respond strongest to thawing conditions and to contain an archaeal community dominated by methanogenic archaea (40% and 100% of all detected archaea). Methanogenic population size and carbon density were identified as main predictors for potential methane production in thawing permafrost in short-term incubations when substrate was sufficiently available. ii) Besides determining the methanogenic activity after long-term thaw, the paleoenvironmental conditions were also found to influence the response of the methanogenic community composition. Substantial shifts within methanogenic community structure and a drop in diversity were observed in deposits formed during warmer periods, but not in deposits from stadials, when colder and drier conditions occurred. Overall, a shift towards a dominance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens was observed in all samples, except for the oldest interglacial deposits from the Eemian, which displayed a potential dominance of acetoclastic methanogens. The Eemian, which is discussed to serve as an analogue to current climate conditions, contained highly active methanogenic communities. However, all potential limitation of methane production after permafrost thaw, it means methanogenic community structure, methanogenic population size, and substrate pool might be overcome after permafrost had thawed on the long-term. iii) Enrichments with soil from the seasonally thawed active layer revealed that its plasmid DNA (‘metaplasmidome’) carries stress-response genes. In particular it encoded antibiotic resistance genes, heavy metal resistance genes, cold shock proteins and genes encoding UV-protection. Those are functions that are directly involved in the adaptation of microbial communities to stresses in polar environments. It was further found that metaplasmidomes from the Siberian active layer originate mainly from Gammaproteobacteria. By applying enrichment cultures followed by plasmid DNA extraction it was possible to obtain a higher average contigs length and significantly higher recovery of plasmid sequences than from extracting plasmid sequences from metagenomes. The approach of analyzing ‘metaplasmidomes’ established in this thesis is therefore suitable for studying the ecological role of plasmids in polar environments in general. This thesis emphasizes that including microbial community dynamics have the potential to improve permafrost-carbon projections. Microbially mediated methane release from permafrost environments may significantly impact future climate change. This thesis identified drivers of methanogenic composition, abundance and activity in thawing permafrost landscapes. Finally, this thesis underlines the importance to study how the current warming Arctic affects microbial communities in order to gain more insight into microbial response and adaptation strategies. N2 - Diese Dissertation untersucht die Reaktion der Permafrost-Mikrobiota auf die globale Erwärmung. Im Detail wurden mögliche Faktoren, die die Methanproduktion in tauendem Permafrost einschränken, im Zusammenhang methanogener Aktivität, Abundanz und Gemeinschaftszusammensetzung untersucht. Darüber hinaus bietet diese Dissertation neue Einblicke in mikrobielle Anpassungen an die sich ändernden Umweltbedingungen während der globalen Erwärmung. Dies wurde durch Untersuchung der potenziell ökologisch relevanten Funktionen bewertet, die von Plasmid-DNA innerhalb der Permafrost-Mikrobiota codiert werden. Permafrost, der seinen Ursprung in den Interglazialen und Glazialen aus dem Holozän bis zum späten Pleistozän, einschließlich des Eem, hat, wurde in Langzeit-Tau-Inkubationen untersucht. Darüber hinaus wurden mehrere Permafrostkerne mit unterschiedlicher Stratigraphie, Vegetationsbedeckung und unterschiedlichem Bodentyp verwendet, um die Faktoren, die die Methanproduktion während kurzfristiger Auftausimulationen bestimmen, zu ermitteln. Kurz- und Langzeitinkubationen, die das Auftauen mit und ohne Zugabe von Substrat in Kombination mit Aktivitätsmessungen, Amplikon- und Metagenom-Sequenzierung von permanent gefrorenem und saisonal aufgetautem Boden simulieren, ermöglichten die Beantwortung folgender Fragen: i) Welche Faktoren hemmen die Methanproduktion beim Auftauen des Permafrosts und wie hängt dies mit der Aktivität, Abundanz und Zusammensetzung methanogener Organismen zusammen? ii) Wie verändert sich die Gemeinschaftszusammensetzung methanogener Organismen unter langfristigen Auftaubedingungen? iii) Welche potenziell ökologisch relevanten Funktionen werden von Plasmid-DNA in saisonal getauten Böden kodiert? Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit können wie folgt zusammengefasst werden. i) Die Methanproduktion in langfristig getautem Permafrost wird hauptsächlich durch die Anzahl der methanogenen Archaeen und ihrem Anteil innerhalb der Archaeen bestimmt. Ablagerungen, die in wärmeren Perioden mit erhöhtem Niederschlag gebildet wurden, reagierten am stärksten auf das Tauen und enthielten eine von Methanogenen dominierte Archaeen-Gemeinschaft. In Kurzzeitinkubationen mit ausreichender Verfügbarkeit von Substrat wurden die Populationsgröße der methanogenen Organismen und die Kohlenstoffdichte als Hauptprädiktoren für die potenzielle Methanproduktion beim Auftauen von Permafrost identifiziert. ii) Auch die paläoökologischen Bedingungen beeinflussen die Reaktion der methanogenen Gemeinschaft und Aktivität, wenn Permafrost taut. Es wurden erhebliche Verschiebungen innerhalb der Gemeinschaftsstruktur und ein Rückgang der Diversität in Ablagerungen beobachtet, die in wärmeren Perioden gebildet wurden, jedoch nicht bei Ablagerungen aus kälteren und trockeneren Perioden. Insgesamt wurde in allen Proben eine Verschiebung hin zu einer Dominanz von hydrogenotrophen Methanogenen beobachtet, mit Ausnahme der ältesten interglazialen Ablagerungen aus dem Eem, die eine potenzielle Dominanz von acetoklastischen Methanogenen aufwiesen. Das Eem, das als Analogon zu den aktuellen Klimabedingungen diskutiert wird, enthielt hochaktive methanogene Gemeinschaften. iii) Anreicherungen aus Boden der saisonalen Auftauschicht zeigten, dass die enthaltene Plasmid-DNA („Metaplasmidom“) Stress-Reaktions-Gene trägt. Insbesondere codierte die Plasmid-DNA Antibiotikaresistenzgene, Schwermetallresistenzgene, Kälteschock-proteine und Gene, für den UV-Schutz, also Funktionen, die direkt an der Anpassung mikrobieller Gemeinschaften an Stress in polaren Umgebungen beteiligt sind. Weiterhin stammten die Metaplasmidome der saisonalen Auftauschicht Sibiriens hauptsächlich von Gammaproteobakterien. Durch die Anreicherung von Kulturen, gefolgt von einer Extraktion der Plasmid-DNA, war es möglich, eine höhere durchschnittliche Contig-Länge und eine signifikant höhere Wiederherstellung von Plasmidsequenzen zu erhalten als durch Extrahieren von Plasmidsequenzen aus Metagenomen. Der in dieser Arbeit etablierte Ansatz zur Analyse von „Metaplasmidomen“ ist ein geeigneter Ansatz zur Untersuchung der ökologischen Rolle von Plasmiden in polaren Regionen insgesamt. Diese Dissertation hebt hervor, wie wichtig es ist, die Abundanz, Zusammensetzung und Funktionen der mikrobiellen Gemeinschaft in Permafrost-Kohlenstoff-Projektionen einzubeziehen, und zwar nicht nur, da die mikrobiell vermittelte Methanfreisetzung aus Permafrostablagerungen das Potenzial hat, den zukünftigen Klimawandel erheblich zu beeinflussen. Vielmehr wurden in dieser Arbeit Abhängigkeiten methanogener Gemeinschaftsstrukturen, Abundanz und Aktivität identifiziert. Abschließend verdeutlicht diese Arbeit, wie wichtig es ist zu untersuchen, wie sich die derzeitige Erwärmung der Arktis auf mikrobielle Gemeinschaften auswirkt, um Einblicke in mikrobielle Reaktions- und Anpassungsstrategien zu erhalten. KW - methanogenic archaea KW - methane KW - glacial and interglacial permafrost KW - Permafrost carbon feedback KW - carbon density KW - Siberia KW - Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk KW - active layer KW - plasmidome KW - stress-tolerance genes Y1 - 2020 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cao, Xianyong A1 - Tian, Fang A1 - Dallmeyer, Anne A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Northern Hemisphere biome changes (> 30 degrees N) since 40 cal ka BP and their driving factors inferred from model-data comparisons JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Biomisation KW - Climate warming KW - Europe KW - Holocene KW - Model-data comparison KW - Northern Asia KW - North America KW - Pollen KW - Siberia KW - Vegetation driver Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.034 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 220 SP - 291 EP - 309 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nitze, Ingmar A1 - Grosse, Guido A1 - Jones, Benjamin M. A1 - Arp, Christopher D. A1 - Ulrich, Mathias A1 - Fedorov, Alexander A1 - Veremeeva, Alexandra T1 - Landsat-Based Trend Analysis of Lake Dynamics across Northern Permafrost Regions JF - Remote sensing N2 - Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here, we present a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM, ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e., upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region. KW - lake dynamics KW - lake change KW - permafrost region KW - Landsat KW - Alaska KW - Siberia KW - thermokarst KW - trend analysis KW - machine-learning Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9070640 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 9 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER -