TY - JOUR A1 - Rossberg, Axel G. A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Kratina, Pavel T1 - Dome patterns in pelagic size spectra reveal strong trophic cascades JF - Nature Communications N2 - In ecological communities, especially the pelagic zones of aquatic ecosystems, certain bodysize ranges are often over-represented compared to others. Community size spectra, the distributions of community biomass over the logarithmic body-mass axis, tend to exhibit regularly spaced local maxima, called "domes", separated by steep troughs. Contrasting established theory, we explain these dome patterns as manifestations of top-down trophic cascades along aquatic food chains. Compiling high quality size-spectrum data and comparing these with a size-spectrum model introduced in this study, we test this theory and develop a detailed picture of the mechanisms by which bottom-up and top-down effects interact to generate dome patterns. Results imply that strong top-down trophic cascades are common in freshwater communities, much more than hitherto demonstrated, and may arise in nutrient rich marine systems as well. Transferring insights from the general theory of nonlinear pattern formation to domes patterns, we provide new interpretations of past lake-manipulation experiments. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12289-0 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 10 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rosenbaum, Benjamin A1 - Raatz, Michael A1 - Weithoff, Guntram A1 - Fussmann, Gregor F. A1 - Gaedke, Ursula T1 - Estimating parameters from multiple time series of population dynamics using bayesian inference JF - Frontiers in ecology and evolution N2 - Empirical time series of interacting entities, e.g., species abundances, are highly useful to study ecological mechanisms. Mathematical models are valuable tools to further elucidate those mechanisms and underlying processes. However, obtaining an agreement between model predictions and experimental observations remains a demanding task. As models always abstract from reality one parameter often summarizes several properties. Parameter measurements are performed in additional experiments independent of the ones delivering the time series. Transferring these parameter values to different settings may result in incorrect parametrizations. On top of that, the properties of organisms and thus the respective parameter values may vary considerably. These issues limit the use of a priori model parametrizations. In this study, we present a method suited for a direct estimation of model parameters and their variability from experimental time series data. We combine numerical simulations of a continuous-time dynamical population model with Bayesian inference, using a hierarchical framework that allows for variability of individual parameters. The method is applied to a comprehensive set of time series from a laboratory predator-prey system that features both steady states and cyclic population dynamics. Our model predictions are able to reproduce both steady states and cyclic dynamics of the data. Additionally to the direct estimates of the parameter values, the Bayesian approach also provides their uncertainties. We found that fitting cyclic population dynamics, which contain more information on the process rates than steady states, yields more precise parameter estimates. We detected significant variability among parameters of different time series and identified the variation in the maximum growth rate of the prey as a source for the transition from steady states to cyclic dynamics. By lending more flexibility to the model, our approach facilitates parametrizations and shows more easily which patterns in time series can be explained also by simple models. Applying Bayesian inference and dynamical population models in conjunction may help to quantify the profound variability in organismal properties in nature. KW - Bayesian inference KW - chemostat experiments KW - ordinary differential equation KW - parameter estimation KW - population dynamics KW - predator prey KW - time series analysis KW - trait variability Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2018.00234 SN - 2296-701X VL - 6 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Raatz, Michael A1 - van Velzen, Ellen A1 - Gaedke, Ursula T1 - Co‐adaptation impacts the robustness of predator–prey dynamics against perturbations JF - Ecology and Evolution N2 - Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co‐adaptation in a predator–prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre‐ and post‐perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre‐perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations. KW - disturbance KW - evolutionary rescue KW - population dynamics KW - stability KW - trait adaptation Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5006 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 9 IS - 7 SP - 3823 EP - 3836 PB - John Wiley & Sons CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Perkins, Daniel M. A1 - Perna, Andrea A1 - Adrian, Rita A1 - Cermeño, Pedro A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Huete-Ortega, Maria A1 - White, Ethan P. A1 - Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel T1 - Energetic equivalence underpins the size structure of tree and phytoplankton communities T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The size structure of autotroph communities – the relative abundance of small vs. large individuals – shapes the functioning of ecosystems. Whether common mechanisms underpin the size structure of unicellular and multicellular autotrophs is, however, unknown. Using a global data compilation, we show that individual body masses in tree and phytoplankton communities follow power-law distributions and that the average exponents of these individual size distributions (ISD) differ. Phytoplankton communities are characterized by an average ISD exponent consistent with three-quarter-power scaling of metabolism with body mass and equivalence in energy use among mass classes. Tree communities deviate from this pattern in a manner consistent with equivalence in energy use among diameter size classes. Our findings suggest that whilst universal metabolic constraints ultimately underlie the emergent size structure of autotroph communities, divergent aspects of body size (volumetric vs. linear dimensions) shape the ecological outcome of metabolic scaling in forest vs. pelagic ecosystems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 684 KW - general quantitative theory KW - cell-size KW - forest structure KW - scaling relationships KW - marine-phytoplankton KW - metabolic ecology KW - distributions KW - abundance KW - biomass KW - allometry Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425695 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 684 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Perkins, Daniel M. A1 - Perna, Andrea A1 - Adrian, Rita A1 - Cermeno, Pedro A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Huete-Ortega, Maria A1 - White, Ethan P. A1 - Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel T1 - Energetic equivalence underpins the size structure of tree and phytoplankton communities JF - Nature Communications N2 - The size structure of autotroph communities - the relative abundance of small vs. large individuals - shapes the functioning of ecosystems. Whether common mechanisms underpin the size structure of unicellular and multicellular autotrophs is, however, unknown. Using a global data compilation, we show that individual body masses in tree and phytoplankton communities follow power-law distributions and that the average exponents of these individual size distributions (ISD) differ. Phytoplankton communities are characterized by an average ISD exponent consistent with three-quarter-power scaling of metabolism with body mass and equivalence in energy use among mass classes. Tree communities deviate from this pattern in a manner consistent with equivalence in energy use among diameter size classes. Our findings suggest that whilst universal metabolic constraints ultimately underlie the emergent size structure of autotroph communities, divergent aspects of body size (volumetric vs. linear dimensions) shape the ecological outcome of metabolic scaling in forest vs. pelagic ecosystems. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08039-3 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 10 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pennekamp, Frank A1 - Iles, Alison C. A1 - Garland, Joshua A1 - Brennan, Georgina A1 - Brose, Ulrich A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Jacob, Ute A1 - Kratina, Pavel A1 - Matthews, Blake A1 - Munch, Stephan A1 - Novak, Mark A1 - Palamara, Gian Marco A1 - Rall, Bjorn C. A1 - Rosenbaum, Benjamin A1 - Tabi, Andrea A1 - Ward, Colette A1 - Williams, Richard A1 - Ye, Hao A1 - Petchey, Owen L. T1 - The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting JF - Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America. KW - empirical dynamic modelling KW - forecasting KW - information theory KW - permutation entropy KW - population dynamics KW - time series analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1359 SN - 0012-9615 SN - 1557-7015 VL - 89 IS - 2 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Coloma, Sebastian A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Sivonen, Kaarina A1 - Hiltunen, Teppo T1 - Frequency of virus-resistant hosts determines experimental community dynamics JF - Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America N2 - Parasites, such as bacterial viruses (phages), can have large effects on host populations both at the ecological and evolutionary levels. In the case of cyanobacteria, phages can reduce primary production and infected hosts release intracellular nutrients influencing planktonic food web structure, community dynamics, and biogeochemical cycles. Cyanophages may be of great importance in aquatic food webs during large cyanobacterial blooms unless the host population becomes resistant to phage infection. The consequences on plankton community dynamics of the evolution of phage resistance in bloom forming cyanobacterial populations are still poorly studied. Here, we examined the effect of different frequencies of a phage-resistant genotype within a filamentous nitrogen-fixing Nodularia spumigena population on an experimental plankton community. Three Nodularia populations with different initial frequencies (0%, 5%, and 50%) of phage-resistant genotypes were inoculated in separate treatments with the phage 2AV2, the green alga Chlorella vulgaris, and the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis, which formed the experimental plankton community subjected to either nitrogen-limited or nitrogen-rich conditions. We found that the frequency of the phage-resistant Nodularia genotype determined experimental community dynamics. Cyanobacterial populations with a high frequency (50%) of the phage-resistant genotype dominated the cultures despite the presence of phages, retaining most of the intracellular nitrogen in the plankton community. In contrast, populations with low frequencies (0% and 5%) of the phage-resistant genotype were lysed and reduced to extinction by the phage, transferring the intracellular nitrogen held by Nodularia to Chlorella and rotifers, and allowing Chlorella to dominate the communities and rotifers to survive. This study shows that even though phages represent minuscule biomass, they can have key effects on community composition and eco-evolutionary feedbacks in plankton communities. KW - cyanobacteria KW - eco-evolutionary feedbacks KW - experimental evolution KW - host-parasite interaction KW - phage resistance KW - predator-prey interaction Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2554 SN - 0012-9658 SN - 1939-9170 VL - 100 IS - 1 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ceulemans, Ruben A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Klauschies, Toni A1 - Guill, Christian T1 - The effects of functional diversity on biomass production, variability, and resilience of ecosystem functions in a tritrophic system T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Diverse communities can adjust their trait composition to altered environmental conditions, which may strongly influence their dynamics. Previous studies of trait-based models mainly considered only one or two trophic levels, whereas most natural system are at least tritrophic. Therefore, we investigated how the addition of trait variation to each trophic level influences population and community dynamics in a tritrophic model. Examining the phase relationships between species of adjacent trophic levels informs about the strength of top-down or bottom-up control in non-steadystate situations. Phase relationships within a trophic level highlight compensatory dynamical patterns between functionally different species, which are responsible for dampening the community temporal variability. Furthermore, even without trait variation, our tritrophic model always exhibits regions with two alternative states with either weak or strong nutrient exploitation, and correspondingly low or high biomass production at the top level. However, adding trait variation increased the basin of attraction of the high-production state, and decreased the likelihood of a critical transition from the high- to the lowproduction state with no apparent early warning signals. Hence, our study shows that trait variation enhances resource use efficiency, production, stability, and resilience of entire food webs. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 744 KW - early-warning signals KW - top-down control KW - community ecology KW - regime shifts KW - food webs KW - compensatory dynamics KW - consumer diversity KW - metabolic theory KW - rapid evolution KW - stable states Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-435439 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 744 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ceulemans, Ruben A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Klauschies, Toni A1 - Guill, Christian T1 - The effects of functional diversity on biomass production, variability, and resilience of ecosystem functions in a tritrophic system JF - Scientific Reports N2 - Diverse communities can adjust their trait composition to altered environmental conditions, which may strongly influence their dynamics. Previous studies of trait-based models mainly considered only one or two trophic levels, whereas most natural system are at least tritrophic. Therefore, we investigated how the addition of trait variation to each trophic level influences population and community dynamics in a tritrophic model. Examining the phase relationships between species of adjacent trophic levels informs about the strength of top-down or bottom-up control in non-steadystate situations. Phase relationships within a trophic level highlight compensatory dynamical patterns between functionally different species, which are responsible for dampening the community temporal variability. Furthermore, even without trait variation, our tritrophic model always exhibits regions with two alternative states with either weak or strong nutrient exploitation, and correspondingly low or high biomass production at the top level. However, adding trait variation increased the basin of attraction of the high-production state, and decreased the likelihood of a critical transition from the high- to the lowproduction state with no apparent early warning signals. Hence, our study shows that trait variation enhances resource use efficiency, production, stability, and resilience of entire food webs. KW - early-warning signals KW - top-down control KW - community ecology KW - regime shifts KW - food webs KW - compensatory dynamics KW - consumer diversity KW - metabolic theory KW - rapid evolution KW - stable states Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43974-1 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 9 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Blasius, Bernd A1 - Rudolf, Lars A1 - Weithoff, Guntram A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Fussmann, Gregor F. T1 - Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1857-0 SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 577 IS - 7789 SP - 226 EP - 230 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER -