TY - JOUR A1 - Salamat, Mona A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Zare, Mehdi A1 - Amini, Mortaza T1 - The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings JF - Journal of seismology N2 - One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude mu is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m(max) for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mu is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of mu for the time interval T-f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence alpha = 0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T-f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m(max) = 8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of mu in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1 - alpha = 0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of mu is around mu = 7.16-8.23 in all seismic zones. KW - Maximum expected earthquake magnitude KW - Future time interval KW - Level of confidence KW - Iran Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9780-7 SN - 1383-4649 SN - 1573-157X VL - 22 IS - 6 SP - 1485 EP - 1498 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Omrani, Hadi A1 - Moazzen, Mohssen A1 - Oberhänsli, Roland T1 - Geodynamic evolution of the Sabzevar zone, northern central Iranian micro-continent JF - Mineralogy and petrology N2 - The Northern Central Iranian Micro-continent (CIM) represents Neotethys-related oceanic crust remnants, emplaced due to convergence between CIM and Eurasia plates during Eocene. Mafic and ultramafic units are exposed along the northern part of the CIM in the Sabzevar area. The geology and field relation of Sabzevar ophiolite indicate northward subduction of the Sabzevar basin. The average whole rock chemistry of mafic (gabbros) and ultramafic samples (lherzolite, harzburgite and dunite) is characterized by a range of MgO of 11.16-31.88, CaO 5.22-11.53 and Al2O3 2.77-14.57, respectively. Low LREE/HREE ratio of ultramafic samples is accompanied by enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) such as Sr, Pb and K. Mafic samples show two distinct groups with low and high LREE/HREE ratios. The spider diagram of mafic samples indicates enrichment in Sr, Pb and K and depletion in REE. Petrological and geochemical evidence and field relations show that the mafic rocks formed in a supra-subduction zone setting. Petrological studies reveal the role of fractional crystallization and assimilation effect by released fluids during subduction related generation of the Sabzevar mafic rocks. We suggest that the studied mafic rocks likely represent the basement of an initial island arc, which was generated in a supra-subduction zone setting within the Neotethys branch of the Sabzevar Ocean at the north of CIM. Copper, gold and chromite mineralizations are studied in relation to island arc setting and supra-subduction environment. Similarities in lithology, ophiolite age and mineralization between Sabzevar ophiolite and Bardaskan-Torbat Heydariyeh ophiolites testify for their separation due to rotation (or faulting) of the Central Iranian Micro-continent. KW - Supra-subduction zone KW - Ophiolite KW - Island arc KW - Mineralization KW - Neotethys KW - Iran Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00710-017-0505-3 SN - 0930-0708 SN - 1438-1168 VL - 112 IS - 1 SP - 65 EP - 83 PB - Springer CY - Wien ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dörfler, Thomas T1 - Die Sanktionsausschüsse zwischen Macht und Regeln T1 - Sanctions Committees Caught between Power and Rules JF - Vereinte Nationen : Zeitschrift für die Vereinten Nationen und ihre Sonderorganisationen N2 - Sanktionen sind ein wichtiges Instrument des UN-Sicherheitsrats zur Erhaltung des Weltfriedens. Viele zentrale Entscheidungen, wie etwa die Listung und Entlistung terrorverdächtiger Personen, werden fernab der Öffentlichkeit in Sanktionsausschüssen getroffen. Die Einsetzung dieser Ausschüsse hat die Entscheidungsdynamiken im Rat erheblich verändert. N2 - Sanctions are an important instrument of the United Nations Security Council to maintain international peace and security. The Council, however, transfers many decisions, such as the listing and delisting of individuals suspected of supporting terrorism, to its subsidiary sanctions committees, mostly beyond public scrutiny. The article explores, how the creation of sanctions committees has changed decision-making dynamics, how committee members can be committed to rules and what this might imply for Germany’s future role on the Council. KW - Al-Qaida KW - Iran KW - Sanktionen KW - Sicherheitsrat KW - Sudan KW - UN Security Council KW - Terrorismus KW - sanctions committee Y1 - 2018 SN - 0042-384X SN - 2366-6773 VL - 66 IS - 2 SP - 62 EP - 66 PB - BWV CY - Berlin ER -